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Predicting Risk to Reoffend: Establishing the Validity of the Postive Achievement Change Tool
Title
Predicting Risk to Reoffend: Establishing the Validity of the Postive Achievement Change Tool.
Creator
Martin, Julie, Wan, Thomas, Winton, Mark, Martin, Lawrence, Chen, Hsueh-Fen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
In recent years, there has been increased reliance on the use of risk assessment in the juvenile justice system to predict and classify offenders based on their risk to reoffend. Over the years, the predictive validity of risk assessments has improved through the inclusion of actuarial assessment and dynamic risk factors. The predictive validity of certain assessments, such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), has been well established through numerous...
Show moreIn recent years, there has been increased reliance on the use of risk assessment in the juvenile justice system to predict and classify offenders based on their risk to reoffend. Over the years, the predictive validity of risk assessments has improved through the inclusion of actuarial assessment and dynamic risk factors. The predictive validity of certain assessments, such as the Youth Level of Service/Case Management Inventory (YLS/CMI), has been well established through numerous replication studies on different subgroups of the population. The validity of other instruments, such as the Positive Achievement Change Tool (PACT), is in its infancy having only been validated on the sample of the population for which it was created. The PACT, a relatively new juvenile risk assessment tool, was adapted from the Washington State Juvenile Court Assessment and validated on the Florida juvenile population. This study sought to demonstrate the predictive validity of the PACT risk assessment, analyze gender differences in juvenile recidivism, and determine the relative importance of individual-level, social-level, and community-level variables in the prediction of recidivism for a sample of juveniles in Tarrant County, Texas. The results of this research confirmed the predictive validity of the PACT for juveniles served by Tarrant County Juvenile Services (TCJS). Despite possessing adequate predictive validity for the entire population, gender-specific analyses revealed differences in the ability of the PACT to accurately classify female delinquents based on risk to reoffend. Not only did gender differences emerge in the predictive validity of the PACT, but males and female recidivism was also predicted by different social-level indicators. The results of this research provided further evidence for social-causation theories of crime and delinquency, with social-level indicators exerting the strongest relationship with recidivism when compared to individual-level and community-level predictors. The inability of community-level predictors to enhance the predictive accuracy of the assessment suggest broad application of the PACT across jurisdictions. TCJS has invested a considerable amount of time, resources, and funding in the implementation and maintenance of the PACT. The results of this study provided support and direction for the continued use of the PACT at TCJS. In addition, establishing the predictive validity of the PACT on the Tarrant County juvenile population satisfied the legislative requirement for a population specific validation of the risk assessment implemented in each county.
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Date Issued
2012
Identifier
CFE0004221, ucf:48992
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004221
FALL RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMMUNITY- DWELLING OLDER ADULTS: AN EXPLANATORY SEQUENTIAL MIXED METHODS STUDY
Title
FALL RISK ASSESSMENT IN COMMUNITY- DWELLING OLDER ADULTS: AN EXPLANATORY SEQUENTIAL MIXED METHODS STUDY.
Creator
Dool, MaryAnn, Thiamwong, Ladda, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Abstract Aims: 1) To determine fall risk assessment using subjective and objective measures; 2) To understand older adults' perception on fall risk assessment. Methodology: An explanatory sequential mixed methods design was used and consisted of two phases. Phase 1, the quantitative data was collected from nineteen older adults at an independent living facility in Orlando, Florida. Phase 2, the qualitative data was collected from three participants of Phase 1. After obtaining Institutional...
Show moreAbstract Aims: 1) To determine fall risk assessment using subjective and objective measures; 2) To understand older adults' perception on fall risk assessment. Methodology: An explanatory sequential mixed methods design was used and consisted of two phases. Phase 1, the quantitative data was collected from nineteen older adults at an independent living facility in Orlando, Florida. Phase 2, the qualitative data was collected from three participants of Phase 1. After obtaining Institutional Review Board approval, the study was conducted at Lutheran Towers an independent living facility located in the downtown area of Orlando, Florida. Three measurement tools were used: demographic data sheet, an objective tool: BTrackS Balance Test (BBT), and Short Falls Efficacy Scale-International (FES-I). Results: In phase 1, 37% of participants had a high risk for falls assessed by the objective measure (BBT), and about 11% had high concern of fall risk assessed by the subjective measure (Short FES-I). Approximately 32% had congruent results between subjective and objective measures and 68 % presented incongruent results between subjective and objective measures. In phase 2, three themes were generated from the qualitative data :1) Perception and experience on fall risk assessment; 2) Perception of the subjective measure (Short FES-I) and 3) Perception of the objective measure (BBT). Conclusion: Those who have incongruent perceptions of their fall risk and physical abilities are most at risk. Performing fall risk assessment using both subjective and objective measures is critical for developing fall prevention plans, to identify those most at risk.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000571, ucf:45616
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000571
PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AND NEED IN THE CLASSIFICATION AND SUPERVISION OF OFFENDERS IN THE COMMUNITY CORRECTIONS SETTING: THE ROLE OF GENDER
Title
PERCEPTIONS OF RISK AND NEED IN THE CLASSIFICATION AND SUPERVISION OF OFFENDERS IN THE COMMUNITY CORRECTIONS SETTING: THE ROLE OF GENDER.
Creator
Gould, Laurie, Paoline, Eugene, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Risk has emerged as a defining feature of punishment in the United States. Feeley and Simon (1992) note that contemporary punishment is increasingly moving away from rehabilitation (the old penology) and moving toward the management and control of offenders (the new penology), often though actuarial techniques. While the profusion of risk assessment instruments, now entering their fourth generation, provides some support for the assertion that risk is indeed an important element in...
Show moreRisk has emerged as a defining feature of punishment in the United States. Feeley and Simon (1992) note that contemporary punishment is increasingly moving away from rehabilitation (the old penology) and moving toward the management and control of offenders (the new penology), often though actuarial techniques. While the profusion of risk assessment instruments, now entering their fourth generation, provides some support for the assertion that risk is indeed an important element in corrections, it was previously unknown if the risk model applied to all offenders, particularly female offenders. This dissertation addressed that gap by examining whether the risk model applied to female offenders in the community corrections setting. This dissertation surveyed 93 community corrections officers employed by the Orange County Community Corrections Department. The findings suggest that the department has incorporated many elements of the new penology into the classification and supervision of offenders in each of its units, though several gender differences were noted. Classification overrides, the perceived level of risk to the community, supervision decisions, and the perceived importance of risk and need factors were all examined in this study. The results indicate that some elements of classification and supervision function uniformly for offenders and operate irrespective of gender, but some areas, such as the perceived level of risk to the community and the perceived importance of risk factors, are influenced by gender.
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Date Issued
2008
Identifier
CFE0002008, ucf:47623
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002008
Site Specific Sinkhole risk assessment in Central Florida using Cone Penetration Testing
Title
Site Specific Sinkhole risk assessment in Central Florida using Cone Penetration Testing.
Creator
Shamet, Ryan, Nam, Boo Hyun, Chopra, Manoj, Wang, Dingbao, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
As Florida's population is expanding and greater fluctuations in groundwater levels are being recorded, Central Florida has been experiencing a higher frequency of sinkhole occurrences than ever before in recorded history. Sinkholes in Central Florida are formed by a combination of bedrock weathering and overburden soil erosion due to the groundwater recharge and are a part of Florida's past and future geology. The initial stage of a sinkhole is referred to as soil raveling and is the most...
Show moreAs Florida's population is expanding and greater fluctuations in groundwater levels are being recorded, Central Florida has been experiencing a higher frequency of sinkhole occurrences than ever before in recorded history. Sinkholes in Central Florida are formed by a combination of bedrock weathering and overburden soil erosion due to the groundwater recharge and are a part of Florida's past and future geology. The initial stage of a sinkhole is referred to as soil raveling and is the most effective time to perform soil improvement measures, such as grouting, to mitigate further expansion of a subterranean void. Subsurface exploration tests, commonly implemented by geotechnical engineers for site characterization, have been shown to detect these sinkhole anomalies even when no signs of subsidence are evident on the ground surface. Secondary geophysical testing has also been proven to detect sinkhole raveling anomalies, but at the expense of additional time and money added to the specific project. In this study, current practices in detecting premature sinkholes were expanded upon with a primary focus on Cone Penetrometer testing data (CPT). Cone Penetrometer tests provide valuable high-resolution quantitative information regarding the discrete strength characteristics of relatively loose sandy and clayey subsoil. CPTs are also much quicker and cleaner to perform when compared to other subsurface testing procedures (e.g. Standard penetration tests). Therefore, CPTs were chosen for this study to understand how they can be implemented to assess risk of future sinkhole collapse, or other karst construction concerns, in Central Florida specific soils. By implementing the findings presented in this report, Geotechnical engineers and contractors in central Florida will be able to practically evaluate the size and severity of potential forming sinkhole without the use of additional subsurface geophysical testing. The results of this study hope to eliminate extraneous testing costs, as well as maximize the efficiency of estimating mitigation products and procedures required all while still ensuring a safe design in Central Florida's highly karst areas.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006657, ucf:51246
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006657
Coupling Infrastructure Resilience and Flood Risk Assessment for a Coastal Urban Watershed
Title
Coupling Infrastructure Resilience and Flood Risk Assessment for a Coastal Urban Watershed.
Creator
Joyce, Justin, Chang, Ni-bin, Mayo, Talea, Wanielista, Martin, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis sheds light on coupling potential flood risk and drainage infrastructure resilience of low-lying areas of a coastal urban watershed to flood hazards and subsequent multi-scale impacts of those hazards via detailed modeling frameworks. Physically based models along with statistical models are employed to highlight the complexity for characterizing flood risk while evaluating such risk under various levels of adaptive capacity from traditional flood management techniques to low...
Show moreThis thesis sheds light on coupling potential flood risk and drainage infrastructure resilience of low-lying areas of a coastal urban watershed to flood hazards and subsequent multi-scale impacts of those hazards via detailed modeling frameworks. Physically based models along with statistical models are employed to highlight the complexity for characterizing flood risk while evaluating such risk under various levels of adaptive capacity from traditional flood management techniques to low impact development (LID), as a first step to conduct resilience assessment. Findings indicate that the coupling flood risk and infrastructure resilience is achievable by the careful formulation of flood risk associated with a resilience metric, which is a function of the hazard(s) considered, vulnerability and adaptive capacity. The results also give insights into improving existing methodologies for municipalities in flood management practices such as incorporating multi-criteria flood risk evaluation that includes resilience.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006748, ucf:51844
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006748