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HEURISTIC PRIORITIZATION OF EMERGENCY EVACUATION STAGING TO REDUCE CLEARANCE TIME

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Date Issued:
2006
Abstract/Description:
A region's evacuation strategy encompasses a variety of areas and needs. Primary among these is the minimization of total evacuation time, represented in models as the clearance time estimate (CTE). A generic testbed simulation network model was developed. An input/output (I/O) analysis was performed to establish a theoretical baseline CTE. Results were compared with simulations; analysis showed that the I/O method underestimated simulated CTE as a function of network size, with a correction factor range of 1.09 to 1.19. A regression model was developed for the generic network. Predictors were total trips, and network size defined as a function of origin-destination distance. Total Trips ranged between 40,000 and 60,000. Holding size constant, R-squared values ranged from 97.1 to 99.3, indicating a high goodness of fit. Holding Total Trips constant, R-squared values ranged from 74.5 to 89.2. Finally, both Total Trips and size were used as predictors; the resulting regression model had an R-squared value of 97.3. This overall model is more useful, since real world situations are not fixed in nature. The overall regression model was compared to a case network. The generic network regression model provided a close CTE approximation; deltas ranged from -4.7% to 8.6%. It was concluded that a generic network can serve as a surrogate for a case network over these ranges. This study developed and evaluated heuristic strategies for evacuation using the generic network. Strategies were compared with a simultaneous departure loading scenario. Six different grouping strategies were evaluated. An initial evaluation was conducted using the generic network, and strategies that showed potential CTE reduction were implemented on the case study network. Analysis indicated that the HF-10 (half-far) grouping for 60k total trips showed potential reduction. A complete simulation was conducted on the case network for all HF scenarios; an ANOVA was run using Dunnett's comparison. Results indicated that the HF grouping with 20% and 30% departure shifts showed potential for CTE reduction. From this it was concluded that the generic network could be used as a testbed for strategies that would show success on a case network.
Title: HEURISTIC PRIORITIZATION OF EMERGENCY EVACUATION STAGING TO REDUCE CLEARANCE TIME.
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Name(s): Mitchell, Steven, Author
Radwan, Essam, Committee Chair
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2006
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: A region's evacuation strategy encompasses a variety of areas and needs. Primary among these is the minimization of total evacuation time, represented in models as the clearance time estimate (CTE). A generic testbed simulation network model was developed. An input/output (I/O) analysis was performed to establish a theoretical baseline CTE. Results were compared with simulations; analysis showed that the I/O method underestimated simulated CTE as a function of network size, with a correction factor range of 1.09 to 1.19. A regression model was developed for the generic network. Predictors were total trips, and network size defined as a function of origin-destination distance. Total Trips ranged between 40,000 and 60,000. Holding size constant, R-squared values ranged from 97.1 to 99.3, indicating a high goodness of fit. Holding Total Trips constant, R-squared values ranged from 74.5 to 89.2. Finally, both Total Trips and size were used as predictors; the resulting regression model had an R-squared value of 97.3. This overall model is more useful, since real world situations are not fixed in nature. The overall regression model was compared to a case network. The generic network regression model provided a close CTE approximation; deltas ranged from -4.7% to 8.6%. It was concluded that a generic network can serve as a surrogate for a case network over these ranges. This study developed and evaluated heuristic strategies for evacuation using the generic network. Strategies were compared with a simultaneous departure loading scenario. Six different grouping strategies were evaluated. An initial evaluation was conducted using the generic network, and strategies that showed potential CTE reduction were implemented on the case study network. Analysis indicated that the HF-10 (half-far) grouping for 60k total trips showed potential reduction. A complete simulation was conducted on the case network for all HF scenarios; an ANOVA was run using Dunnett's comparison. Results indicated that the HF grouping with 20% and 30% departure shifts showed potential for CTE reduction. From this it was concluded that the generic network could be used as a testbed for strategies that would show success on a case network.
Identifier: CFE0001098 (IID), ucf:46777 (fedora)
Note(s): 2006-05-01
Ph.D.
Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Civil and Environmental Engineering
Doctorate
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): Emergency evacuation
Simulation
Network capacity
Travel demand
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001098
Restrictions on Access: public
Host Institution: UCF

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