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HURRICANE EVACUATION: ORIGIN, ROUTE AND DESTINATION
Title
HURRICANE EVACUATION: ORIGIN, ROUTE AND DESTINATION.
Creator
Dixit, Vinayak, Radwan, Essam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Recent natural disasters have highlighted the need to evacuate people as quickly as possible. During hurricane Rita in 2005, people were stuck in queue buildups and large scale congestions, due to improper use of capacity, planning and inadequate response to vehicle breakdown, flooding and accidents. Every minute is precious in situation of such disaster scenarios. Understanding evacuation demand loading is an essential part of any evacuation planning. One of the factors often understood to...
Show moreRecent natural disasters have highlighted the need to evacuate people as quickly as possible. During hurricane Rita in 2005, people were stuck in queue buildups and large scale congestions, due to improper use of capacity, planning and inadequate response to vehicle breakdown, flooding and accidents. Every minute is precious in situation of such disaster scenarios. Understanding evacuation demand loading is an essential part of any evacuation planning. One of the factors often understood to effect evacuation, but not modeled has been the effect of a previous hurricane. This has also been termed as the 'Katrina Effect', where, due to the devastation caused by hurricane Katrina, large number of people decided to evacuate during Hurricane Rita, which hit Texas three weeks after Katrina hit Louisiana. An important aspect influencing the rate of evacuation loading is Evacuation Preparation Time also referred to as 'Mobilization time' in literature. A methodology to model the effect of a recent past hurricane on the mobilization times for evacuees in an evacuation has been presented utilizing simultaneous estimation techniques. The errors for the two simultaneously estimated models were significantly correlated, confirming the idea that a previous hurricane does significantly affect evacuation during a subsequent hurricane. The results show that the home ownership, number of individuals in the household, income levels, and level/risk of surge were significant in the model explaining the mobilization times for the households. Pet ownership and number of kids in the households, known to increase the mobilization times during isolated hurricanes, were not found to be significant in the model. Evacuation operations are marred by unexpected blockages, breakdown of vehicles and sudden flooding of transportation infrastructure. A fast and accurate simulation model to incorporate flexibility into the evacuation planning procedure is required to react to such situations. Presently evacuation guidelines are prepared by the local emergency management, by testing various scenarios utilizing micro-simulation, which is extremely time consuming and do not provide flexibility to evacuation plans. To gain computational speed there is a need to move away from the level of detail of a micro-simulation to more aggregated simulation models. The Cell Transmission Model which is a mesoscopic simulation model is considered, and compared with VISSIM a microscopic simulation model. It was observed that the Cell Transmission Model was significantly faster compared to VISSIM, and was found to be accurate. The Cell Transmission model has a nice linear structure, which is utilized to construct Linear Programming Problems to determine optimal strategies. Optimization models were developed to determine strategies for optimal scheduling of evacuation orders and optimal crossover locations for contraflow operations on freeways. A new strategy termed as 'Dynamic Crossovers Strategy' is proposed to alleviate congestion due to lane blockages (due to vehicle breakdowns, incidents etc.). This research finds that the strategy of implementing dynamic crossovers in the event of lane blockages does improve evacuation operations. The optimization model provides a framework within which optimal strategies are determined quickly, without the need to test multiple scenarios using simulation. Destination networks are the cause of the main bottlenecks for evacuation routes, such aspects of transportation networks are rarely studied as part of evacuation operations. This research studies destination networks from a macroscopic perspective. Various relationships between network level macroscopic variables (Average Flow, Average Density and Average speed) over the network were studied. Utilizing these relationships, a "Network Breathing Strategy" was proposed to improve dissipation of evacuating traffic into the destination networks. The network breathing strategy is a cyclic process of allowing vehicles to enter the network till the network reaches congestion, which is followed by closure of their entry into the network until the network reaches an acceptable state. After which entrance into the network is allowed again. The intuitive motivation behind this methodology is to ensure that the network does not remain in congested conditions. The term 'Network Breathing' was coined due to the analogy seen between this strategy to the process of breathing, where vehicles are inhaled by the network (vehicles allowed in) and dissipated by the network (vehicles are not allowed in). It is shown that the network breathing improves the dissipation of vehicle into the destination network. Evacuation operations can be divided into three main levels: at the origin (region at risk), routes and destination. This research encompasses all the three aspects and proposes a framework to assess the whole system in its entirety. At the Origin the demand dictates when to schedule evacuation orders, it also dictates the capacity required on different routes. These breakthroughs will provide a framework for a real time Decision Support System which will help emergency management official make decisions faster and on the fly.
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Date Issued
2008
Identifier
CFE0002051, ucf:47589
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002051
Modeling Mass Care Resource Provision Post Hurricane
Title
Modeling Mass Care Resource Provision Post Hurricane.
Creator
Muhs, Tammy, Kincaid, John, Rollins, David, Dorman, Teresa, Taylor, Gregory, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Determining the amount of resources needed, specifically food and water, following a hurricane is not a straightforward task. Through this research effort, an estimating tool was developed that takes into account key demographic and evacuation behavioral effects, as well as hurricane storm specifics to estimate the number of meals required for the first fourteen days following a hurricane making landfall in the State of Florida. The Excel based estimating tool was created using data collected...
Show moreDetermining the amount of resources needed, specifically food and water, following a hurricane is not a straightforward task. Through this research effort, an estimating tool was developed that takes into account key demographic and evacuation behavioral effects, as well as hurricane storm specifics to estimate the number of meals required for the first fourteen days following a hurricane making landfall in the State of Florida. The Excel based estimating tool was created using data collected from four hurricanes making landfall in Florida during 2004-2005. The underlying model used in the tool is a Regression Decision Tree with predictor variables including direct impact, poverty level, and hurricane impact score. The hurricane impact score is a hurricane classification system resulting from this research that includes hurricane category, intensity, wind field size, and landfall location. The direct path of a hurricane, a higher than average proportion of residents below the poverty level, and the hurricane impact score were all found to have an effect on the number of meals required during the first fourteen days following a hurricane making landfall in the State of Florida.
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Date Issued
2011
Identifier
CFE0004143, ucf:49053
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004143
Understanding Crisis Communication and Mobility Resilience during Disasters from Social Media
Title
Understanding Crisis Communication and Mobility Resilience during Disasters from Social Media.
Creator
Roy, Kamol, Hasan, Samiul, Eluru, Naveen, Wu, Yina, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Rapid communication during extreme events is one of the critical aspects of successful disaster management strategies. Due to their ubiquitous nature, social media platforms offer a unique opportunity for crisis communication. Moreover, social media usage on GPS enabled devices such as smartphones allow us to collect human movement data which can help understanding mobility during a disaster. This study leverages social media (Twitter) data to understand the effectiveness of social media...
Show moreRapid communication during extreme events is one of the critical aspects of successful disaster management strategies. Due to their ubiquitous nature, social media platforms offer a unique opportunity for crisis communication. Moreover, social media usage on GPS enabled devices such as smartphones allow us to collect human movement data which can help understanding mobility during a disaster. This study leverages social media (Twitter) data to understand the effectiveness of social media-based communication and the resilience of human mobility during a disaster. This thesis has two major contributions. First, about 52.5 million tweets related to hurricane Sandy are analyzed to assess the effectiveness of social media communication during disasters and identify the contributing factors leading to effective crisis communication strategies. Effectiveness of a social media user is defined as the ratio of attention gained over the number of tweets posted. A model is developed to explain more effective users based on several relevant features. Results indicate that during a disaster event, only few social media users become highly effective in gaining attention. In addition, effectiveness does not depend on the frequency of tweeting activity only; instead it depends on the number of followers and friends, user category, bot score (controlled by a human or a machine), and activity patterns (predictability of activity frequency). Second, to quantify the impacts of an extreme event to human movements, we introduce the concept of mobility resilience which is defined as the ability of a mobility infrastructure system to manage shocks and return to a steady state in response to an extreme event. We present a method to detect extreme events from geo-located movement data and to measure mobility resilience and loss of resilience due to those events. Applying this method, we measure resilience metrics from geo-located social media data for multiple types of disasters occurred all over the world. Quantifying mobility resilience may help us to assess the higher-order socio-economic impacts of extreme events and guide policies towards developing resilient infrastructures as well as a nation's overall disaster resilience.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007362, ucf:52090
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007362