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Linking Climate Change and Socio-economic Impact for Long-term Urban Growth in Three Mega-cities
- Date Issued:
- 2017
- Abstract/Description:
- Urbanization has become a global trend under the impact of population growth, socio-economic development, and globalization. However, the interactions between climate change and urban growth in the context of economic geography are unclear due to missing links in between the recent planning megacities. This study aims to conduct a multi-temporal change analysis of land use and land cover in New York City, City of London, and Beijing using a cellular automata-based Markov chain model collaborating with fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria evaluation to predict the city's future land use changes for 2030 and 2050 under the background of climate change.To determine future natural forcing impacts on land use in these megacities, the study highlighted the need for integrating spatiotemporal modeling analyses, such as Statistical Downscale Modeling (SDSM) driven by climate change, and geospatial intelligence techniques, such as remote sensing and geographical information system, in support of urban growth assessment. These SDSM findings along with current land use policies and socio-economic impact were included as either factors or constraints in a cellular automata-based Markov Chain model to simulate and predict land use changes in megacities for 2030 and 2050. Urban expansion is expected in these megacities given the assumption of stationarity in urban growth process, although climate change impacts the land use changes and management. More land use protection should be addressed in order to alleviate the impact of climate change.
Title: | Linking Climate Change and Socio-economic Impact for Long-term Urban Growth in Three Mega-cities. |
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Name(s): |
Lu, Qi, Author Chang, Ni-bin, Committee Chair Wanielista, Martin, Committee Member Kibler, Kelly, Committee Member University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor |
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Type of Resource: | text | |
Date Issued: | 2017 | |
Publisher: | University of Central Florida | |
Language(s): | English | |
Abstract/Description: | Urbanization has become a global trend under the impact of population growth, socio-economic development, and globalization. However, the interactions between climate change and urban growth in the context of economic geography are unclear due to missing links in between the recent planning megacities. This study aims to conduct a multi-temporal change analysis of land use and land cover in New York City, City of London, and Beijing using a cellular automata-based Markov chain model collaborating with fuzzy set theory and multi-criteria evaluation to predict the city's future land use changes for 2030 and 2050 under the background of climate change.To determine future natural forcing impacts on land use in these megacities, the study highlighted the need for integrating spatiotemporal modeling analyses, such as Statistical Downscale Modeling (SDSM) driven by climate change, and geospatial intelligence techniques, such as remote sensing and geographical information system, in support of urban growth assessment. These SDSM findings along with current land use policies and socio-economic impact were included as either factors or constraints in a cellular automata-based Markov Chain model to simulate and predict land use changes in megacities for 2030 and 2050. Urban expansion is expected in these megacities given the assumption of stationarity in urban growth process, although climate change impacts the land use changes and management. More land use protection should be addressed in order to alleviate the impact of climate change. | |
Identifier: | CFE0006761 (IID), ucf:51865 (fedora) | |
Note(s): |
2017-08-01 M.S. Engineering and Computer Science, Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering Masters This record was generated from author submitted information. |
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Subject(s): | urban growth -- megacity -- cellular automata -- Markov chain | |
Persistent Link to This Record: | http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006761 | |
Restrictions on Access: | public 2017-08-15 | |
Host Institution: | UCF |