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AN EXAMINATION OF CENTRAL ASIAN GEOPOLITICS THROUGH THE EXPECTED UTILITY MODEL: THE NEW GREAT GAME

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Date Issued:
2009
Abstract/Description:
The New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data were used to develop balance of power positions and compare the outcome of 100 simulations to the actual outcome in 2000 based on Correlates of War project data. This allows us to judge whether the emergence of Russia's weak advantage as well as the continuation of the competition in the New Great Game as of 2000 could have been predicted based on what was known in 1992 and 1993. By using only one year's data to forecast the New Great Game, we are able to eliminate historical and researcher bias and judge the applicability of the model in global policy and strategic analysis.
Title: AN EXAMINATION OF CENTRAL ASIAN GEOPOLITICS THROUGH THE EXPECTED UTILITY MODEL: THE NEW GREAT GAME.
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Name(s): Stutte, Corey, Author
Wan, Thomas, Committee Chair
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2009
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: The New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data were used to develop balance of power positions and compare the outcome of 100 simulations to the actual outcome in 2000 based on Correlates of War project data. This allows us to judge whether the emergence of Russia's weak advantage as well as the continuation of the competition in the New Great Game as of 2000 could have been predicted based on what was known in 1992 and 1993. By using only one year's data to forecast the New Great Game, we are able to eliminate historical and researcher bias and judge the applicability of the model in global policy and strategic analysis.
Identifier: CFE0002861 (IID), ucf:48088 (fedora)
Note(s): 2009-12-01
Ph.D.
Health and Public Affairs, Other
Doctorate
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): Central Asia
New Great Game
Expected Utility Model
Expected Utility
Public Policy Informatics
International Relations
Foreign Policy
Conflict Studies
Caspian
Game Theory
Military Studies
Geopolitics
Realism
Balance of Power
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002861
Restrictions on Access: public
Host Institution: UCF

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