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Title: Impact of the longer change and clearance intervals on signalized intersections and corridors.
Creator: Alfawzan, Mohammed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Abou-Senna, Hatem, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Evaluating the impact of longer change and clearance intervals on signalized intersections and corridors is the main goal of this study. In fact, the Florida department of Transportation (FDOT) has adopted a new signal retiming effort in a number of signalized intersections along several corridors. The Orange County started implementing the new signal timing from December, 2013 and completed it in June, 2015. The other objective of this new signal timing is to minimize the red light running...
Show moreEvaluating the impact of longer change and clearance intervals on signalized intersections and corridors is the main goal of this study. In fact, the Florida department of Transportation (FDOT) has adopted a new signal retiming effort in a number of signalized intersections along several corridors. The Orange County started implementing the new signal timing from December, 2013 and completed it in June, 2015. The other objective of this new signal timing is to minimize the red light running rate. This study is dedicated to investigate the signal retiming effort adopted by the FDOT and how the new signal timing might impact the studied signalized intersections' performance and safety. To address this issue, a number of signalized intersections along three corridors in Orange County were investigated during different three time of the day periods AM, MD, and PM. Additionally, three categories of signal timings were adopted to better understand the performance and safety of old (pattern 1), current (pattern 2), and proposed (pattern 3) signal timings. The analysis was based on the Simtraffic simulation which is a part of Synchro 8 software. The research results provide that the signalized intersection's performance along the three corridors during the three plans of the day were found significantly affected by lengthening the change and clearance intervals. Signal timing 2 and 3 were observed significantly different than signal timing 1 which have greater intersection delay, queue length, intersection overall volume to capacity v/c ratio, and Intersection capacity utilization ICU. Furthermore, the results show that the signal timing 2 and signal timing 3 significantly increase the total delay and travel time along the studied arterials during the three plans of the day.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006064, ucf:50970
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006064

Title: Analysis of pedestrian safety using micro-simulation and driving simulator.
Creator: Wu, Jiawei, Radwan, Essam, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Abou-Senna, Hatem, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: In recent years, traffic agencies have begun to place emphasis on the importance of pedestrian safety. In the United States, nearly 70,000 pedestrians were reported injured in 2015. Although the number only account for 3% of all the people injured in traffic crashes, the number of pedestrian fatalities is still around 15% of total traffic fatalities. Furthermore, the state of Florida has consistently ranked as one of the worst states in terms of pedestrian crashes, injuries and fatalities....
Show moreIn recent years, traffic agencies have begun to place emphasis on the importance of pedestrian safety. In the United States, nearly 70,000 pedestrians were reported injured in 2015. Although the number only account for 3% of all the people injured in traffic crashes, the number of pedestrian fatalities is still around 15% of total traffic fatalities. Furthermore, the state of Florida has consistently ranked as one of the worst states in terms of pedestrian crashes, injuries and fatalities. Therefore, it is befitting to focus on the pedestrian safety. This dissertation mainly focused on pedestrian safety at both midblock crossings and intersections by using micro-simulation and driving simulator. First, this study examined if the micro-simulation models (VISSIM and SSAM) could estimate pedestrian-vehicle conflicts at signalized intersections. A total of 42 video-hours were recorded at seven signalized intersections for field data collection. The observed conflicts from the field were used to calibrate VISSIM and replicate the conflicts. The calibrated and validated VISSIM model generated the pedestrian-vehicle conflicts from SSAM software using the vehicle trajectory data in VISSIM. The mean absolute percent error (MAPE) was used to determine the optimum TTC and PET thresholds for pedestrian-vehicle conflicts and linear regression analysis was used to study the correlation between the observed and simulated conflicts at the established thresholds. The results indicated the highest correlation between the simulated and observed conflicts when the TTC parameter was set at 2.7 and the PET was set at 8. Second, the driving simulator experiment was designed to assess pedestrian safety under different potential risk factors at both midblock crossings and intersections. Four potential risk factors were selected and 67 subjects participated in this experiment. In order to analyze pedestrian safety, the surrogate safety measures were examined to evaluate these pedestrian-vehicle conflicts. Third, by using the driving simulator data from the midblock crossing scenario, typical examples of drivers' deceleration rate and the distance to crosswalk were summarized, which exhibited a clear drivers' avoidance pattern during the vehicle pedestrian conflicts. This pattern was summarized into four stages, including the brake response stage, the deceleration adjustment stage, the maximum deceleration stage, and the brake release stage. In addition, the pedestrian-vehicle conflict prediction model was built to predict the minimum distance between vehicle and pedestrian.Finally, this study summarized the three different kinds of data that were to evaluate the pedestrian safety, including field data, simulation data, and driving simulator data. The process of combining of field data, simulation data, and simulator data was proposed. The process would show how the researches could evaluate the pedestrian safety by using the field observations, micro-simulation, and driving simulator.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006822, ucf:51770
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006822

Title: Estimating a Freight Mode Choice Model: A Case Study of Commodity Flow Survey 2012.
Creator: Keya, Nowreen, Eluru, Naveen, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This research effort develops a national freight mode choice model employing data from the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS). While several research efforts have developed mode choice model with multiple modes in the passenger travel context, the literature is sparse in the freight context. The primary reasons being unavailability and/or the high cost associated with the acquisition of mode choice and level of service (LOS) measures (-) such as travel time and travel cost. The first...
Show moreThis research effort develops a national freight mode choice model employing data from the 2012 Commodity Flow Survey (CFS). While several research efforts have developed mode choice model with multiple modes in the passenger travel context, the literature is sparse in the freight context. The primary reasons being unavailability and/or the high cost associated with the acquisition of mode choice and level of service (LOS) measures (-) such as travel time and travel cost. The first contribution of the research effort is to develop travel time and cost measures for various modes reported in the CFS. The study considers five modes: hire truck, private truck, air, parcel service and other modes (rail, ship, pipeline, and other miscellaneous single and multiple modes). The LOS estimation is undertaken for a sample of CFS 2012 data that is partitioned into estimation sample and holdout sample. Subsequently, a mixed multinomial logit model is developed using the estimation sample. The exogenous variables considered in the model include LOS measures, freight characteristics, and transportation network and Origin-Destination variables. The model also accounts for unobserved factors that influence the mode choice process. The estimated mode choice model is validated using the holdout sample. Finally, a policy sensitivity analysis is conducted to illustrate the applicability of the proposed model.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006835, ucf:51766
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006835

Title: Determining the Feasibility of using Micro Simulation to asses safety of Pedestrian Crossings.
Creator: Darius, Jenner, Radwan, Essam, Abou-Senna, Hatem, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: For the past several decades, pedestrian safety has been an oncoming issue that has thrown the area of transportation engineering into a frenzy. Pedestrian safety has become predominantly one of the leading causes of fatalities in traffic accidents. Florida has been reported as one of the leading states in pedestrian fatalities with 2.56 fatality rate per 100,000 population and about 20 percent of all traffic fatalities in the state of Florida. Nonetheless, as research is being done and...
Show moreFor the past several decades, pedestrian safety has been an oncoming issue that has thrown the area of transportation engineering into a frenzy. Pedestrian safety has become predominantly one of the leading causes of fatalities in traffic accidents. Florida has been reported as one of the leading states in pedestrian fatalities with 2.56 fatality rate per 100,000 population and about 20 percent of all traffic fatalities in the state of Florida. Nonetheless, as research is being done and hypotheses are being calibrated and produced, there has to be a way of measuring and determining the number of pedestrian-to-vehicle conflicts without having to yet apply the system on the field without further validation. Moreover, pedestrian-to-vehicle conflicts have been a rising issue in correlation to the pedestrian fatalities. The fact that the highway safety manual has limited information about crash modification functions for pedestrian and that pedestrian fatality is a rare event, it is worthwhile identifying and adopting surrogate safety measures for pedestrian. Thus, having the capability to analyze various surrogate safety measures within the confines of micro simulation would be a great contribution to real-world application. As a result, the purpose of this thesis is to determine the feasibility of using micro simulation to assess safety of pedestrian crossings using specifically VISSIM and SSAM. During this study, a great deal of data extraction was taken from videotapes collected at nine various intersections, each with its own environmental and geometrical factors. Various parameters were taken from the different sites in order to calibrate and validate VISSIM and SSAM. The parameters included traffic and pedestrian volumes, walking speeds, crossing times, signal timings, and pedestrian-to-vehicle conflicts. During this study, an extensive amount of analysis testing was done in order to obtain the optimum threshold within various combinations of thresholds that would define the pedestrian-to-vehicle conflicts. The analysis was initiated for the time to collision (TTC) and post encroachment time (P.E.T) thresholds. This is done so that the typical scenario of an intersection can be analyzed and comparisons can be made efficiently between observed and simulated conflicts. There were 55 combinations of TTC and PET thresholds produced that were also statistically calculated using the mean absolute percent error (MAPE) in order to determine the most efficient threshold for all 9 intersections. Calibration also was done for parameters in VISSIM that included the safety distance factor (SDF) and the Add-stop distance to assess the sensitivity of these parameters in computing the number of pedestrian-to-vehicle conflicts. These thresholds and factors were used for further validation and assessment of the feasibility of the SSAM and VISSIM model. Data results displayed that the simulated conflicts and the observed conflicts illustrated reasonable correlation. However, even with the feasibility of VISSIM and SSAM being validated, there still are questions that arise pertaining to whether VISSIM and other micro simulation can assess real-world driver behavior and the unpredictability of driver maneuvering. More research with more intersections are recommended to be done.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006526, ucf:51379
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006526

Title: Analysis of Pedestrian Crash characteristics and Contributing Causes in Central Florida.
Creator: Bianco, Zainb, Abou-Senna, Hatem, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This research investigates the main reasons leading the State of Florida to be ranked among the worst states in terms of pedestrian safety with four metro areas considered the most dangerous for pedestrians among all the United States as reported in the Dangerous by Design report. The study analyzes the characteristics and contributing causes of pedestrian crashes that occurred in Central Florida over a 5 year-period (2011-2015) at intersections and along roadway segments at mid-block...
Show moreThis research investigates the main reasons leading the State of Florida to be ranked among the worst states in terms of pedestrian safety with four metro areas considered the most dangerous for pedestrians among all the United States as reported in the Dangerous by Design report. The study analyzes the characteristics and contributing causes of pedestrian crashes that occurred in Central Florida over a 5 year-period (2011-2015) at intersections and along roadway segments at mid-block locations using the data obtained from the Signal 4 Analytics database. All pedestrian related crashes were compiled and all the 6,789 crash reports were studied thoroughly. Intersection and roadway pedestrian related crashes were identified along with all the parameters and conditions related to the high crash risk of pedestrians. However, due to inconsistencies in the police report inputs such as miscoding and misinterpretation, a screening criteria was developed to exclude or disqualify crashes that do not meet the research requirements. Preliminary descriptive statistics revealed the most common types of crashes at each location. For intersection-related crashes, it was found that left turn, right turn and through moving vehicles struck crossing pedestrians. At mid-block locations, major crash types were through moving vehicles hitting pedestrians crossing and walking along the roadway. The evaluated factors affecting pedestrian crashes were classified into four main categories; location characteristics (e.g. intersection, midblock, type of control, presence of crosswalk, presence of sidewalk), pedestrian factors (e.g. pedestrian under influence, failure to yield to the right of way), driver/vehicle characteristics (e.g. driving under influence, failed to yield to traffic control device, aggressive driving), and environmental-related factors (e.g. weather conditions, road surface conditions and time of day) were among the factors studied.Three different models were utilized in the analysis using the SPSS statistical software package. A multinomial logit model was developed to predict the likelihood that a pedestrian will be involved into one of the common crash types. A binary regression model was developed to understand the significant factors contributing to the main causes at each intersection type whether at signalized or un-signalized intersections. Lastly, an ordinal regression model was developed to identify the significant factors affecting the level of injury severity sustained by pedestrians. The results of the multinomial logit model for intersection crashes revealed a high probability of right turn crashes associated with drivers at fault with no aggressive driving related crashes compared to left turn crashes. The results also showed that the probability of through moving vehicle crashes with no traffic control device was 2.437 times higher than left turn crashes. These results confirmed the results of the binary model that a lower likelihood of left or right turn crashes was associated with un-signalized intersections when compared to through crashes. Lastly, a greater probability of through crashes was associated with running the red light when compared to left turn crashes.The results of the binary model revealed that the majority of the un-signalized intersection crashes were attributed to drivers at fault. Among other contributing factors was crossing at un-signalized intersections not equipped with the crosswalks. The chance of crashes at un-signalized intersections is 15.657 times higher in the absence of crosswalks compared to un-signalized intersections in which crosswalks are present. Conversely, signalized intersections related crashes were attributed to running the red light and pedestrians failing to obey traffic control devices.For the ordinal models for crashes at either intersections or mid-block locations, the results revealed that a reduction in the likelihood of severe injuries was associated with drivers being at fault, daytime, no aggressive driving related crashes and sober pedestrians. However, red light running related to intersection crashes, as well as pedestrians failing to yield to the right of way, and drivers under influence related to mid-block crashes were associated with high injury severity and an increase in the likelihood of severe injuries. The findings of this research and examination of the factors affecting pedestrians' crash likelihood and injury severity can lead to better crash mitigation strategies, countermeasures and policies that would alleviate this growing problem in Central Florida.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006566, ucf:51310
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006566

Title: Analysis of taxi drivers' driving behavior based on a driving simulator experiment.
Creator: Wu, Jiawei, Radwan, Essam, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Abou-Senna, Hatem, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Due to comfort, convenience, and flexibility, taxis become more and more prevalent in China, especially in large cities. According to a survey reported by Beijing Traffic Development Research Center, there were 696 million taxi person-rides in Beijing in 2011. However, many violations and road crashes that were related to taxi drivers occurred more frequently. The survey showed that there were a total of 17,242 taxi violations happened in Beijing in only one month in 2003, which accounted for...
Show moreDue to comfort, convenience, and flexibility, taxis become more and more prevalent in China, especially in large cities. According to a survey reported by Beijing Traffic Development Research Center, there were 696 million taxi person-rides in Beijing in 2011. However, many violations and road crashes that were related to taxi drivers occurred more frequently. The survey showed that there were a total of 17,242 taxi violations happened in Beijing in only one month in 2003, which accounted for 56% of all drivers' violations. Besides, taxi drivers also had a larger accident rate than other drivers, which showed that nearly 20% of taxi drivers had accidents each year. This study mainly focuses on investigating differences in driving behavior between taxi drivers and non-professional drivers.To examine the overall characteristics of taxi drivers and non-professional drivers, this study applied a hierarchical driving behavior assessment method to evaluate driving behaviors. This method is divided into three levels, including low-risk level, medium-risk level, and high-risk level. Low-risk level means the basic vehicle control. Medium-risk level refers to the vehicle dynamic decision. High-risk level represents the driver avoidance behavior when facing a potential crash.The Beijing Jiatong University (BJTU) driving simulator was applied to test different risk level scenarios which purpose is to find out the differences between taxi drivers and non-professional drivers on driving behaviors. Nearly 60 subjects, which include taxi drivers and non-professional drivers, were recruited in this experiment. Some statistical methods were applied to analyze the data and a logistic regression model was used to perform the high-risk level.The results showed that taxi drivers have more driving experience and their driving style is more conservative in the basic vehicle control level. For the car following behavior, taxi drivers have smaller following speed and larger gap compared to other drivers. For the yellow indication judgment behavior, although taxi drivers are slower than non-professional drivers when getting into the intersection, taxi drivers are more likely to run red light. For the lane changing behavior, taxi drivers' lane changing time is longer than others and lane changing average speed of taxi drivers is lower than other drivers.Another different behavior in high-risk level is that taxi drivers are more inclined to turn the steering wheel when facing a potential crash compared to non-professional drivers. However, non-professional drivers have more abrupt deceleration behaviors if they have the same situation.According to the experiment results, taxi drivers have a smaller crash rate compared to non-professional drivers. Taxi drivers spend a large amount of time on the road so that their driving experience must exceed that of non-professional drivers, which may bring them more skills. It is also speculated that because taxi drivers spend long hours on the job they probably have developed a more relaxed attitude about congestion and they are less likely to be candidates for road rage and over aggressive driving habits.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005561, ucf:50277
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005561

Title: An Analysis of the Protected-Permitted Left Turn at Intersections with a Varying Number of Opposing Through Lanes.
Creator: Navarro, Alexander, Radwan, Essam, Abou-Senna, Hatem, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The Flashing Yellow Arrow Left Turn signal is quickly becoming prominent in Central Florida as a new method of handling left turns at traffic signals. While the concept of a protected-permitted left turn is not groundbreaking, the departure from the typical display of a five-section signal head is, for this type of operation. The signal head introduced is a four-section head with a flashing yellow arrow between the yellow and green arrows. With this signal head quickly becoming the standard,...
Show moreThe Flashing Yellow Arrow Left Turn signal is quickly becoming prominent in Central Florida as a new method of handling left turns at traffic signals. While the concept of a protected-permitted left turn is not groundbreaking, the departure from the typical display of a five-section signal head is, for this type of operation. The signal head introduced is a four-section head with a flashing yellow arrow between the yellow and green arrows. With this signal head quickly becoming the standard, there is a need to re-evaluate the operational characteristics of the left turning vehicle and advance the knowledge of the significant parameters that may affect the ability for a driver to make a left turn at a signalized intersection. With previous research into the behavioral and operational characteristics of the flashing yellow arrow conducted, there is more information becoming available about the differences between this signal and the previously accepted method of allowing left turns at an intersection. The protected-permitted signal is typically displayed at an intersection with up to two through lanes and generally a protected signal is installed when the number of through lanes increases above two unless specific criteria is met. With the advent of larger arterials and more traffic on the highway networks, the push to operate these intersections at their maximum efficiency has resulted in more of these protected-permitted signals being present at these larger intersections, including the flashing yellow arrow.The core of the research that follows is a comparative analysis of the operation and parameters that affect the left turn movement of the intersection with larger geometry to that of the smaller geometry. The significant parameters of the left turn movement were examined through means of collecting, organizing and analyzing just over 68 hours of field data. This research details the determining of the significant parameters based on the generation of a simulation model of the protected left turn using Synchro, a traffic simulation package, and regression models using field driven data to determine the significant parameters for predicting the number of left turns that can be made in the permitted phase under specific operating conditions. Intuitively, there is an expectation that a larger intersection will not allow for as many permitted lefts as a smaller intersection with all conditions remaining the same. The conclusions drawn from this analysis provide the framework to understanding the similarities and the differences that are encountered when the intersection geometry differs and help to more efficiently manage traffic at signalized intersections.The work of this field promises to enhance the operations of the left turning movement for traffic control devices. With an understanding of the statistical models generated, a broader base of knowledge is gained as to the significant parameters that affect a driver's ability to make the left turn. A discussion of the statistical differences and between the models generated from the small and large geometry intersections is critical to drive further research into standards being developed for the highway transportation network and the treatment of these large signalized intersections. The exploration of specific parameters to predict the number of permitted left turns will yield results as to if there is more to be considered with larger intersections moving forward as they become a standard sight on the roadway network.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005387, ucf:50440
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005387

Title: TRAFFIC CONFLICT ANALYSIS UNDER FOG CONDITIONS USING COMPUTER SIMULATION.
Creator: Zhang, Binya, Radwan, Essam, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Abou-Senna, Hatem, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The weather condition is a crucial influence factor on road safety issues. Fog is one of the most noticeable weather conditions, which has a significant impact on traffic safety. Such condition reduces the road's visibility and consequently can affect drivers' vision, perception, and judgments. The statistical data shows that many crashes are directly or indirectly caused by the low-visibility weather condition. Hence, it is necessary for road traffic engineers to study the relationship of...
Show moreThe weather condition is a crucial influence factor on road safety issues. Fog is one of the most noticeable weather conditions, which has a significant impact on traffic safety. Such condition reduces the road's visibility and consequently can affect drivers' vision, perception, and judgments. The statistical data shows that many crashes are directly or indirectly caused by the low-visibility weather condition. Hence, it is necessary for road traffic engineers to study the relationship of road traffic accidents and their influence factors. Among these factors, the traffic volume and the speed limits in poor visibility areas are the primary reasons that can affect the types and occurring locations of road accidents.In this thesis, microscopic traffic simulation, through the use of VISSIM software, was used to study the road safety issue and its influencing factors due to limited visibility. A basic simulation model was built based on previously collected field data to simulate Interstate 4 (I-4)'s environment, geometry characteristics, and the basic traffic volume composition conditions. On the foundation of the basic simulation model, an experimental model was built to study the conflicts' types and distribution places under several different scenarios. Taking into consideration the entire 4-mile study area on I-4, this area was divided into 3 segments: section 1 with clear visibility, fog area of low visibility, and section 2 with clear visibility. Lower speed limits in the fog area, which were less than the limits in no-fog areas, were set to investigate the different speed limits' influence on the two main types of traffic conflicts: lane-change conflicts and rear-end conflicts. The experimental model generated several groups of traffic trajectory data files. The vehicle conflicts data were stored in these trajectory data files which, contains the conflict locations' coordinates, conflict time, time-to-conflict, and post-encroachment-time among other measures. The Surrogate Safety Assessment Model (SSAM), developed by the Federal Highway Administration, was applied to analyze these conflict data.From the analysis results, it is found that the traffic volume is an important factor, which has a large effect on the number of conflicts. The number of lane-change and rear-end conflicts increases along with the traffic volume growth. Another finding is that the difference between the speed limits in the fog area and in the no-fog areas is another significant factor that impacts the conflicts' frequency. Larger difference between the speed limits in two nearing road sections always leads to more accidents due to the inadequate reaction time for vehicle drivers to brake in time. And comparing to the scenarios that with the reduced speed limits in the low visibility zone, the condition that without the reduced speed limit has higher conflict number, which indicates that the it is necessary to put a lower speed limit in the fog zone which has a lower visibility. The results of this research have a certain reference value for studying the relationship between the road traffic conflicts and the impacts of different speed limits under fog condition. Overall, the findings of this research suggest follow up studies to further investigate possible relationships between conflicts as observed by simulation models and reported crashes in fog areas.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005747, ucf:50104
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005747

Title: TRAFFIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEMS ON EXPRESSWAYS USING MULTIPLE ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES.
Creator: Abuzwidah, Muamer, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Uddin, Nizam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Traffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. Crashes have caused extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence. With these consistent efforts, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in many countries have been steadily declining over the last ten...
Show moreTraffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. Crashes have caused extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence. With these consistent efforts, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in many countries have been steadily declining over the last ten years. Nevertheless, according to the World Health Organization, the world still lost 1.24 million lives from road traffic crashes in the year of 2013. And without action, traffic crashes on the roads network are predicted to result in deaths of around 1.9 million people, and up to 50 million more people suffer non-fatal injuries annually, with many incurring a disability as a result of their injury by the year 2020. To meet the transportation needs, the use of expressways (toll roads) has risen dramatically in many countries in the past decade. In fact, freeways and expressways are considered an important part of any successful transportation system. These facilities carry the majority of daily trips on the transportation network. Although expressways offer high level of service, and are considered the safest among other types of roads, traditional toll collection systems may have both safety and operational challenges. The traditional toll plazas still experience many crashes, many of which are severe. Therefore, it becomes more important to evaluate the traffic safety impacts of using different tolling systems. The main focus of the research in this dissertation is to provide an up-to-date safety impact of using different toll collection systems, as well as providing safety guidelines for these facilities to promote safety and enhance mobility on expressways. In this study, an extensive data collection was conducted that included one hundred mainline toll plazas located on approximately 750 miles of expressways in Florida. Multiple sources of data available online maintained by Florida Department of Transportation were utilized to identify traffic, geometric and geographic characteristics of the locations as well as investigating and determination of the most complete and accurate data. Different methods of observational before-after and Cross-Sectional techniques were used to evaluate the safety effectiveness of applying different treatments on expressways. The Before-After method includes Na(&)#239;ve Before-After, Before-After with Comparison Group, and Before-After with Empirical Bayesian. A set of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) which predict crash frequency as a function of explanatory variables were developed at the aggregate level using crash data and the corresponding exposure and risk factors. Results of the aggregate traffic safety analysis can be used to identify the hazardous locations (hot spots) such as traditional toll plazas, and also to predict crash frequency for untreated sites in the after period in the Before-After with EB method or derive Crash Modification Factors (CMF) for the treatment using the Cross-Sectional method. This type of analysis is usually used to improve geometric characteristics and mainly focus on discovering the risk factors that are related to the total crash frequency, specific crash type, and/or different crash severity levels. Both simple SPFs (with traffic volume only as an explanatory variable) and full SPFs (with traffic volume and additional explanatory variable(s)) were used to estimate the CMFs and only CMFs with lower standard error were recommended.The results of this study proved that safety effectiveness was significantly improved across all locations that were upgraded from Traditional Mainline Toll Plazas (TMTP) to the Hybrid Mainline Toll Plazas (HMTP) system. This treatment significantly reduced total, Fatal-and-Injury (F+I), and Rear-End crashes by 47, 46 and 65 percent, respectively. Moreover, this study examined the traffic safety impact of using different designs, and diverge-and-merge areas of the HMTP. This design combines either express Open Road Tolling (ORT) lanes on the mainline and separate traditional toll collection to the side (design-1), or traditional toll collection on the mainline and separate ORT lanes to the side (design-2). It was also proven that there is a significant difference between these designs, and there is an indication that design-1 is safer and the majority of crashes occurred at diverge-and-merge areas before and after these facilities. However, design-2 could be a good temporary design at locations that have low prepaid transponder (Electronic Toll Collection (ETC)) users. In other words, it is dependent upon the percentage of the ETC users. As this percentage increases, more traffic will need to diverge and merge; thus, this design becomes riskier. In addition, the results indicated significant relationships between the crash frequency and toll plaza types, annual average daily traffic, and drivers' age. The analysis showed that the conversion from TMTP to the All-Electronic Toll Collection (AETC) system resulted in an average reduction of 77, 76, and 67 percent for total, F+I, and Property Damage Only (PDO) crashes, respectively; for rear end and Lane Change Related (LCR) crashes the average reductions were 81 and 75 percent, respectively. The conversion from HMTP to AETC system enhanced traffic safety by reducing crashes by an average of 23, 29 and 19 percent for total, F+I, and PDO crashes; also, for rear end and LCR crashes, the average reductions were 15 and 21 percent, respectively. Based on these results, the use of AETC system changed toll plazas from the highest risk sections on Expressways to be similar to regular segments. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of AETC system was proven to be an excellent solution to several traffic operations as well as environmental and economic problems. For those agencies that cannot adopt the HMTP and the AETC systems, improving traffic safety at traditional toll plazas should take a priority.This study also evaluates the safety effectiveness of the implementation of High-Occupancy Toll lanes (HOT Lanes) as well as adding roadway lighting to expressways. The results showed that there were no significant impact of the implementation of HOT lanes on the roadway segment as a whole (HOT and Regular Lanes combined). But there was a significant difference between the regular lanes and the HOT lanes at the same roadway segment; the crash count increased at the regular lanes and decreased at the HOT lanes. It was found that the total and F+I crashes were reduced at the HOT lanes by an average of 25 and 45 percent, respectively. This may be attributable to the fact that the HOT lanes became a highway within a highway. Moreover adding roadway lighting has significantly improved traffic safety on the expressways by reducing the night crashes by approximately 35 percent.Overall, the proposed analyses of the safety effectiveness of using different toll collection systems are useful in providing expressway authorities with detailed information on where countermeasures must be implemented. This study provided for the first time an up-to-date safety impact of using different toll collection systems, also developed safety guidelines for these systems which would be useful for practitioners and roadway users.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005751, ucf:50100
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005751

Title: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Conversion of Traditional Five Section Head Signal to Flashing Yellow Arrow (FYA) Signal.
Creator: Almoshaogeh, Meshal, Radwan, Essam, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Abou-Senna, Hatem, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: In the United States, there are two schemes of operating traffic signal controls for permitted protected left turns (PPLT) namely the traditional five-section head system (known as Dog-House) and the flashing yellow arrow system (FYA). Past studies have agreed that these controls lead to decrease the average delay per left turn vehicle, decrease the protected green time, increase the left turn capacity, and enhance the intersection overall operation.The flashing yellow arrow (FYA) has been...
Show moreIn the United States, there are two schemes of operating traffic signal controls for permitted protected left turns (PPLT) namely the traditional five-section head system (known as Dog-House) and the flashing yellow arrow system (FYA). Past studies have agreed that these controls lead to decrease the average delay per left turn vehicle, decrease the protected green time, increase the left turn capacity, and enhance the intersection overall operation.The flashing yellow arrow (FYA) has been approved by the Federal Highway Administration as the national standard for the PPLT operations at signalized intersections. So, the Florida Department of Transportation also approved this new system and they are extensively replacing the traditional system with the new system on the area of Central Florida (Lin, et al, 2010). Both these systems have been used for a long time and there are some studies that evaluated these systems but there are limited number of projects that evaluated and/or compared between the two PPLT systems from the operational perspective.The main goal of this research is to study the characteristics of traffic operations and evaluate the effectiveness of the conversion from five-section head signal to the FYA treatments at 13 intersections located in Orlando, Florida. To reach this goal, detailed data collection efforts were conducted at 13 selected intersections in the central Florida area and appropriate statistical tests were conducted using the Minitab 17 Software. Statistical tests were attempted to fit different new regression models that correlate delay and left turn volumes as response variables against a set of independent variables that included permitted green time, opposing volume, percent of trucks, time gaps, speed, and land use type. In addition to fitting the data to regression models, these models were also analyzed for the purpose of detecting any significant differences between the five-section head treatment and FYA treatment.The statistical differences of converting the five-section head system to FYA system were discussed. The results in this thesis agreed with some of the previous studies and did not agree with others. In general, the flashing yellow arrow system was found to enhance the intersection operation, increase the number of left turn vehicles, and reduce the delay. Also, some suggestions and recommendations were made based on this study results.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005296, ucf:50570
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005296

Title: Performance Predication Model for Advance Traffic Control System (ATCS) using field data.
Creator: Mirza, Masood, Radwan, Essam, Abou-Senna, Hatem, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Zheng, Qipeng, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Reductions in capital expenditure revenues have created greater demands from users for quality service from existing facilities at lower costs forcing agencies to evaluate the performance of projects in more comprehensive and "greener" ways. The use of Adaptive Traffic Controls Systems (ATCS) is a step in the right direction by enabling practitioners and engineers to develop and implement traffic optimization strategies to achieve greater capacity out of the existing systems by optimizing...
Show moreReductions in capital expenditure revenues have created greater demands from users for quality service from existing facilities at lower costs forcing agencies to evaluate the performance of projects in more comprehensive and "greener" ways. The use of Adaptive Traffic Controls Systems (ATCS) is a step in the right direction by enabling practitioners and engineers to develop and implement traffic optimization strategies to achieve greater capacity out of the existing systems by optimizing traffic signal based on real time traffic demands and flow pattern. However, the industry is lagging in developing modeling tools for the ATCS which can predict the changes in MOEs due to the changes in traffic flow (i.e. volume and/or travel direction) making it difficult for the practitioners to measure the magnitude of the impacts and to develop an appropriate mitigation strategy. The impetus of this research was to explore the potential of utilizing available data from the ATCS for developing prediction models for the critical MOEs and for the entire intersection. Firstly, extensive data collections efforts were initiated to collect data from the intersections in Marion County, Florida. The data collected included volume, geometry, signal operations, and performance for an extended period. Secondly, the field data was scrubbed using macros to develop a clean data set for model development. Thirdly, the prediction models for the MOEs (wait time and queue) for the critical movements were developed using General Linear Regression Modeling techniques and were based on Poisson distribution with log linear function. Finally, the models were validated using the data collected from the intersections within Orange County, Florida. Also, as a part of this research, an Intersection Performance Index (IPI) model, a LOS prediction model for the entire intersection, was developed. This model was based on the MOEs (wait time and queue) for the critical movements.In addition, IPI Thresholds and corresponding intersection capacity designations were developed to establish level of service at the intersection. The IPI values and thresholds were developed on the same principles as Intersection Capacity Utilization (ICU) procedures, tested, and validated against corresponding ICU values and corresponding ICU LOS.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007055, ucf:51975
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007055

Title: Field Evaluation of Insync Adaptive Traffic Signal Control System in Multiple Environments Using Multiple Approaches.
Creator: Shafik, Md Shafikul Islam, Radwan, Essam, Abou-Senna, Hatem, Eluru, Naveen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Since the beginning of signalization of intersections, the management of traffic congestion is one of most critical challenges specifically for the city and urbanized area. Almost all the municipal agencies struggle to manage the perplexities associated with traffic congestion or signal control. The Adaptive Traffic Control System (ATCS), an advanced and major technological component of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is considered the most dynamic and real-time traffic...
Show moreSince the beginning of signalization of intersections, the management of traffic congestion is one of most critical challenges specifically for the city and urbanized area. Almost all the municipal agencies struggle to manage the perplexities associated with traffic congestion or signal control. The Adaptive Traffic Control System (ATCS), an advanced and major technological component of the Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) is considered the most dynamic and real-time traffic management technology and has potential to effectively manage rapidly varying traffic flow relative to the current state-of-the-art traffic management practices.InSync ATCS is deployed in multiple states throughout the US and expanding on a large scale. Although there had been several 'Measure of Effectiveness' studies performed previously, the performance of InSync is not unquestionable especially because the previous studies failed to subject for multiple environments, approaches, and variables. Most studies are accomplished through a single approach using simple/na(&)#239;ve before-after method without any control group/parameter. They also lacked ample statistical analysis, historical, maturation and regression artifacts. An attempt to evaluate the InSync ATCS in varying conditions through multiple approaches was undertaken for the SR-434 and Lake Underhill corridor in Orange County, Florida. A before-after study with an adjacent corridor as control group and volume as a control parameter has been performed where data of multiple variables were collected by three distinct procedures. The average/floating-car method was utilized as a rudimentary data collection process and 'BlueMac' and 'InSync' system database was considered as secondary data sources. Data collected for three times a day for weekdays and weekends before and after the InSync ATCS was deployed.Results show variation in both performance and scale. It proved ineffective in some of the cases, especially for the left turns, total intersection queue/delay and when the intersection volumes approach capacity. The results are verified through appropriate statistical analysis.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006915, ucf:51687
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006915

Title: A New Multidimensional Psycho-Physical Framework for Modeling Car-Following in a Freeway Work Zone.
Creator: Lochrane, Taylor, Al-Deek, Haitham, Radwan, Essam, Oloufa, Amr, Harb, Rami, Uddin, Nizam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: As the United States continues to build and repair the ageing highway infrastructure, the bearing of freeway work zones will continue to impact the capacity. To predict the capacity of a freeway work zone, there are several tools available for engineers to evaluate these work zones but only microsimulation has the ability to simulate the driver behavior. One of the limitations of current car-following models is that they only account for one overall behavioral condition. This dissertation...
Show moreAs the United States continues to build and repair the ageing highway infrastructure, the bearing of freeway work zones will continue to impact the capacity. To predict the capacity of a freeway work zone, there are several tools available for engineers to evaluate these work zones but only microsimulation has the ability to simulate the driver behavior. One of the limitations of current car-following models is that they only account for one overall behavioral condition. This dissertation hypothesizes that drivers change their driving behavior as they drive through a freeway work zone compared to normal freeway conditions which has the potential to impact traffic operations and capacity of work zones. Psycho-physical car-following models are widely used in practice for simulating car-following. However, current simulation models may not fully capture car-following driver behavior specific to freeway work zones. This dissertation presents a new multidimensional psycho-physical framework for modeling car-following based on statistical evaluation of work zone and non-work zone driver behavior. This new framework is close in character to the Wiedemann model used in popular traffic simulation software such as VISSIM. This dissertation used two methodologies for collecting data: (1) a questionnaire to collect demographics and work zone behavior data and (2) a real-time vehicle data from a field experiment involving human participants. It is hypothesized that the parameters needed to calibrate the multidimensional framework for work zone driver behavior can be derived statistically by using data collected from runs of an Instrumented Research Vehicle (IRV) in a Living Laboratory (LL) along a roadway. The design of this LL included the development of an Instrumented Research Vehicle (IRV) to capture the natural car-following response of a driver when entering and passing through a freeway work zone. The development of a Connected Mobile Traffic Sensing (CMTS) system, which included state-of-the-art ITS technologies, supports the LL environment by providing the connectivity, interoperability and data processing of the natural, real-life setting. The IRV and CMTS system are tools designed to support the concept of a LL which facilitates the experimental environment to capture and calibrate natural driver behavior. The objective is to have these participants drive the instrumented vehicle and collect the relative distance and the relative velocity between the instrumented vehicle and the vehicle in the front of the instrumented vehicle. A Phase I pilot test was conducted with 10 participants to evaluate the experiment and make any adjustments prior to the full Phase II driver test. The Phase II driver test recruited a group of 64 participants to drive the IRV through an LL set up along a work zone on I-95 near Washington D.C. in order to validate this hypothesis In this dissertation, a new framework was applied and it demonstrated that there are four different categories of car-following behavior models each with different parameter distributions. The four categories are divided by traffic condition (congested vs. uncongested) and by roadway condition (work zone vs. non-work zone). The calibrated threshold values are presented for each of these four categories. By applying this new multidimensional framework, modeling of car-following behavior can enhance vehicle behavior in microsimulation modeling.This dissertation also explored driver behavior through combining vehicle data and survey techniques to augment the model calibrations to improve the understanding of car-following behavior in freeway work zones. The results identify a set of survey questions that can potentially guide the selection of parameters for car-fallowing models. The findings presented in this dissertation can be used to improve the performance of driver behavior models specific to work zones. This in return will more acutely forecast the impact a work zone design has on capacity during congestion.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005521, ucf:50326
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005521

Title: Safety investigation of traffic crashes incorporating spatial correlation effects.
Creator: Alkahtani, Khalid, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Zheng, Qipeng, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: One main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among...
Show moreOne main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among lower- and middle-income countries where most road traffic deaths (90%) occur. This includes Middle Eastern countries, necessitating a thorough investigation and diagnosis of the issues and factors instigating traffic crashes in the region in order to reduce these serious traffic crashes. Since pedestrians are more vulnerable to traffic crashes compared to other road users, especially in this region, a safety investigation of pedestrian crashes is crucial to improving traffic safety. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is one of the largest Middle East metropolises, is used as an example to reflect the representation of these countries' characteristics, where Saudi Arabia has a rather distinct situation in that it is considered a high-income country, and yet it has the highest rate of traffic fatalities compared to their high-income counterparts. Therefore, in this research, several statistical methods are used to investigate the association between traffic crash frequency and contributing factors of crash data, which are characterized by 1) geographical referencing (i.e., observed at specific locations) or spatially varying over geographic units when modeled; 2) correlation between different response variables (e.g., crash counts by severity or type levels); and 3) temporally correlated. A Bayesian multivariate spatial model is developed for predicting crash counts by severity and type. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, policy makers would be able to suggest appropriate safety countermeasures for each type of crash in each zone.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007148, ucf:52324
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007148

Title: Exploration and development of crash modification factors and functions for single and multiple treatments.
Creator: Park, Juneyoung, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Wang, Chung-Ching, Lee, JaeYoung, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Traffic safety is a major concern for the public, and it is an important component of the roadway management strategy. In order to improve highway safety, extensive efforts have been made by researchers, transportation engineers, Federal, State, and local government officials. With these consistent efforts, both fatality and injury rates from road traffic crashes in the United States have been steadily declining over the last six years (2006~2011). However, according to the National Highway...
Show moreTraffic safety is a major concern for the public, and it is an important component of the roadway management strategy. In order to improve highway safety, extensive efforts have been made by researchers, transportation engineers, Federal, State, and local government officials. With these consistent efforts, both fatality and injury rates from road traffic crashes in the United States have been steadily declining over the last six years (2006~2011). However, according to the National Highway Traffic Safety Administration (NHTSA, 2013), 33,561 people died in motor vehicle traffic crashes in the United States in 2012, compared to 32,479 in 2011, and it is the first increase in fatalities since 2005. Moreover, in 2012, an estimated 2.36 million people were injured in motor vehicle traffic crashes, compared to 2.22 million in 2011. Due to the demand of highway safety improvements through systematic analysis of specific roadway cross-section elements and treatments, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) (AASHTO, 2010) was developed by the Transportation Research Board (TRB) to introduce a science-based technical approach for safety analysis. One of the main parts in the HSM, Part D, contains crash modification factors (CMFs) for various treatments on roadway segments and at intersections. A CMF is a factor that can estimate potential changes in crash frequency as a result of implementing a specific treatment (or countermeasure). CMFs in Part D have been developed using high-quality observational before-after studies that account for the regression to the mean threat. Observational before-after studies are the most common methods for evaluating safety effectiveness and calculating CMFs of specific roadway treatments. Moreover, cross-sectional method has commonly been used to derive CMFs since it is easier to collect the data compared to before-after methods.Although various CMFs have been calculated and introduced in the HSM, still there are critical limitations that are required to be investigated. First, the HSM provides various CMFs for single treatments, but not CMFs for multiple treatments to roadway segments. The HSM suggests that CMFs are multiplied to estimate the combined safety effects of single treatments. However, the HSM cautions that the multiplication of the CMFs may over- or under-estimate combined effects of multiple treatments. In this dissertation, several methodologies are proposed to estimate more reliable combined safety effects in both observational before-after studies and the cross-sectional method. Averaging two best combining methods is suggested to use to account for the effects of over- or under- estimation. Moreover, it is recommended to develop adjustment factor and function (i.e. weighting factor and function) to apply to estimate more accurate safety performance in assessing safety effects of multiple treatments. The multivariate adaptive regression splines (MARS) modeling is proposed to avoid the over-estimation problem through consideration of interaction impacts between variables in this dissertation. Second, the variation of CMFs with different roadway characteristics among treated sites over time is ignored because the CMF is a fixed value that represents the overall safety effect of the treatment for all treated sites for specific time periods. Recently, few studies developed crash modification functions (CMFunctions) to overcome this limitation. However, although previous studies assessed the effect of a specific single variable such as AADT on the CMFs, there is a lack of prior studies on the variation in the safety effects of treated sites with different multiple roadway characteristics over time. In this study, adopting various multivariate linear and nonlinear modeling techniques is suggested to develop CMFunctions. Multiple linear regression modeling can be utilized to consider different multiple roadway characteristics. To reflect nonlinearity of predictors, a regression model with nonlinearizing link function needs to be developed. The Bayesian approach can also be adopted due to its strength to avoid the problem of over fitting that occurs when the number of observations is limited and the number of variables is large. Moreover, two data mining techniques (i.e. gradient boosting and MARS) are suggested to use 1) to achieve better performance of CMFunctions with consideration of variable importance, and 2) to reflect both nonlinear trend of predictors and interaction impacts between variables at the same time. Third, the nonlinearity of variables in the cross-sectional method is not discussed in the HSM. Generally, the cross-sectional method is also known as safety performance functions (SPFs) and generalized linear model (GLM) is applied to estimate SPFs. However, the estimated CMFs from GLM cannot account for the nonlinear effect of the treatment since the coefficients in the GLM are assumed to be fixed. In this dissertation, applications of using generalized nonlinear model (GNM) and MARS in the cross-sectional method are proposed. In GNMs, the nonlinear effects of independent variables to crash analysis can be captured by the development of nonlinearizing link function. Moreover, the MARS accommodate nonlinearity of independent variables and interaction effects for complex data structures. In this dissertation, the CMFs and CMFunctions are estimated for various single and combination of treatments for different roadway types (e.g. rural two-lane, rural multi-lane roadways, urban arterials, freeways, etc.) as below:1) Treatments for mainline of roadway: - adding a thru lane, conversion of 4-lane undivided roadways to 3-lane with two-way left turn lane (TWLTL)2) Treatments for roadway shoulder: - installing shoulder rumble strips, widening shoulder width, adding bike lanes, changing bike lane width, installing roadside barriers3) Treatments related to roadside features: - decrease density of driveways, decrease density of roadside poles, increase distance to roadside poles, increase distance to trees Expected contributions of this study are to 1) suggest approaches to estimate more reliable safety effects of multiple treatments, 2) propose methodologies to develop CMFunctions to assess the variation of CMFs with different characteristics among treated sites, and 3) recommend applications of using GNM and MARS to simultaneously consider the interaction impact of more than one variables and nonlinearity of predictors.Finally, potential relevant applications beyond the scope of this research but worth investigation in the future are discussed in this dissertation.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005861, ucf:50914
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005861

Title: Evaluation of crash modification factors and functions including time trends at intersections.
Creator: Wang, Jung-Han, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Wang, Chung-Ching, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Traffic demand has increased as population increased. The US population reached 313,914,040 in 2012 (US Census Bureau, 2015). Increased travel demand may have potential impact on roadway safety and the operational characteristics of roadways. Total crashes and injury crashes at intersections accounted for 40% and 44% of traffic crashes, respectively, on US roadways in 2007 according to the Intersection Safety Issue Brief (FHWA, 2009). Traffic researchers and engineers have developed a...
Show moreTraffic demand has increased as population increased. The US population reached 313,914,040 in 2012 (US Census Bureau, 2015). Increased travel demand may have potential impact on roadway safety and the operational characteristics of roadways. Total crashes and injury crashes at intersections accounted for 40% and 44% of traffic crashes, respectively, on US roadways in 2007 according to the Intersection Safety Issue Brief (FHWA, 2009). Traffic researchers and engineers have developed a quantitative measure of the safety effectiveness of treatments in the form of crash modification factors (CMF). Based on CMFs from multiple studies, the Highway Safety Manual (HSM) Part D (AASHTO, 2010) provides CMFs which can be used to determine the expected number of crash reduction or increase after treatments were installed. Even though CMFs have been introduced in the HSM, there are still limitations that require to be investigated. One important potential limitation is that the HSM provides various CMFs as fixed values, rather than CMFs under different configurations. In this dissertation, the CMFs were estimated using the observational before-after study to show that the CMFs vary across different traffic volume levels when signalizing intersections. Besides screening the effect of traffic volume, previous studies showed that CMFs could vary over time after the treatment was implemented. Thus, in this dissertation, the trends of CMFs for the signalization and adding red light running cameras (RLCs) were evaluated. CMFs for these treatments were measured in each month and 90- day moving windows using the time series ARMA model. The results of the signalization show that the CMFs for rear-end crashes were lower at the early phase after the signalization but gradually increased from the 9th month. Besides, it was also found that the safety effectiveness is significantly worse 18 months after installing RLCs.Although efforts have been made to seek reliable CMFs, the best estimate of CMFs is still widely debated. Since CMFs are non-zero estimates, the population of all CMFs does not follow normal distributions and even if it did, the true mean of CMFs at some intersections may be different than that at others. Therefore, a bootstrap method was proposed to estimate CMFs that makes no distributional assumptions. Through examining the distribution of CMFs estimated by bootstrapped resamples, a CMF precision rating method is suggested to evaluate the reliability of the estimated CMFs. The result shows that the estimated CMF for angle+left-turn crashes after signalization has the highest precision, while estimates of the CMF for rear-end crashes are extremely unreliable. The CMFs for KABCO, KABC, and KAB crashes proved to be reliable for the majority of intersections, but the estimated effect of signalization may not be accurate at some sites.In addition, the bootstrap method provides a quantitative measure to identify the reliability of CMFs, however, the CMF transferability is questionable. Since the development of CMFs requires safety performance functions (SPFs), could CMFs be developed using the SPFs from other states in the United States? This research applies the empirical Bayes method to develop CMFs using several SPFs from different jurisdictions and adjusted by calibration factors. After examination, it is found that applying SPFs from other jurisdictions is not desired when developing CMFs.The process of estimating CMFs using before-after studies requires the understanding of multiple statistical principles. In order to simplify the process of CMF estimation and make the CMFs research reproducible. This dissertation includes an open source statistics package built in R (R, 2013) to make the estimation accessible and reproducible. With this package, authorities are able to estimate reliable CMFs following the procedure suggested by FHWA. In addition, this software package equips a graphical interface which integrates the algorithm of calculating CMFs so that users can perform CMF calculation with minimum programming prerequisite. Expected contributions of this study are to 1) propose methodologies for CMFs to assess the variation of CMFs with different characteristics among treated sites, 2) suggest new objective criteria to judge the reliability of safety estimation, 3) examine the transferability of SPFs when developing CMF using before-after studies, and 4) develop a statistics software to calculate CMFs. Finally, potential relevant applications beyond the scope of this research, but worth investigation in the future are discussed in this dissertation.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006413, ucf:51454
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006413

Title: Microscopic Safety Evaluation and Prediction for Special Expressway Facilities.
Creator: Wang, Ling, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Uddin, Nizam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Expressways are of great importance and serve as the backbone of a roadway system. One of the reasons why expressways increase travel speeds and provide high level of services is that limited access is provided to permit vehicles to enter or exit expressways. Entering and exiting of vehicles are accomplished through interchanges, which consist of several ramps, thus the spacing between ramps is important. A weaving segment might form when an on-ramp is closely followed by an off-ramp. The...
Show moreExpressways are of great importance and serve as the backbone of a roadway system. One of the reasons why expressways increase travel speeds and provide high level of services is that limited access is provided to permit vehicles to enter or exit expressways. Entering and exiting of vehicles are accomplished through interchanges, which consist of several ramps, thus the spacing between ramps is important. A weaving segment might form when an on-ramp is closely followed by an off-ramp. The geometric design of ramps and the traffic behavior of weaving segments are different from other expressway segments. These differences result in distinct safety mechanisms of these two expressway special facilities. Hence, the safety of these two facilities needs to be addressed.The majority of previous traffic safety studies on expressway special facilities are based on highly aggregated traffic data, e.g., Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). This highly aggregated traffic data cannot represent traffic conditions at the time of crashes and also cannot be used in the study of weather and temporal impact on crash occurrence. One way to solve this problem is microscopic safety evaluation and prediction through hourly crash prediction and real-time safety analysis. An hourly crash study averages one or several hours' traffic data in a year and also aggregates crash frequencies in the corresponding hour(s). Then it applies predictive models to determine the statistical relationship between crashes and hourly traffic flow characteristics, such as traffic volume. Real-time safety analysis enables us to predict crash risk and distinguish crashes from non-crashes in the next few minutes using the current traffic, weather, and other conditions.There are four types of crash contributing factors: traffic, geometry, weather, and driver. Among these, traffic parameters have been utilized in all previous microscopic safety studies. On the other hand, the other three factors' impact on microscopic safety has not been widely analyzed. The geometric factors' influence on safety are generally excluded by previous researchers using the matched-case-control method, because the majority of previous microscopic safety studies are on mainlines, where the geometric design of a segment does not change much and geometry does not have a significant effect on safety. Not enough studies have adopted weather factors in microscopic safety analysis because of the limited availability of weather data. The impact of drivers on safety has also not been widely considered since driver information is hard to be obtained. This study explores the relationship between crashes and the four contributing factors. Weather data are obtained from airport weather stations and crash reports which record weather and roadway surface conditions for crashes. Meanwhile, land-use and trip generation parameters serve as surrogates for drivers' behavior.Several methods are used to explore and quantify the impact of these factors. Random forests are used in discovering important and significant explanatory variables, which play significant roles in determining traffic safety, by ranking their importance. Meanwhile, in order to prevent high correlation between independent variables, Pearson correlation tests are carried out before model estimations. Only the variables which are not highly correlated are selected. Then, the selected variables are put in logistic regression models and Poisson-lognormal models to respectively estimate crash risk and crash frequency for special expressway facilities. Meanwhile, in case of correlation among observations in the same segment, a multilevel modeling structure has been implemented. Furthermore, a data mining technique(-)Support Vector Machine (SVM)(-)is used to distinguish crash from non-crash observations. Once the crash mechanisms for special expressway facilities are found, we are able to provide valuable information on how to manage roadway facilities to improve the traffic safety of special facilities. This study adopts Active Traffic Management (ATM) strategies, including Ramp Metering (RM) and Variable Speed Limit (VSL), in order to enhance the safety of a congested weaving segment. RM regulates the entering vehicle volume by adjusts metering rate, and VSL is able to provide smoother mainline traffic by changing the mainline speed limits. The ATM strategies are carried out in microscopic simulation VISSIM through the Component Object Model (COM) interface. The results shows that the crash risk and conflict count of the studies weaving segment have been significantly reduced because of ATM.Furthermore, the mechanisms of traffic conflicts, a surrogate safety measurement, are explored for weaving segments using microscopic simulation. The weaving segment conflict prediction model is compared with its crash prediction model. The results show that there are similarity and differences between conflict and crash mechanisms. Finally, potential relevant applications beyond the scope of this research but worth investigation in the future are also discussed in this dissertation.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006414, ucf:51480
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006414

Title: Dynamic Hotspot Identification for Limited Access Facilities using Temporal Traffic Data.
Creator: Al Amili, Samer, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Wang, Chung-Ching, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Crash frequency analysis is the most critical tool to investigate traffic safety problems. Therefore, an accurate crash analysis must be conducted. Since traffic continually fluctuates over time and this effects potential of crash occurrence, shorter time periods and less aggregated traffic factors (shorter intervals than AADT) need to be used. In this dissertation, several methodologies have been conducted to elevate the accuracy of crash prediction. The performance of using less aggregated...
Show moreCrash frequency analysis is the most critical tool to investigate traffic safety problems. Therefore, an accurate crash analysis must be conducted. Since traffic continually fluctuates over time and this effects potential of crash occurrence, shorter time periods and less aggregated traffic factors (shorter intervals than AADT) need to be used. In this dissertation, several methodologies have been conducted to elevate the accuracy of crash prediction. The performance of using less aggregated traffic data in modeling crash frequency was explored for weekdays and weekends. Four-time periods for weekdays and two time periods for weekends, with four intervals (5, 15, 30, and 60 minutes). The comparison between AADT based models and short-term period models showed that short-term period models perform better. As a shorter traffic interval than AADT considered, two difficulties began. Firstly, the number of zero observations increased. Secondly, the repetition of the same roadway characteristics arose. To reduce the number of zero observations, only segments with one or more crashes were used in the modeling process. To eliminate the effect of the repetition in the data, random effect was applied. The results recommend adopting segments with only one or more crashes, as they give a more valid prediction and less error.Zero-inflated negative binomial (ZINB) and hurdle negative binomial (HNB) models were examined in addition to the negative binomial for both weekdays and weekends. Different implementations of random effects were applied. Using the random effect either on the count part, on the zero part, or a pair of uncorrelated (or correlated) random effects for both parts of the model. Additionally, the adaptive Gaussian Quadrature, with five quadrature points, was used to increase accuracy. The results reveal that the model which considered the random effect in both parts performed better than other models, and ZINB performed better than HNB.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0006966, ucf:51682
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006966

VISSIM (5)	+ -
Driving Simulator (4)	+ -
Signalized Intersection (3)	+ -
Traffic Safety (3)	+ -
simulation (3)	+ -

Before-After Study (2)	+ -
Crash Modification Factors (2)	+ -
Empirical Bayes (2)	+ -
Highway Safety Manual (2)	+ -
Red-light Running (2)	+ -
SSAM (2)	+ -
Sight Distance (2)	+ -
Signalized Intersections (2)	+ -
Traffic Operations (2)	+ -
Unprotected Left-turn (2)	+ -
Work Zones (2)	+ -
driving simulator (2)	+ -
ARMA (1)	+ -
Adaptive Traffic Control System (ATCS) (1)	+ -
Angle (1)	+ -
Augmented reality (1)	+ -
Average-car Method (1)	+ -
Bayesian models (1)	+ -
Before-After Analysis (1)	+ -
Before-after Study (1)	+ -
BlueMAC (1)	+ -
Bootstrap (1)	+ -
CAR (1)	+ -
CFI (1)	+ -
Cell Transmission Model (1)	+ -

Radwan, Essam (38)	+ -
University of Central Florida (38)	+ -
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