You are here

Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes

Download pdf | Full Screen View

Date Issued:
2014
Abstract/Description:
Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.
Title: Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes.
34 views
9 downloads
Name(s): Smith, Gary, Author
Schafer, Mark, Committee Chair
Dolan, Thomas, Committee Member
Pollock, Philip, Committee Member
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2014
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.
Identifier: CFE0005418 (IID), ucf:50423 (fedora)
Note(s): 2014-08-01
M.A.
Sciences, Political Science
Masters
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): Political Psychology -- Militarized Interstate Disputes -- Foreign Policy Decision-Making -- International Conflict
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005418
Restrictions on Access: public 2014-08-15
Host Institution: UCF

In Collections