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DEFINING RISK ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR USE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATIONS
Title
DEFINING RISK ASSESSMENT CONFIDENCE LEVELS FOR USE IN PROJECT MANAGEMENT COMMUNICATIONS.
Creator
Johnson, Gary, Pet-Armacost, Julia, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
A review of the literature regarding risk management and effective risk communications identified that very few researchers have addressed risk assessment confidence levels when using risk scoring methods. The focus of this research is to develop a definition of risk assessment confidence levels for use in internal project management communications and to evaluate its usefulness. This research defines risk assessment confidence level as "The degree of certainty that the likelihood or...
Show moreA review of the literature regarding risk management and effective risk communications identified that very few researchers have addressed risk assessment confidence levels when using risk scoring methods. The focus of this research is to develop a definition of risk assessment confidence levels for use in internal project management communications and to evaluate its usefulness. This research defines risk assessment confidence level as "The degree of certainty that the likelihood or consequence score (assigned by the risk assessor) reflects reality." A specific level of confidence is defined based on the types of analyses that were conducted to determine the risk score. A survey method was used to obtain data from a representative sample of risk assessment professionals from industry and academia to measure their opinion on the usefulness of the defined risk assessment confidence levels. The survey consisted of seven questions related to usefulness--four questions addressed the importance of stating confidence levels in risk assessments and three addressed the usableness of the proposed confidence level. Data were collected on the role and experience level of each of the respondents and the survey also included a comment section to obtain additional feedback. The survey generated 364 respondents representing a broad variety of roles associated with decision making and risk management with experience levels from fairly new to experienced risk assessors. The survey data were analyzed by calculating the proportion of respondents who gave negative, neutral and positive responses to the survey questions. An examination of the roles of the survey respondents indicated that no single group was dominant. A non-parametric Kruskal-Wallis test generally failed to reject the hypothesis that the means of the survey response distributions were identical. There was one exception which indicated that there are differences based on role and by inspection of the responses, it appears that decision makers, academics, and others more strongly support the need for confidence level information to reduce the difficulty in making risk based decisions in projects. The survey responses at a confidence level of 95% have a range of errors from 3.84 to 4.97%. Based on the results of the survey, 77 – 83% of those surveyed indicated agreement that knowing the confidence the assessors have in their assessment is important and would improve a management decision. The survey showed that 60 – 86% of the respondents agreed that the confidence levels and their definitions as presented in the survey were usable. The question with the lowest agreement (60%) was related to the way in which the individual levels were defined. The ad-hoc comments provided in the survey were divided into eleven groups based on similarity of the subject of the comment and then examined for common themes. These added additional insight into the results and useful information for future research efforts. This research validates that the use of risk assessment confidence levels is considered to be useful in project risk management. The research also identified several potential areas for future work, including determining the appropriate number of confidence levels that should be defined, refining the definition of the individual confidence level definitions, examining historical perspectives of whether the risk assessments were accurate, examining the concept of shiftability of risk assessments, further research on communication of variability of risk assessments, and research into the usefulness of risk matrices.
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Date Issued
2008
Identifier
CFE0002352, ucf:47791
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002352
USDA Instructional Risk Messages for High Pathogen Avian Influenza
Title
USDA Instructional Risk Messages for High Pathogen Avian Influenza.
Creator
Jones, Jenna, Sellnow, Timothy, Littlefield, Robert, Sellnow, Deanna, Parrish, Adam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
High Pathogen Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease threatening United States poultry farms. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which current instructional risk communication by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) meets the expectations of existing literature, particularly the IDEA model. This study examined two documents produced by the USDA for the ongoing threat of HPAI, the Red Book and the Defend the Flock campaign. The aim of the documents...
Show moreHigh Pathogen Avian Influenza (HPAI) is a highly contagious disease threatening United States poultry farms. The aim of this study is to examine the extent to which current instructional risk communication by the United States Department of Agriculture (USDA) meets the expectations of existing literature, particularly the IDEA model. This study examined two documents produced by the USDA for the ongoing threat of HPAI, the Red Book and the Defend the Flock campaign. The aim of the documents is to provide U.S. poultry farmers and the publics with knowledge and information about prevention and response to HPAI. The IDEA model was applied to serve as a framework to analyze how much of each component was present in the messaging. Specifically, the internalization, explanation, and action components were applied to the USDA documents.The documents were coded by two researchers. The researchers, using a codebook, examined the documents and assessed each section (Red Book) or slogan (Defend the Flock) for the presence or absence of three components of the IDEA model: internalization, explanation, and action. When discrepancies arose between the coders, they were resolved through discussion. The results indicated the majority of the Red Book was dedicated to the explanation component of the IDEA model. Conversely, the majority of the Defend the Flock campaign was identified as either internalization or action.The findings in this study can serve as lessons learned to help to improve the effectiveness of instructional risk messaging in similar crises. Specifically, this study recommends that messages be adapted to the intended audience to help them recognize their personal risks, that explanatory messages be intertwined with recommended actions, and that organizations and agencies consider following the USDA's lead and provide complementary materials. For example, some materials may be highly detailed while an accompanying document could provide a simple, brief overview of the risk and recommended actions.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007023, ucf:52045
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007023