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THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS
Title
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS.
Creator
Kazazis, Collin J., Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly...
Show moreThis thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly problematic. By utilizing the Operational Code, this study creates a new threat-perception variable based on cognitive constructs. Using a sample of US presidents, this new variable is tested in two different ways. The first examines three psychological characteristics (need for power, in-group bias, and distrust) from Leadership Trait Analysis that are thought to influence the level of threat perception in a leader. The second examines threat perception as an explanatory variable for the use of force alongside three other important control variables (economic violence, presidential popularity, and US power). The use of force variable is derived from Meernik's Use of Force dataset with each case in the dataset representing an opportunity to use force. The psychological data are derived from the verbal material of US presidents using at-a-distance methods found in the literature. OLS regression and probit are used to model the research questions. The project finds that levels of threat perception are indeed affected by a leader's level of distrust, in-group bias, and need for power. In addition, the new psychologically-derived threat-perception variable is a very good predictor of a president's use of force: presidents with higher levels of threat perception have a much higher probability of using force when the situation presents an opportunity.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000559, ucf:45649
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000559
Leader Psychology and Civil War Behavior
Title
Leader Psychology and Civil War Behavior.
Creator
Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Kang, Kyungkook, Powell, Jonathan, Walker, Stephen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
How do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their...
Show moreHow do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their psychological characteristics can affect the likelihood, severity, and duration of civil conflicts. The findings of this research provide further support for the general hypothesis that leaders can, and often do, matter when trying to explain policy outcomes. More importantly, the findings demonstrate that leaders can influence the likelihood of civil war onset, the severity of civil wars, and their duration. Additionally, this project investigates the effect that civil war severity has on the psychological characteristics of leaders. Contrary to some previous research, however, the findings here indicate that leaders' psychology may not be sensitive to civil conflict severity.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007375, ucf:52089
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007375
Noise Thinks the Anthropocene: An Experiment in Noise Poetics
Title
Noise Thinks the Anthropocene: An Experiment in Noise Poetics.
Creator
Zwintscher, Aaron, Mauer, Barry, Grajeda, Anthony, Rounsaville, Angela, Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This dissertation is a textual experiment in noise poetics. It is an experiment in that it results from indeterminate means, alternative grammar, and experimental thinking. The outcome was not predetermined. Noise poetics is the use of noise to explain, elucidate, and evoke (akin to other poetic forms) within the textual milieu in a manner that seeks to be less determinate and more improvisational than conventional writing. This text argues that noise poetics is a necessary form for...
Show moreThis dissertation is a textual experiment in noise poetics. It is an experiment in that it results from indeterminate means, alternative grammar, and experimental thinking. The outcome was not predetermined. Noise poetics is the use of noise to explain, elucidate, and evoke (akin to other poetic forms) within the textual milieu in a manner that seeks to be less determinate and more improvisational than conventional writing. This text argues that noise poetics is a necessary form for addressing political inequality, coexistence with the (nonhuman) other, the ecological crisis, and sustainability because it approaches these issues as system of interconnected fragments and excesses and thus has the potential to reach or envision solutions in novel ways. The experiment draws quotations and fragments from a diverse collection of noise theory texts, arranged and assembled via indeterminate cut-up methods based on the work of several prominent artists and theorists (John Cage and William Burroughs among them). The experimental text (contained in full in Appendix B) was then edited and added to in order to craft the textual project into an argument for noise poetics that followed the juxtaposed lines of thought towards possible conclusions and practical applications. This project coincided with and was supplemented by bruit jouissance, a multimedia audiovisual noise project (contained and explicated in Appendix A). The two projects together are two applications of thoryvology (an articulation of noise theory created and presented within the text) and as complementary methods of viewing and understanding each other.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006679, ucf:51911
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006679
Governmental Responses to Terrorism: Creating Costs and Benefits
Title
Governmental Responses to Terrorism: Creating Costs and Benefits.
Creator
Klose, Kenneth, Dolan, Thomas, Schafer, Mark, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unlessresponses reduce an organization's capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of...
Show moreThis thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unlessresponses reduce an organization's capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of government action on terrorism in Algeria and thePhilippines. In general, the results show that conciliation may led to increases in terrorism in the short term while suggesting potential reductions in the long term. Denial and legal restriction often led to increases in terrorism, while the effects of violence often depended upon whether the response was applied to organizations or their leaders.
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Date Issued
2013
Identifier
CFE0004872, ucf:49670
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004872
Deadly Premonition: Does Terrorist-Leader Psychology Influence Violence Lethality?
Title
Deadly Premonition: Does Terrorist-Leader Psychology Influence Violence Lethality?.
Creator
Besaw, Clayton, Schafer, Mark, Jacques, Peter, Mousseau, Michael, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis seeks to address a theoretical and empirical gap within terrorism studies, and more specially the study of terrorist-group lethality. This research updates a model of terrorist-group lethality by including terrorist-leader psychology as an individual-level variable in predicting terrorist-group lethality. Terrorist-leader statements were analyzed by using two novel coding schemes called Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis to create quantified measurements of leader...
Show moreThis thesis seeks to address a theoretical and empirical gap within terrorism studies, and more specially the study of terrorist-group lethality. This research updates a model of terrorist-group lethality by including terrorist-leader psychology as an individual-level variable in predicting terrorist-group lethality. Terrorist-leader statements were analyzed by using two novel coding schemes called Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis to create quantified measurements of leader cognitive beliefs and personality traits. The empirical portion of this study utilizes pooled cross-sectional time-series data within the framework of fixed effects and multi-level estimation models. The results find that terrorist-leader psychology, and more specifically Instrumental (Strategic) Beliefs and Distrust, are significant predictors of subsequent group-lethality.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005132, ucf:50679
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005132
Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code
Title
Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code.
Creator
George, William, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Does the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used...
Show moreDoes the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used ordered logistic regression across three models to determine the effect of the operational code on state crisis behavior while controlling for key domestic and crisis dimension variables. Predicted probabilities were also used to better demonstrate the variables' substantive effects. The 50 cases used in this research are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Dataset composed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld, and they focus on the United States as the major crisis actor. Operational code data were derived from computer-based content analysis using the Verbs In Context System (Walker, Schafer, and Young 1998). The theoretical goal of this paper was to explain variance in state crisis behavior through variations in the operational codes of US Presidents. The results demonstrate that the operational codes of leaders do affect state crisis behavior. Specifically, the operational code indices P1 and I1 show that a leader with a more conflictual view of the nature of the political universe and a conflictual direction of strategy is more likely to employ escalatory crisis behavior.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005336, ucf:50528
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005336
Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes
Title
Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes.
Creator
Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Pollock, Philip, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait...
Show moreDoes a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005418, ucf:50423
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005418
The Effects of State Leader Psychology on Civil War Lethality
Title
The Effects of State Leader Psychology on Civil War Lethality.
Creator
Kelley, Brandon, Vasquez, Joseph, Dolan, Thomas, Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Does a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits...
Show moreDoes a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits and operational code indices, specifically direction of strategy (I1) and interpretation of the nature of the political universe (P1). The data and cases used are pulled from datasets by Dr. James Fearon and the Correlates of War Project. The leaders' speech content is derived primarily from prepared material and analyzed using verbal content analysis via Profiler Plus. In measuring the effects of the predictors on my dependent variable, I chose the methodological approach of count data models, specifically, zero-truncated negative binomial regression. The results from the eight models I ran show that specific psychological traits, particularly a leader's I1 and P1 scores, level of distrust, and need for power, do play a significant role when determining the causes of civil war lethality.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005358, ucf:50469
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005358
Tea Time: A Comparative Analysis of the Tea Party Caucus and House Republican Conference in the One Hundred Twelfth Congress
Title
Tea Time: A Comparative Analysis of the Tea Party Caucus and House Republican Conference in the One Hundred Twelfth Congress.
Creator
Phillips, Stephen, Pollock, Philip, Ilderton, Nathan, Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Following the historic election of Barack Obama, the largest overhaul of the nation's health care system since the Great Society, and with the country still reeling from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, a group of disenchanted conservative Republicans and elected leaders wary of government policy gave rise to a new political movement (-) the Tea Party. Since taking the American political system by storm in 2010, considerable research has focused on the electoral...
Show moreFollowing the historic election of Barack Obama, the largest overhaul of the nation's health care system since the Great Society, and with the country still reeling from the worst economic downturn since the Great Depression, a group of disenchanted conservative Republicans and elected leaders wary of government policy gave rise to a new political movement (-) the Tea Party. Since taking the American political system by storm in 2010, considerable research has focused on the electoral consequences of the Tea Party. Using an original dataset and the American National Election Study, I study the Tea Party Caucus at the elite level by analyzing roll call votes, incumbency, and endorsements, and at the mass level through an examination of congressional districts and constituencies. Findings show that members of the Tea Party Caucus and their Republican House colleagues are largely homogeneous. Exceptions to this include economic final passage votes, legislation receiving presidential support, district lean, census region, and presidential vote in congressional districts. Furthermore, evidence is seen that economic factors in members' districts affected the election of freshmen representatives in 2010, and that district variables strongly influence legislative voting behavior. Finally, discontinuity is discovered between the Tea Party movement at the mass level and the Tea Party Caucus at the elite level.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005229, ucf:50574
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005229
An Analysis of the Effect of Involuntary Mobility on Student Achievement as Measured by the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test
Title
An Analysis of the Effect of Involuntary Mobility on Student Achievement as Measured by the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test.
Creator
Mullins, Mark, Murray, Barbara, Murray, Kenneth, Schafer, Karen, Carter, James, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This study examined the impact of involuntary mobility on the academic achievement of tenth grade students in a Central Florida school district. Students of involuntary mobility were selected as the result of new attendance boundaries due to new high school construction. Students were compared against non-mobile peers at schools of like demographics (i.e. poverty level and ethnicity). Mobility status (involuntary or no mobility) was the independent variable. The dependent variable, academic...
Show moreThis study examined the impact of involuntary mobility on the academic achievement of tenth grade students in a Central Florida school district. Students of involuntary mobility were selected as the result of new attendance boundaries due to new high school construction. Students were compared against non-mobile peers at schools of like demographics (i.e. poverty level and ethnicity). Mobility status (involuntary or no mobility) was the independent variable. The dependent variable, academic achievement, was measured by students’ tenth grade developmental scale scores in reading and mathematics on the Florida Comprehensive Assessment Test. Students’ ninth grade test scores were used as a covariate to control for students’ prior achievement and isolate the impact of mobility. Additional subgroups (minority and poverty) were compared to determine if involuntary mobility had a more significant impact on these groups. Finally, a hierarchical linear regression was used to determine if a model for reading and mathematics could be used to predict future academic performance for students of involuntary mobility. Findings showed consistently there was no statistically significant difference in the achievement performance among groups or subgroups and the subject tests of reading and/or mathematics with one exception. There was a statistically significant difference in mathematics achievement in the all students group when comparing those students of involuntary mobility with students of stability. Students of mobility actually indicated a modest level of higher achievement than non-mobile peers. The hierarchical linear model was found to be marginally significant for predicting achievement among involuntary mobility students in the area of mathematics, but not necessarily in reading. Future research recommendations include broadening the research to additional grade-levels. This research only considered the impact of achievement on high school students. Future research should consider similar impact on students at both the elementary and/or middle school levels. Qualitative measures would provide additional information, particularly the perceptions and experiences that stakeholders have throughout the involuntary mobility process. Other at-risk subgroups, particularly those of residential mobility and/or previous retention, provide additional considerations that would add to this body of research. Finally, involuntary mobility as the result of school closings would provide additional insight as this factor often has public negative perceptions.
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Date Issued
2011
Identifier
CFE0004144, ucf:49055
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004144