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Calibrating a System Dynamic Model Within an Integrative Framework to Test Foreign Policy Choices
| Title: | Calibrating a System Dynamic Model Within an Integrative Framework to Test Foreign Policy Choices. |
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| Name(s): |
Kavetsky, Carlos, Author Morrow, Patricia Bockelman, Committee Chair Wiegand, Rudolf, Committee CoChair Wu, Annie, Committee Member Akbas, Ilhan, Committee Member University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor |
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| Type of Resource: | text | |
| Date Issued: | 2017 | |
| Publisher: | University of Central Florida | |
| Language(s): | English | |
| Abstract/Description: | Political science uses international relations (IR) theory to explain state-actor political behavior. Research suggests that this theoretical framework can inform a predictive model incorporating features of systems dynamics (SD) and agent based (AB) modeling. The Foreign Policy Model (ForPol) herein applies Alexander Y. Lubyansky's (2014) SD model for macro-political behavior to represent behaviors between real systems and mental models. While verifying and validating the resulting SD/AB/IR holistic model requires an extensive comprehensive research agenda, the present work will take a closer examination at input parameter calibration and conducting typical runs of the SD portion of the model as a first step in the testing, verification and validation process of the proposed integrative model. This thesis proposes incorporating an AB paradigm drawn from work by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (2009), Edward P. MacKerrow (2003), David L. Rousseau (2006), Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell (1996) as a future hybrid extension.The model applies a SD approach for the modeling of macro-political aggregate behavior. Therefore, the deep analysis of the SD portion of ForPol is modeled and calibrated in Vensim, using empirical data from the 1967 Arab-Israeli Six Day War as a pilot. Interactions within the model actualize Choucri, et. al. (2006), definition of state stability and agent behavior aspects of Cioffi-Revilla's (2009) SimPol polity model. Following calibration results discussion, the present work closes with consideration of future research directions. | |
| Identifier: | CFE0006750 (IID), ucf:51848 (fedora) | |
| Note(s): |
2017-08-01 M.S. Engineering and Computer Science, Dean's Office GRDST Masters This record was generated from author submitted information. |
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| Subject(s): |
System Dynamic Agaent-Based Political Simulation Input Parameter Calibration Foreign Policy |
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| Persistent Link to This Record: | http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006750 | |
| Restrictions on Access: | public 2017-08-15 | |
| Host Institution: | UCF |
