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THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SURGES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH

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Date Issued:
2011
Abstract/Description:
The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.
Title: THE IMPACT OF OIL PRICE SURGES ON ECONOMIC GROWTH.
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Name(s): Restrepo, Valeria, Author
Hofler, Richard, Committee Chair
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2011
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: The objective of this research concerns identifying whether or not there is a relationship between oil price increases in a given quarter and the likelihood of a recession in the subsequent quarter. The data used is gathered from the St. Louis Fed Fred II, the National Bureau of Economic Research, and the Energy Information Administration to generate modified variables. These variables are tested using a qualitative dependent variable, recession, in a binary choice model. The findings validated the assumption that oil prices do have a correlation with recessions, and that the relationship is a direct one. Based on the model, an increase in the price of oil will positively affect the likelihood of a "recession" outcome versus the alternative, "no recession". It is anticipated that the results will inspire future research into the causes and effects of oil price surges, as well as the determinants of economic contractions in the future based on policy decisions and economic decision-making practices in the present.
Identifier: CFH0004088 (IID), ucf:44804 (fedora)
Note(s): 2011-12-01
B.S.B.A.
Business Administration, Dept. of Economics
Bachelors
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): recessions
oil prices
price surges
oil shocks
gdp
gross domestic product
economic growth
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004088
Restrictions on Access: public
Host Institution: UCF

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