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IMPROVING PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH SIMULATION AND COMPLETION DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS

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Date Issued:
2004
Abstract/Description:
Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. Uncertainty has been identified as a contributing factor in late projects. This uncertainty resides in activity duration estimates, unplanned upsetting events, and the potential unavailability of critical resources. This research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion-time risk assessments. The methodology enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used to determine a project's completion distribution function. The project simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. Deterministic inputs include planned activities and resource requirements. Stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for unplanned upsetting events, and other dynamic constraints upon project activities. Stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Multiple replications of the simulation are run to create the completion distribution function. The methodology was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. Project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions. The first result was improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.
Title: IMPROVING PROJECT MANAGEMENT WITH SIMULATION AND COMPLETION DISTRIBUTION FUNCTIONS.
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Name(s): Cates, Grant, Author
Mollaghasemi, Mansooreh, Committee Chair
University of Central Florida, Degree Grantor
Type of Resource: text
Date Issued: 2004
Publisher: University of Central Florida
Language(s): English
Abstract/Description: Despite the critical importance of project completion timeliness, management practices in place today remain inadequate for addressing the persistent problem of project completion tardiness. Uncertainty has been identified as a contributing factor in late projects. This uncertainty resides in activity duration estimates, unplanned upsetting events, and the potential unavailability of critical resources. This research developed a comprehensive simulation based methodology for conducting quantitative project completion-time risk assessments. The methodology enables project stakeholders to visualize uncertainty or risk, i.e. the likelihood of their project completing late and the magnitude of the lateness, by providing them with a completion time distribution function of their projects. Discrete event simulation is used to determine a project's completion distribution function. The project simulation is populated with both deterministic and stochastic elements. Deterministic inputs include planned activities and resource requirements. Stochastic inputs include activity duration growth distributions, probabilities for unplanned upsetting events, and other dynamic constraints upon project activities. Stochastic inputs are based upon past data from similar projects. The time for an entity to complete the simulation network, subject to both the deterministic and stochastic factors, represents the time to complete the project. Multiple replications of the simulation are run to create the completion distribution function. The methodology was demonstrated to be effective for the on-going project to assemble the International Space Station. Approximately $500 million per month is being spent on this project, which is scheduled to complete by 2010. Project stakeholders participated in determining and managing completion distribution functions. The first result was improved project completion risk awareness. Secondly, mitigation options were analyzed to improve project completion performance and reduce total project cost.
Identifier: CFE0000209 (IID), ucf:46243 (fedora)
Note(s): 2004-12-01
Ph.D.
Engineering and Computer Science, Department of Industrial Engineering and Management Systems
Doctorate
This record was generated from author submitted information.
Subject(s): project management
discrete event simulation
quantitative risk analysis
completion distribution functions
Space Shuttle
International Space Station
Persistent Link to This Record: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0000209
Restrictions on Access: public
Host Institution: UCF

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