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AN IMPACT EVALUATION OF U.S. ARMS EXPORT CONTROLS ON THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE: AN INTERRUPTED TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS.

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Date Issued:
2011
Abstract/Description:
The United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers are the arms export controls of the US. These controls impose a divergence from the historical US foreign policy of furthering an open exchange of ideas and liberalized trade. These controls, imposed by the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State rigidly control all international presence of the Industry. The overlapping controls create an inability to conform to rapidly changing realpolitiks, leaving these controls in an archaic state. This, in turn, imposes a great deal of anxiety and expense upon managers within and outside of the USDIB. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analyses, this paper confirms that the implementation of or amendment to broad arms export controls correlates to significant and near immediate declines in USDIB export volumes. In the context of the US's share of world arms exports, these controls impose up to a 20% decline in export volume.
Title: AN IMPACT EVALUATION OF U.S. ARMS EXPORT CONTROLS ON THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE: AN INTERRUPTED TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS.
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Name(s): Condron, Aaron, Author
Sweo, Robert, Committee Chair
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2011
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: The United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers are the arms export controls of the US. These controls impose a divergence from the historical US foreign policy of furthering an open exchange of ideas and liberalized trade. These controls, imposed by the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State rigidly control all international presence of the Industry. The overlapping controls create an inability to conform to rapidly changing realpolitiks, leaving these controls in an archaic state. This, in turn, imposes a great deal of anxiety and expense upon managers within and outside of the USDIB. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analyses, this paper confirms that the implementation of or amendment to broad arms export controls correlates to significant and near immediate declines in USDIB export volumes. In the context of the US's share of world arms exports, these controls impose up to a 20% decline in export volume.
Identifier: CFH0004064 (IID), ucf:44785 (fedora)
Note(s): 2011-08-01
B.S.B.A.
Business Administration, Dept. of Finance
Undergraduate
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): ITAR
Defense Industry
Interrupted Time Series Analysis
ARIMA
United States
U.S.
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004064
Restrictions on Access: public 2011-07-01
Host Institution: UCF

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