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Safety investigation of traffic crashes incorporating spatial correlation effects

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Date Issued:
2018
Abstract/Description:
One main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among lower- and middle-income countries where most road traffic deaths (90%) occur. This includes Middle Eastern countries, necessitating a thorough investigation and diagnosis of the issues and factors instigating traffic crashes in the region in order to reduce these serious traffic crashes. Since pedestrians are more vulnerable to traffic crashes compared to other road users, especially in this region, a safety investigation of pedestrian crashes is crucial to improving traffic safety. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is one of the largest Middle East metropolises, is used as an example to reflect the representation of these countries' characteristics, where Saudi Arabia has a rather distinct situation in that it is considered a high-income country, and yet it has the highest rate of traffic fatalities compared to their high-income counterparts. Therefore, in this research, several statistical methods are used to investigate the association between traffic crash frequency and contributing factors of crash data, which are characterized by 1) geographical referencing (i.e., observed at specific locations) or spatially varying over geographic units when modeled; 2) correlation between different response variables (e.g., crash counts by severity or type levels); and 3) temporally correlated. A Bayesian multivariate spatial model is developed for predicting crash counts by severity and type. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, policy makers would be able to suggest appropriate safety countermeasures for each type of crash in each zone.
Title: Safety investigation of traffic crashes incorporating spatial correlation effects.
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Name(s): Alkahtani, Khalid, Author
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Committee Chair
Radwan, Essam, Committee Member
Eluru, Naveen, Committee Member
Lee, JaeYoung, Committee Member
Zheng, Qipeng, Committee Member
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2018
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: One main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among lower- and middle-income countries where most road traffic deaths (90%) occur. This includes Middle Eastern countries, necessitating a thorough investigation and diagnosis of the issues and factors instigating traffic crashes in the region in order to reduce these serious traffic crashes. Since pedestrians are more vulnerable to traffic crashes compared to other road users, especially in this region, a safety investigation of pedestrian crashes is crucial to improving traffic safety. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is one of the largest Middle East metropolises, is used as an example to reflect the representation of these countries' characteristics, where Saudi Arabia has a rather distinct situation in that it is considered a high-income country, and yet it has the highest rate of traffic fatalities compared to their high-income counterparts. Therefore, in this research, several statistical methods are used to investigate the association between traffic crash frequency and contributing factors of crash data, which are characterized by 1) geographical referencing (i.e., observed at specific locations) or spatially varying over geographic units when modeled; 2) correlation between different response variables (e.g., crash counts by severity or type levels); and 3) temporally correlated. A Bayesian multivariate spatial model is developed for predicting crash counts by severity and type. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, policy makers would be able to suggest appropriate safety countermeasures for each type of crash in each zone.
Identifier: CFE0007148 (IID), ucf:52324 (fedora)
Note(s): 2018-08-01
Ph.D.
Engineering and Computer Science, Civil, Environmental and Construction Engineering
Doctoral
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): Multivariate spatial
Macro-Level Analysis
Crash type models
Crash severity models
Spatial correlation
Bayesian models
Poisson Lognormal
CAR
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007148
Restrictions on Access: public 2018-08-15
Host Institution: UCF

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