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Title: Physical Hydrogeological Modeling of Florida's Sinkhole Hazard.
Creator: Perez, Adam, Nam, Boo Hyun, Wang, Dingbao, Chopra, Manoj, Singh, Arvind, An, Jin Woo, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Sinkholes are one of the major geohazards in karst terrain and pose a social, economic, and environmental risk. In Florida, sinkhole-related insurance claims between 2006 and the third quarter of 2010 amounted to $1.4 billion. Approximately 20 % of the United States is underlain by karst terrain formed from the dissolution of soluble rocks and is susceptible to a sinkhole hazard. Particularly, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania are known as sinkhole...
Show moreSinkholes are one of the major geohazards in karst terrain and pose a social, economic, and environmental risk. In Florida, sinkhole-related insurance claims between 2006 and the third quarter of 2010 amounted to $1.4 billion. Approximately 20 % of the United States is underlain by karst terrain formed from the dissolution of soluble rocks and is susceptible to a sinkhole hazard. Particularly, Texas, Florida, Tennessee, Alabama, Missouri, Kentucky, and Pennsylvania are known as sinkhole states.The scope of this study is to develop a physical model to simulate sinkholes (referred to as a sinkhole simulator), which can assess the qualitative behavior of the hydrogeological mechanism of Florida's sinkhole formations. Two sinkhole simulators were developed, with the second simulator constructed to overcoming the limitations of the first. The first generation sinkhole simulator incorporated a falling head groundwater system and the sinkhole could only be observed once the ground surface was breached. The second generation sinkhole simulator incorporated a constant head groundwater system which accurately depicts field conditions and the sinkhole was able to be observed during all stages of formation within this model. In both simulators multiple hydrogeological conditions were created and water level transducers were installed at various locations within the soil profile to monitor variations in the groundwater table during the sinkhole process, this was done to investigate the soil-groundwater behavior.Findings from this study include: 1) groundwater recharge is a critical sinkhole triggering factor, 2) the groundwater table cone of depression increases as the raveled zone or void travels up through the overburden due to sinkhole formation, 3) The cover-subsidence sinkhole failure mechanism is similar to the failure mechanism present in Terzaghi's trapdoor experiment and the cover-collapse failure mechanism consists of four district components: failure planes with erosion envelope, arch dropout failure, formation of elliptical void, and slope stability failure, and 4) a strong qualitative relationship between soil strength and type of sinkhole formed (cover-subsidence or cover-collapse) was observed.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006637, ucf:51247
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006637

Title: Hydrologic controls on the natural drainage networks extracted from high-resolution topographic data.
Creator: Hooshyar, Milad, Wang, Dingbao, Medeiros, Stephen, Singh, Arvind, Kibler, Kelly, Weishampel, John, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Drainage networks are important geomorphologic and hydrologic features which significantly control runoff generation. Drainage networks are composed of unchannelized valleys and channels. At valley heads, flow changes from unconfined sheet flow on the hillslope to confined flow in valley. Localized confined flow dominates in valleys as a result of convergent topography with positive curvature. Channels initiate at some distance down from the valley head, and the transition from unchannelized...
Show moreDrainage networks are important geomorphologic and hydrologic features which significantly control runoff generation. Drainage networks are composed of unchannelized valleys and channels. At valley heads, flow changes from unconfined sheet flow on the hillslope to confined flow in valley. Localized confined flow dominates in valleys as a result of convergent topography with positive curvature. Channels initiate at some distance down from the valley head, and the transition from unchannelized valley to channel is referred to as the channel head. Channel heads occur at a point where fluvial transport dominates over diffusive transport.From the hydrologic perspective, channels are categorized as perennial, intermittent, and ephemeral streams based on the flow durations. Perennial streams flow for the most of the time during normal years and are maintained by groundwater discharge. Intermittent (i.e. seasonal) streams flow during certain times of the year receiving water from surface sources such as melting snow or from groundwater. Lastly, ephemeral streams flow only in direct response to precipitation without continuous surface flow. In this dissertation, the hydrologic controls on the drainage networks extracted from high resolution Digital Elevation Models (DEMs) based on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) are investigated. A method for automatic extraction of valley and channel networks from high-resolution DEMs is presented. This method utilizes both positive (i.e., convergent topography) and negative (i.e., divergent topography) curvature to delineate the valley network. The valley and ridge skeletons are extracted using the pixels' curvature and the local terrain conditions. The valley network is generated by checking the terrain for the existence of at least one ridge between two intersecting valleys. The transition from unchannelized to channelized sections (i.e., channel head) in each 1st-order valley tributary is identified independently by categorizing the corresponding contours using an unsupervised approach based on K-means clustering. The method does not require a spatially constant channel initiation threshold (e.g., curvature or contributing area). Moreover, instead of a point attribute (e.g., curvature), the proposed clustering method utilizes the shape of contours, which reflects the entire cross-sectional profile including possible banks. The method was applied to three catchments: Indian Creek and Mid Bailey Run in Ohio, and Feather River in California. The accuracy of channel head extraction from the proposed method is comparable to state-of-the-art channel extraction methods. Valleys extracted from DEMs may be wet (flowing) or dry at any given time depending on the hydrologic conditions. The temporal dynamics of flowing streams are vitally important for understanding hydrologic processes including surface water and groundwater interaction and hydrograph recession. However, observations of wet channel networks are limited, especially in headwater catchments. Near infrared LiDAR data provide an opportunity to map wet channel networks owing to the fine spatial resolution and strong absorption of light energy by water surfaces. A systematic method is developed to map wet channel networks by integrating elevation and signal intensity of ground returns. The signal intensity thresholds for identifying wet pixels are extracted from frequency distributions of intensity return within the convergent topography extent using a Gaussian mixture model. Moreover, the concept of edge in digital image processing, defined based on the intensity gradient, is utilized to enhance detection of small wet channels. The developed method was applied to the Lake Tahoe area based on eight LiDAR acquisitions during recession periods in five watersheds. A power-law relationship between streamflow and wetted channel length during recession periods was derived, and the scaling exponent (L?Q^0.38) is within the range of reported values from fieldwork in other regions.Several studies in the past focused on the relationship between drainage density (i.e., drainage length divided by drainage area) and long-term climate and reported a U-shape pattern. In this dissertation, this relationship was re-visited and the effect of drainage area on drainage density was investigated. Long-term climate was quantified by climate aridity indices which is the ratio between long-term potential evaporation and precipitation. 120 study sites across the United States with minimal human disturbance and a wide range of climate aridity index were selected based on the availability of LiDAR data. The drainage networks were delineated from LiDAR-based 1 m DEMs using the proposed curvature-based method. Despite the U-shaped relationship in the literature, our result shows a significant decreasing trend in the drainage density versus climate aridity index in arid regions; whereas no trend is observed in humid watersheds. This observation and its discrepancy with the reported pattern in the literature are justified considering the dynamics of the runoff erosive force and the resistance of vegetation and the climate controls on them. Our findings suggest that natural drainage networks in arid regions are more sensitive to the change in long-term climate conditions compared with drainage networks in humid climate. It was also found that drainage density has a decreasing trend with drainage area in arid regions; however, no trend was observed in humid regions. In a broader sense, the findings influence our understanding of the formation of drainage networks and the response of hydrologic systems to climate change. The formation and growth of river channels and their network evolution are governed by the erosional and depositional processes operating on the landscape due to movement of water. The branching angles, i.e., the angle between two adjoining channels, in drainage networks are important features related to the network topology and contain valuable information about the forming mechanisms of the landscape. Based on channel networks extracted from 1 m Digital Elevation Models of 120 catchments with minimal human impacts across the United States, we showed that the junction angles have two distinct modes with ?1 ? 49.5(&)deg; and ?2 ? 75.0(&)deg;. The observed angles are physically explained as the optimal angles that result in minimum energy dissipation and are linked to the exponent characterizing slope-area curve. Our findings suggest that the flow regimes, debris-flow dominated or fluvial, have distinct characteristic angles which are functions of the scaling exponent of the slope-area curve. These findings enable us to understand the geomorphologic signature of hydrologic processes on drainage networks and develop more refined landscape evolution models.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006604, ucf:51278
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006604

Title: Evaluation of strength and hydraulic properties of buried pipe systems used for stormwater harvesting.
Creator: Samson Mena, Mario, Chopra, Manoj, Wang, Dingbao, Nam, Boo Hyun, Gogo-Abite, Ikiensinma, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Water scarcity has been identified as a global issue. Both water harvesting and an efficient water piping system are some of the important factors to meet the water demand. In this study, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipes used as an underground storage was evaluated and a Microsoft EXCEL based model was developed, called PIPE-R Model. To study the structural integrity of the pipes, laboratory and field testing were conducted. For the water harvesting, UCF Stormwater Management Academy...
Show moreWater scarcity has been identified as a global issue. Both water harvesting and an efficient water piping system are some of the important factors to meet the water demand. In this study, high-density polyethylene (HDPE) pipes used as an underground storage was evaluated and a Microsoft EXCEL based model was developed, called PIPE-R Model. To study the structural integrity of the pipes, laboratory and field testing were conducted. For the water harvesting, UCF Stormwater Management Academy designed an EXCEL based model to simulate the system's performance to store and redistribute water for an average year.The purpose of PIPE-R Model was to provide average yearly values such as groundwater recharge, hydrologic efficiency and make up water needed in order to guide the user in the design process. The PIPE-R Model consisted on evaluating specific pipe systems based on properties selected by the user. Input variables such as system dimensions, soil type and reuse water demand provided flexibility to the user while evaluating the system. Results of the study showed that the PIPE-R Model might be an effective tool while designing these pipe systems. A detailed example was shown to help visualize the process required to use the model. The PIPE-R model allowed the user a wide range of possibilities and obtain important performance data that will hopefully optimize the cost for its construction.For the evaluation of the structural integrity of the pipe system, laboratory testing was conducted in accordance with ASTM D2412 ? 11 (")Determination of External Loading Characteristics of Plastic Pipe by Parallel-Plate Loading("). This method helps evaluate the structural performance based on the pipe stiffness (PS) against the standard values stated by AASHTO M252. The test procedure consisted on establishing load-deflection relationship of aivsingle pipe under parallel plate loading. However, this research project involved the analysis of bundled pipes of different sizes and levels. Thus, modifications were added to the formula in order to evaluate multiple pipes by accounting the number of pipes in contact with the loading plate. Laboratory results demonstrated that the pipes exceeded the minimum requirements stated by AASHTO M252 and that strength is decreased as the number of levels increases.In addition, field testing was conducted to study the behavior of bundle systems under the effects of dead and live loads. Three different cover configuration were studied ranging from 18 inches to 43 inches of depth. Draw-wire sensors, a type of displacement sensors, were placed inside buried housing structures to monitor deformation values experienced by the pipe bundles during the test. Average deformations founds for the cover depths of 43 in, 30 in and 18 in were 0.07 in, 0.32 in and 0.64 in, respectively. Based on these results, the field testing revealed that a minimum of 30 inches of cover is seemed to be appropriate if live loads are applicable.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0006055, ucf:50976
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006055

Title: Base Flow Recession Analysis for Streamflow and Spring Flow.
Creator: Ghosh, Debapi, Wang, Dingbao, Chopra, Manoj, Singh, Arvind, Medeiros, Stephen, Bohlen, Patrick, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Base flow recession curve during a dry period is a distinct hydrologic signature of a watershed. The base flow recession analysis for both streamflow and spring flow has been extensively studied in the literature. Studies have shown that the recession behaviors during the early stage and the late stage are different in many watersheds. However, research on the transition from early stage to late stage is limited and the hydrologic control on the transition is not completely understood. In...
Show moreBase flow recession curve during a dry period is a distinct hydrologic signature of a watershed. The base flow recession analysis for both streamflow and spring flow has been extensively studied in the literature. Studies have shown that the recession behaviors during the early stage and the late stage are different in many watersheds. However, research on the transition from early stage to late stage is limited and the hydrologic control on the transition is not completely understood. In this dissertation, a novel cumulative regression analysis method is developed to identify the transition flow objectively for individual recession events in the well-studied Panola Mountain Research Watershed in Georgia, USA. The streamflow at the watershed outlet is identified when the streamflow at the perennial stream head approaches zero, i.e., flowing streams contract to perennial streams. The identified transition flows are then compared with observed flows when the flowing stream contracts to the perennial stream head. As evidenced by a correlation coefficient of 0.90, these two characteristics of streamflow are found to be highly correlated, suggesting a fundamental linkage between the transition of base flow recession from early to late stages and the drying up of ephemeral streams. At the early stage, the contraction of ephemeral streams mostly controls the recession behavior. At the late stage, perennial streams dominate the flowing streams and groundwater hydraulics governs the recession behavior. The ephemeral stream densities vary from arid regions to humid regions. Therefore, the characteristics of transition flow across the climate gradients are also tested in 40 watersheds. It is found that climate, which is represented by climate aridity index, is the dominant controlling factor on transition flows from early to late recession stages. Transition flows and long-term average base flows are highly correlated with a correlation coefficient of 0.82. Long-term average base flow and the transition flow of recession are base flow characteristics at two temporal scales, i.e., the long-term scale and the event scale during a recession period. This is a signature of the co-evolution of climate, vegetation, soil, and topography at the watershed scale. The characteristics of early and late recession are applied for quantifying human impacts on streamflow in agricultural watersheds with extensive groundwater pumping for irrigation. A recession model is developed to incorporate the impacts of human activities (such as groundwater pumping) and climate variability (such as evapotranspiration) on base flow recession. Groundwater pumping is estimated based on the change of observed base flow recession in watersheds in the High Plains Aquifer. The estimated groundwater pumping rate is found consistent compared with the observed data of groundwater uses for irrigation. Besides streamflow recession analysis, this dissertation also presents a novel spring recession model for Silver Springs in Florida by incorporating groundwater head, spring pool altitude, and net recharge into the existing Torricelli model. The results show that the effective springshed area has continuously declined since 1988. The net recharge has declined since the 1970s with a significant drop in 2002. Subsequent to 2002, the net recharge increased modestly but not to the levels prior to the 1990s. The decreases in effective springshed area and net recharge caused by changes in hydroclimatic conditions including rainfall and temperature, along with groundwater withdrawals, contribute to the declined spring flow.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005951, ucf:50814
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005951

Title: Performance Evaluation of Two Silt Fence Geosynthetic Fabrics During and After Rainfall Event.
Creator: Dubinsky, Gregg, Chopra, Manoj, Randall, Andrew, Wang, Dingbao, Gogo-Abite, Ikiensinma, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Silt fence is one of the most widely used perimeter control devices and is considered an industry standard for use in the control of sediment transport from construction sites. Numerous research studies have been conducted on the use of silt fence as a perimeter control, including a number of studies involving controlled laboratory flume tests and outdoor tests performed in the field on construction sites with actual monitored storm events. In field tests, due to the random and uncontrollable...
Show moreSilt fence is one of the most widely used perimeter control devices and is considered an industry standard for use in the control of sediment transport from construction sites. Numerous research studies have been conducted on the use of silt fence as a perimeter control, including a number of studies involving controlled laboratory flume tests and outdoor tests performed in the field on construction sites with actual monitored storm events. In field tests, due to the random and uncontrollable nature of real storm events and field conditions, studies have shown difficulty in evaluating silt fence performance. These field studies have shown the need for performance testing of silt fence in a more controlled environment, which can also simulate the actual use and performance in the field. This research, which is a continuation of ongoing research on silt fence fabrics at UCF Stormwater and Management Academy, was conducted in order to evaluate silt fence performance under simulated field conditions. Presented in this thesis are evaluation of two silt fence fabrics, a woven (ASR 1400) fabric and nonwoven (BSRF) fabric. Both fabrics were installed separately on a tilted test bed filled with a silty-sand soil and subjected to simulated rainfall.Previous field studies on the performance of silt fence fabrics have evaluated the turbidity and sediment removal efficiencies only after the rain event, with the assumption that the efficiency values represent the true overall performance of silt fence. The results of this study revealed that the turbidity and suspended sediment performance efficiencies of silt fence were significantly affected by the time of sampling. The performance efficiencies during rainfall remained less than 55 percent, however, after the rainfall event ended, the performance efficiencies increased over time, reaching performance efficiency upwards of 90 percent. The increase in efficiency after rainfall was due to the constant or decreasing ponding depth behind the silt fence, increased filtration due to fabric clogging, and sedimentation of suspended particles.The nonwoven fabric was found to achieve higher removal efficiencies and flow-through rates both during and after the rain event when compared with the woven fabric. However, over the entire test duration (during and after rainfall combined), the projected overall efficiencies of both fabrics were similar. The projected overall average turbidity performance efficiencies of the woven and nonwoven silt fence fabrics was 80 and 78 percent, respectively. Both fabric types also achieved comparable overall average suspended sediment concentration efficiencies of 79 percent. This result leads to the conclusion that silt fence performance in the field is dependent on three main processes: filtration efficiency occurring during the rain event, filtration and sedimentation efficiency occurring after the rainfall event, and flow-through rate of the silt fence fabrics. Decreases in the flow-through rate lead to increases in the overall efficiency. This thesis quantifies the different mechanisms by which these processes contribute to the overall efficiency of the silt fence system and shows how these processes are affected by different conditions such as the degree of embankment slope and rainfall intensity.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005158, ucf:50688
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005158

Title: Understanding Hydroclimatic Controls on Stream Network Dynamics using LiDAR Data.
Creator: Kim, Seoyoung, Wang, Dingbao, Medeiros, Stephen, Nam, Boo Hyun, Singh, Arvind, Sumner, David, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This dissertation investigates the hydroclimatic controls on drainage network dynamics and characterizes the variation of drainage density in various climate regions. The methods were developed to extract the valley and wet channel networks based on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data including the elevation and intensity of laser returns. The study watersheds were selected based on the availability of streamflow observations and LiDAR data. Climate aridity index was used as a...
Show moreThis dissertation investigates the hydroclimatic controls on drainage network dynamics and characterizes the variation of drainage density in various climate regions. The methods were developed to extract the valley and wet channel networks based on Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data including the elevation and intensity of laser returns. The study watersheds were selected based on the availability of streamflow observations and LiDAR data. Climate aridity index was used as a quantitative indicator for climate. The climate controls on drainage density were re-visited using watersheds with minimal anthropogenic interferences and compared with the U-shape relationship reported in the previous studies. A curvature-based method was developed to extract a valley network from 1-m LiDAR-based Digital Elevation Models. The relationship between drainage density and climate aridity index showed a monotonic increasing trend and the discrepancy was explained by human interventions and underestimated drainage density due to the coarse spatial resolution (30-meter) of the topographic maps used in previous research. Observations of wet channel networks are limited, especially in headwater catchments in comparison with the importance of stream network expansion and contraction. A systematic method was developed to extract wet channel networks based on the signal intensities of LiDAR ground returns, which are lower on water surfaces than on dry surfaces. The frequency distributions of intensities associated with wet surface and dry surface returns were constructed. With the aid of LiDAR-based ground elevations, signal intensity thresholds were identified for extracting wet channels. The developed method was applied to Lake Tahoe area during recession periods in five watersheds. A power-law relationship between streamflow and wet channel length was obtained and the scaling exponent was consistent with the reported findings from field work in other regions.Perennial streams flow for the most of the time during normal years and are usually defined based on a flow duration threshold. The streamflow characteristics of perennial streams in this research were assessed using the relationship between streamflow exceedance probability and wet channel ratio based on wet channel networks extracted from LiDAR data. Non-dimensional analysis based on the relationship between streamflow exceedance probability and wet channel ratio showed that results were consistent with previous research about perennial stream definition, and provided the possibility to use wet channel ratio to define perennial streams. Wetlands are important natural resources and need to be monitored regularly in order to understand their inundation dynamics, function and health. Wetland mapping is a key part of monitoring programs. A framework for detecting wetland was developed based on LiDAR elevation and intensity information. After masking out densely vegetated areas, wet areas were identified based on signal intensity of ground returns for barrier islands in East-Central Florida. The intensity threshold of wet surface was identified by decomposing composite probability distribution functions using a Gamma mixture model and the Expectation-Maximization algorithm. This method showed good potential for wetland mapping.The methodology developed in this dissertation demonstrated that incorporating LiDAR data into the drainage networks, stream network dynamics and wetlands results in enhanced understanding of hydroclimatic controls on stream network dynamics. LiDAR data provide a rich information source including elevation and intensity, and are of great benefit to hydrologic research community.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006532, ucf:51372
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006532

Title: Sinkhole Monitoring Using Groundwater Table Data.
Creator: Tu, Ton, Yun, Hae-Bum, Nam, Boo Hyun, Wang, Dingbao, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Florida might be one of the most sinkhole-active areas on the earth. Due to its unpredictability and significance of occurrence, the development of sinkhole monitoring techniques is imperative to minimize sinkhole-induced hazards. Several methods have been used to evaluate sinkhole risks, including destructive methods, such as Standard Penetrating Tests (SPT) and Cone Penetrating Tests (CPT), geophysical method, and sensor-based groundwater monitoring method. However, few studies are...
Show moreFlorida might be one of the most sinkhole-active areas on the earth. Due to its unpredictability and significance of occurrence, the development of sinkhole monitoring techniques is imperative to minimize sinkhole-induced hazards. Several methods have been used to evaluate sinkhole risks, including destructive methods, such as Standard Penetrating Tests (SPT) and Cone Penetrating Tests (CPT), geophysical method, and sensor-based groundwater monitoring method. However, few studies are available for comprehensive understanding of spatiotemporal sinkhole mechanism by combining different exploration methods under realistic experimental conditions. The objective of this study is to understand spatiotemporal sinkhole mechanism, using SPT, CPT, ground penetrating radar (GPR), and piezo pressure sensors tested at actual sinkhole sites. A small-scale test was conducted prior to the field test to validate data analysis technique using piezo pressure sensors, developed in this study. Eight piezo pressure sensors were used located at different distances from the sinkhole center to measure the ground water levels (GWLs) during artificially made sinkhole events. A total of 24 scaled tests was conducted with different sinkhole soil thickness and initial GWL. The cone of water depression was observed during the tests, which indicates there are strong relationship between sinkhole and sinkhole occurrence. A novel peak-counting method was developed and validated to estimate spatiotemporal relations of the relations between GWLs and sinkhole collapse patterns.The field test was conducted at an active sinkhole site in Lake county, Florida to determine locations of points of breach and to monitor fluctuation GWL over time. Twenty piezometer sensors were installed, and the GWLs were monitored for three months at 30-min sampling rate. The daily moving average of GWL was calculated and visualized in ArcGIS map to understand spatiotemporal behavior of GWL at different locations from sinkhole positions. The monitoring results were compared with CPT, SPT and GPR results that were conducted prior to the piezo sensor installations. Strong correlations were observed between CPT, SPT, GPR and GWL results. From the results, it can be concluded that size and shape of the cone of water depression depend on dimensions of point discharges and properties of surrounding soil.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006511, ucf:51383
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006511

Title: An Integrated Hydrodynamic-Marsh Model with Applications in Fluvial, Marine, and Mixed Estuarine Systems.
Creator: Alizad, Karim, Hagen, Scott, Medeiros, Stephen, Wang, Dingbao, Weishampel, John, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Coastal wetlands experience fluctuating productivity when subjected to various stressors. One of the most impactful stressors is sea level rise (SLR) associated with global warming. Research has shown that under SLR, salt marshes may not have time to establish an equilibrium with sea level and may migrate landward or become open water. Salt marsh systems play an important role in the coastal ecosystem by providing intertidal habitats and food for birds, fish, crabs, mussels, and other animals...
Show moreCoastal wetlands experience fluctuating productivity when subjected to various stressors. One of the most impactful stressors is sea level rise (SLR) associated with global warming. Research has shown that under SLR, salt marshes may not have time to establish an equilibrium with sea level and may migrate landward or become open water. Salt marsh systems play an important role in the coastal ecosystem by providing intertidal habitats and food for birds, fish, crabs, mussels, and other animals. They also protect shorelines by dissipating flow and damping wave energy through an increase in drag forces. Due to the serious consequences of losing coastal wetlands, evaluating the potential future changes in their structure and distribution is necessary in order for coastal resource managers to make informed decisions. The objective of this study was to develop a spatially-explicit model by connecting a hydrodynamic model and a parametric marsh model and using it to assess the dynamic effects of SLR on salt marsh systems within three National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico. Coastal salt marsh systems are an excellent example of complex interrelations between physics and biology, and the resulting benefits to humanity. In order to investigate salt marsh productivity under projected SLR scenarios, a depth integrated hydrodynamic model was coupled to a parametric marsh model to capture the dynamic feedback loop between physics and biology. The hydrodynamic model calculates mean high water (MHW) and mean low water (MLW) within the river and tidal creeks by harmonic analysis of computed tidal constituents. The responses of MHW and MLW to SLR are nonlinear due to localized changes in the salt marsh platform elevation and biomass productivity (which influences bottom friction). Spatially-varying MHW and MLW are utilized in a two-dimensional application of the parametric Marsh Equilibrium Model to capture the effects of the hydrodynamics on biomass productivity and salt marsh accretion, where accretion rates are dependent on the spatial distribution of sediment deposition in the marsh. This model accounts both organic (decomposition of in-situ biomass) and inorganic (allochthonous) marsh platform accretion and the effects of spatial and temporal biomass density changes on tidal flows. The coupled hydro-marsh model, herein referred to as HYDRO-MEM, leverages an optimized coupling time step at which the two models exchange information and update the solution to capture the system's response to projected linear and non-linear SLR rates.Including accurate marsh table elevations into the model is crucial to obtain meaningful biomass productivity projections. A lidar-derived Digital Elevation Model (DEM) was corrected by incorporating Real Time Kinematic (RTK) surveying elevation data. Additionally, salt marshes continually adapt in an effort to reach an equilibrium within the ideal range of relative SLR and depth of inundation. The inputs to the model, specifically topography and bottom roughness coefficient, are updated using the biomass productivity results at each coupling time step to capture the interaction between the marsh and hydrodynamic models.The coupled model was tested and validated in the Timucuan marsh system, located in northeastern Florida by computing projected biomass productivity and marsh platform elevation under two SLR scenarios. The HYDRO-MEM model coupling protocol was assessed using a sensitivity study of the influence of coupling time step on the biomass productivity results with a comparison to results generated using the MEM approach only. Subsequently, the dynamic effects of SLR were investigated on salt marsh productivity within the three National Estuarine Research Reserves (NERRs) (Apalachicola, FL, Grand Bay, MS, and Weeks Bay, AL) in the Northern Gulf of Mexico (NGOM). These three NERRS are fluvial, marine and mixed estuarine systems, respectively. Each NERR has its own unique characteristics that influence the salt marsh ecosystems. The HYDRO-MEM model was used to assess the effects of four projections of low (0.2 m), intermediate-low (0.5 m), intermediate-high (1.2 m) and high (2.0 m) SLR on salt marsh productivity for the year 2100 for the fluvial dominated Apalachicola estuary, the marine dominated Grand Bay estuary, and the mixed Weeks Bay estuary. The results showed increased productivity under the low SLR scenario and decreased productivity under the intermediate-low, intermediate-high, and high SLR. In the intermediate-high and high SLR scenarios, most of the salt marshes drowned (converted to open water) or migrated to higher topography. These research presented herein advanced the spatial modeling and understanding of dynamic SLR effects on coastal wetland vulnerability. This tool can be used in any estuarine system to project salt marsh productivity and accretion under sea level change scenarios to better predict possible responses to projected SLR scenarios. The findings are not only beneficial to the scientific community, but also are useful to restoration, planning, and monitoring activities in the NERRs. Finally, the research outcomes can help policy makers and coastal managers to choose suitable approaches to meet the specific needs and address the vulnerabilities of these three estuaries, as well as other wetland systems in the NGOM and marsh systems anywhere in the world.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006523, ucf:51360
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006523

Title: Annual water balance model based on generalized proportionality relationship and its applications.
Creator: Tang, Yin, Wang, Dingbao, Kibler, Kelly, Singh, Arvind, Sumner, David, Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The main goal of this dissertation research is to derive a type of conceptual models for annual water balance at the watershed scale. The proportionality relationship from the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method was generalized to annual scale for deriving annual water balance model. As a result, a one-parameter Budyko equation was derived based on one-stage partitioning; and a four-parameter Budyko equation was derived based on two-stage partitioning. The derived equations balance...
Show moreThe main goal of this dissertation research is to derive a type of conceptual models for annual water balance at the watershed scale. The proportionality relationship from the Soil Conservation Service Curve Number method was generalized to annual scale for deriving annual water balance model. As a result, a one-parameter Budyko equation was derived based on one-stage partitioning; and a four-parameter Budyko equation was derived based on two-stage partitioning. The derived equations balance model parsimony and representation of dominant hydrologic processes, and provide a new framework to disentangle the roles of climate variability, vegetation, soil and topography on long-term water balance. Three applications of the derived equations were demonstrated. Firstly, the four-parameter Budyko equation was applied to 165 watersheds in the United States to disentangle the roles of climate variability, vegetation, soil and topography on long-term water balance. Secondly, the one-parameter Budyko equation was applied to a large-scale irrigation region. The historical annual total water storage change were reconstructed for assessing groundwater depletion due to irrigation pumping by integrating the derived equation and the satellite-based GRACE (Gravity Recovery and Climate Experiment) data. Thirdly, the one-parameter Budyko equation was used to model the impact of willow treatment on annual evapotranspiration through a two-year field experiment in the Upper St. Johns River marshes. An empirical relationship between the parameter and willow fractional coverage was developed, providing a useful tool for predicting long-term response of evapotranspiration to willow treatment. ?
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006958, ucf:51638
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006958

Title: Assessing Biofiltration Pretreatment for Ultrafiltration Membrane Processes.
Creator: Cumming, Andrea, Duranceau, Steven, Cooper, David, Randall, Andrew, Wang, Dingbao, Yestrebsky, Cherie, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: An engineered biological filtration (biofiltration) process treating a nutrient-enriched, low-alkalinity, organic-laden surface water downstream of conventional coagulation-clarification and upstream of an ultrafiltration (UF) membrane process was assessed for its treatment effectiveness. The impact of biofiltration pretreatment on UF membrane performance was evaluated holistically by investigating the native source water chemistry and extending the analysis into the drinking water...
Show moreAn engineered biological filtration (biofiltration) process treating a nutrient-enriched, low-alkalinity, organic-laden surface water downstream of conventional coagulation-clarification and upstream of an ultrafiltration (UF) membrane process was assessed for its treatment effectiveness. The impact of biofiltration pretreatment on UF membrane performance was evaluated holistically by investigating the native source water chemistry and extending the analysis into the drinking water distribution system. The biofiltration process was also compared in treatment performance to two alternative pretreatment technologies, including magnetic ion exchange (MIEX(&)#174;) and granular activated carbon (GAC) adsorption.The MIEX(&)#174;, GAC adsorption, and biologically active carbon (BAC) filtration pretreatments were integrated with conventional pretreatment then compared at the pilot-scale. Comparisons were based on collecting data regarding operational requirements, dissolved organic carbon (DOC) reduction, regulated disinfection byproduct (DBP) formation, and improvement on the downstream UF membrane operating performance. UF performance, as measured by the temperature corrected specific flux or mass transfer coefficient (MTC), was determined by calculating the percent MTC improvement relative to the existing conventional-UF process that served as the control. The pretreatment alternatives were further evaluated based on cost and non-cost considerations.Compared to the MIEX(&)#174; and GAC pretreatment alternatives, which achieved effective DOC removal (40 and 40 percent, respectively) and MTC improvement (14 and 30 percent, respectively), the BAC pretreatment achieved the lowest overall DOC removal (5 percent) and MTC improvement (4.5 percent). While MIEX(&)#174; relies on anion exchange and GAC relies on adsorption to target DOC removal, biofiltration uses microorganisms attached on the filter media to remove biodegradable DOC.Two mathematical models that establish an empirical relationship between the MTC improvement and the dimensionless alkalinity to substrate (ALK/DOC) ratio were developed. By combining the biofiltration results from the present research with findings of previous studies, an empirical relationship between the MTC improvement versus the ALK/DOC ratio was modeled using non-linear regression in Minitab(&)#174;. For surface water sources, UF MTC improvement can be simulated as a quadratic or Gaussian distribution function of the gram C/gram C dimensionless ALK/DOC ratio. According to the newly developed empirical models, biofiltration performance is optimized when the alkalinity to substrate ratio is between 10 and 14. For the first time a model has thus been developed that allows for a predictive means to optimize the operation of biofiltration as a pretreatment prior to UF membrane processes treating surface water.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005595, ucf:50260
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005595

Title: Drinking Water Infrastructure Assessment with Teleconnection Signals, Satellite Data Fusion and Mining.
Creator: Imen, Sanaz, Chang, Ni-bin, Wang, Dingbao, Wanielista, Martin, Bohlen, Patrick, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Adjustment of the drinking water treatment process as a simultaneous response to climate variations and water quality impact has been a grand challenge in water resource management in recent years. This desired and preferred capability depends on timely and quantitative knowledge to monitor the quality and availability of water. This issue is of great importance for the largest reservoir in the United States, Lake Mead, which is located in the proximity of a big metropolitan region - Las...
Show moreAdjustment of the drinking water treatment process as a simultaneous response to climate variations and water quality impact has been a grand challenge in water resource management in recent years. This desired and preferred capability depends on timely and quantitative knowledge to monitor the quality and availability of water. This issue is of great importance for the largest reservoir in the United States, Lake Mead, which is located in the proximity of a big metropolitan region - Las Vegas, Nevada. The water quality in Lake Mead is impaired by forest fires, soil erosion, and land use changes in nearby watersheds and wastewater effluents from the Las Vegas Wash. In addition, more than a decade of drought has caused a sharp drop by about 100 feet in the elevation of Lake Mead. These hydrological processes in the drought event led to the increased concentration of total organic carbon (TOC) and total suspended solids (TSS) in the lake. TOC in surface water is known as a precursor of disinfection byproducts in drinking water, and high TSS concentration in source water is a threat leading to possible clogging in the water treatment process. Since Lake Mead is a principal source of drinking water for over 25 million people, high concentrations of TOC and TSS may have a potential health impact. Therefore, it is crucial to develop an early warning system which is able to support rapid forecasting of water quality and availability. In this study, the creation of the nowcasting water quality model with satellite remote sensing technologies lays down the foundation for monitoring TSS and TOC, on a near real-time basis. Yet the novelty of this study lies in the development of a forecasting model to predict TOC and TSS values with the aid of remote sensing technologies on a daily basis. The forecasting process is aided by an iterative scheme via updating the daily satellite imagery in concert with retrieving the long-term memory from the past states with the aid of nonlinear autoregressive neural network with external input on a rolling basis onward. To account for the potential impact of long-term hydrological droughts, teleconnection signals were included on a seasonal basis in the Upper Colorado River basin which provides 97% of the inflow into Lake Mead. Identification of teleconnection patterns at a local scale is challenging, largely due to the coexistence of non-stationary and non-linear signals embedded within the ocean-atmosphere system. Empirical mode decomposition as well as wavelet analysis are utilized to extract the intrinsic trend and the dominant oscillation of the sea surface temperature (SST) and precipitation time series. After finding possible associations between the dominant oscillation of seasonal precipitation and global SST through lagged correlation analysis, the statistically significant index regions in the oceans are extracted. With these characterized associations, individual contribution of these SST forcing regions that are linked to the related precipitation responses are further quantified through the use of the extreme learning machine. Results indicate that the non-leading SST regions also contribute saliently to the terrestrial precipitation variability compared to some of the known leading SST regions and confirm the capability of predicting the hydrological drought events one season ahead of time. With such an integrated advancement, an early warning system can be constructed to bridge the current gap in source water monitoring for water supply.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005632, ucf:50215
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005632

Title: Developing a Group Decision Support System (GDSS) for decision making under uncertainty.
Creator: Mokhtari, Soroush, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Madani Larijani, Kaveh, Wang, Dingbao, Xanthopoulos, Petros, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Multi-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems are often associated with tradeoffs between performances of the available alternative solutions under decision making criteria. These problems become more complex when performances are associated with uncertainty. This study proposes a stochastic MCDM procedure that can handle uncertainty in MCDM problems. The proposed method coverts a stochastic MCDM problem into many deterministic ones through a Monte-Carlo (MC) selection. Each deterministic...
Show moreMulti-Criteria Decision Making (MCDM) problems are often associated with tradeoffs between performances of the available alternative solutions under decision making criteria. These problems become more complex when performances are associated with uncertainty. This study proposes a stochastic MCDM procedure that can handle uncertainty in MCDM problems. The proposed method coverts a stochastic MCDM problem into many deterministic ones through a Monte-Carlo (MC) selection. Each deterministic problem is then solved using a range of MCDM methods and the ranking order of the alternatives is established for each deterministic MCDM. The final ranking of the alternatives can be determined based on winning probabilities and ranking distribution of the alternatives. Ranking probability distributions can help the decision-maker understand the risk associated with the overall ranking of the options. Therefore, the final selection of the best alternative can be affected by the risk tolerance of the decision-makers. A Group Decision Support System (GDSS) is developed here with a user-friendly interface to facilitate the application of the proposed MC-MCDM approach in real-world multi-participant decision making for an average user. The GDSS uses a range of decision making methods to increase the robustness of the decision analysis outputs and to help understand the sensitivity of the results to level of cooperation among the decision-makers. The decision analysis methods included in the GDSS are: 1) conventional MCDM methods (Maximin, Lexicographic, TOPSIS, SAW and Dominance), appropriate when there is a high cooperation level among the decision-makers; 2) social choice rules or voting methods (Condorcet Choice, Borda scoring, Plurality, Anti-Plurality, Median Voting, Hare System of voting, Majoritarian Compromise ,and Condorcet Practical), appropriate for cases with medium cooperation level among the decision-makers; and 3) Fallback Bargaining methods (Unanimity, Q-Approval and Fallback Bargaining with Impasse), appropriate for cases with non-cooperative decision-makers. To underline the utility of the proposed method and the developed GDSS in providing valuable insights into real-world hydro-environmental group decision making, the GDSS is applied to a benchmark example, namely the California's Sacramento-San Joaquin Delta decision making problem. The implications of GDSS' outputs (winning probabilities and ranking distributions) are discussed. Findings are compared with those of previous studies, which used other methods to solve this problem, to highlight the sensitivity of the results to the choice of decision analysis methods and/or different cooperation levels among the decision-makers.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004723, ucf:49821
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004723

Title: Identifying inundation-driven effects among intertidal Crassostrea virginica in a commercially important Gulf of Mexico estuary.
Creator: Solomon, Joshua, Walters, Linda, Weishampel, John, Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro, Hagen, Scott, Wang, Dingbao, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Sea level rise and changing storm frequency and intensity resulting from climate change create tremendous amounts of uncertainty for coastal species. Intertidal species may be especially affected since they are dependent on daily inundation and exposure. The eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica is an economically and biologically important sessile intertidal species ranging from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Declines and changes in distribution of oyster populations has forced commercial...
Show moreSea level rise and changing storm frequency and intensity resulting from climate change create tremendous amounts of uncertainty for coastal species. Intertidal species may be especially affected since they are dependent on daily inundation and exposure. The eastern oyster Crassostrea virginica is an economically and biologically important sessile intertidal species ranging from Canada to the Gulf of Mexico. Declines and changes in distribution of oyster populations has forced commercial harvesting to spread from subtidal to intertidal reefs. We investigated the potential responses of intertidal C. virginica to sea level rise, and the response of larval settlement to sedimentation which is likely to increase with higher water levels and storm frequency. Inundation was used as a proxy for sea level rise. We hypothesized four possible outcomes for intertidal oyster reefs as a result of changes in inundation due to sea level rise: (a) intertidal reefs become subtidal and remain in place, (b) intertidal reefs will be lost, (c) intertidal reefs migrate shoreward upslope and remain intertidal, and (d) intertidal reefs will grow in elevation and remain intertidal. To test the plausibility of these four outcomes, oyster ladders were placed at two sites within Apalachicola Bay, Florida, USA. Ladders supported oyster recruitment mats at five heights within the range of intertidal elevations. The bottom-most mat was placed near mean low tide, and the top mat near mean high tide to investigate the effect of tidal inundation time on C. virginica. Sediment traps were attached to ladders with openings at equal elevation to the oyster mats. Ladders were deployed for one year starting in June 2012, and again in June 2013, during peak oyster recruitment season. Monthly for six months during year one, sediment was collected from traps, dried to constant weight and weighed to obtain a monthly average for total sediment at each elevation. At the end of one year, oyster mats were collected from the field and examined for the following responses: live oyster density, mean oyster shell length of live oysters, mean oyster shell angle of growth relative to the benthos, and mean number of sessile competitors. We used AICc to identify the most plausible models using elevation, site, and year as independent variables.Oyster density peaked at intermediate inundation at both sites (maximum 1740 oysters per m2), it decreased slightly at the mean low tide, and sharply at the mean high tide. This response varied between years and sites. Mean oyster shell length peaked near mean low tide (6.7 cm), and decreased with increasing elevation. It varied between years and sites. Oyster shell angle of growth relative to the benthos showed a quadratic response for elevation; site but not year affected this response. Sessile competitor density also showed a quadratic response for elevation and varied between sites and years. Barnacles were the primary spatial competitor reaching densities of up to 28,328 barnacles per m2. Total monthly sedimentation peaked at the lowest elevations, and varied by site, with an order of magnitude difference between sites. Sediment increased with decreasing elevation.Outcomes a, c, and d were found to be viable results of sea level rise, ruling out complete loss of intertidal reefs. Outcome (a) would be associated with decrease in oyster density and increase in oyster length. Outcome (c) would require the laying of oyster cultch upslope and shoreward of current intertidal reefs, as well as the removal of any hard armoring or development. Outcome (d) remained possible, but is the least likely requiring a balance between sedimentation, oyster angle of growth, and recruitment. This should be further investigated. A laboratory experiment was designed to test relative impact of varying sediment grain sizes on settlement of C. virginica larvae. Previous studies showed that suspended solids resulted in decreased larval settlement when using mixed sediment grain sizes. Predicted storm levels and hurricane levels of total suspended solids were used in flow tanks. Sediment from the field experiment was sieved into seven size classes, the most common five of which were used in the experiment since they represented 98.8% of total mass. Flow tanks were designed and built that held 12 aged oyster shells, instant ocean saltwater, and sediment. Oyster larvae were added to the flow tanks and allowed one hour to settle on shells. Each run utilized one of the five size classes of sediment at either a high or low concentration. Following the one-hour settlement period, oyster shells were removed from the flow tank and settled larvae were counted under a dissecting microscope. Settlement was standardized by settlement area using Image J. AICc model selection was performed and the selected model included only grain size, but not concentration. A Tukey's post hoc test differentiated (<)63 ?m from 500 (-) 2000 ?m, with the (<) 63 (&)#181;m grain size having a negative effect on oyster larval settlement. This indicates that the smaller grain sizes of suspended solids are more detrimental to oyster larval settlement than larger grain sizes. The oyster ladder experiment will help resource managers predict and plan for oyster reef migration by cultch laying, and or associated changes in oyster density and shell length if shoreward reef growth is not allowed to occur. The laboratory experiment will help to predict the impacts of future storms on oyster larval recruitment. Together this information can help managers conserve as much remaining oyster habitat as possible by predicting future impacts of climate change on oysters.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005717, ucf:50132
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005717

Title: A Systems Approach to Sustainable Energy Portfolio Development.
Creator: Hadian Niasar, Saeed, Reinhart, Debra, Madani Larijani, Kaveh, Wang, Dingbao, Lee, Woo Hyoung, Pazour, Jennifer, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Adequate energy supply has become one of the vital components of human development and economic growth of nations. In fact, major components of the global economy such as transportation services, communications, industrial processes, and construction activities are dependent on adequate energy resources. Even mining and extraction of energy resources, including harnessing the forces of nature to produce energy, are dependent on accessibility of sufficient energy in the appropriate form at the...
Show moreAdequate energy supply has become one of the vital components of human development and economic growth of nations. In fact, major components of the global economy such as transportation services, communications, industrial processes, and construction activities are dependent on adequate energy resources. Even mining and extraction of energy resources, including harnessing the forces of nature to produce energy, are dependent on accessibility of sufficient energy in the appropriate form at the desired location. Therefore, energy resource planning and management to provide appropriate energy in terms of both quantity and quality has become a priority at the global level. The increasing demand for energy due to growing population, higher living standards, and economic development magnifies the importance of reliable energy plans. In addition, the uneven distribution of traditional fossil fuel energy sources on the Earth and the resulting political and economic interactions are other sources of complexity within energy planning. The competition over fossil fuels that exists due to gradual depletion of such sources and the tremendous thirst of current global economic operations for these sources, as well as the sensitivity of fossil fuel supplies and prices to global conditions, all add to the complexity of effective energy planning. In addition to diversification of fossil fuel supply sources as a means of increasing national energy security, many governments are investing in non-fossil fuels, especially renewable energy sources, to combat the risks associated with adequate energy supply. Moreover, increasing the number of energy sources also adds further complication to energy planning. Global warming, resulting from concentration of greenhouse gas emissions in the atmosphere, influences energy infrastructure investments and operations management as a result of international treaty obligations and other regulations requiring that emissions be cut to sustainable levels. Burning fossil fuel, as one of the substantial driving factors of global warming and energy insecurity, is mostly impacted by such policies, pushing forward the implementation of renewable energy polices. Thus, modern energy portfolios comprise a mix of renewable energy sources and fossil fuels, with an increasing share of renewables over time. Many governments have been setting renewable energy targets that mandate increasing energy production from such sources over time. Reliance on renewable energy sources certainly helps with reduction of greenhouse gas emissions while improving national energy security. However, the growing implementation of renewable energy has some limitations. Such energy technologies are not always as cheap as fossil fuel sources, mostly due to immaturity of these energy sources in most locations as well as high prices of the materials and equipment to harness the forces of nature and transform them to usable energy. In addition, despite the fact that renewable energy sources are traditionally considered to be environmentally friendly, compared to fossil fuels, they sometimes require more natural resources such as water and land to operate and produce energy. Hence, the massive production of energy from these sources may lead to water shortage, land use change, increasing food prices, and insecurity of water supplies. In other words, the energy production from renewables might be a solution to reduce greenhouse gas emissions, but it might become a source of other problems such as scarcity of natural resources.The fact that future energy mix will rely more on renewable sources is undeniable, mostly due to depletion of fossil fuel sources over time. However, the aforementioned limitations pose a challenge to general policies that encourage immediate substitution of fossil fuels with renewables to battle climate change. In fact, such limitations should be taken into account in developing reliable energy policies that seek adequate energy supply with minimal secondary effects. Traditional energy policies have been suggesting the expansion of least cost energy options, which were mostly fossil fuels. Such sources used to be considered riskless energy options with low volatility in the absence of competitive energy markets in which various energy technologies are competing over larger market shares. Evolution of renewable energy technologies, however, complicated energy planning due to emerging risks that emanated mostly from high price volatility. Hence, energy planning began to be seen as investment problems in which the costs of energy portfolio were minimized while attempting to manage associated price risks. So, energy policies continued to rely on risky fossil fuel options and small shares of renewables with the primary goal to reduce generation costs. With emerging symptoms of climate change and the resulting consequences, the new policies accounted for the costs of carbon emissions control in addition to other costs. Such policies also encouraged the increased use of renewable energy sources. Emissions control cost is not an appropriate measure of damages because these costs are substantially less than the economic damages resulting from emissions. In addition, the effects of such policies on natural resources such as water and land is not directly taken into account. However, sustainable energy policies should be able to capture such complexities, risks, and tradeoffs within energy planning. Therefore, there is a need for adequate supply of energy while addressing issues such as global warming, energy security, economy, and environmental impacts of energy production processes. The effort in this study is to develop an energy portfolio assessment model to address the aforementioned concerns.This research utilized energy performance data, gathered from extensive review of articles and governmental institution reports. The energy performance values, namely carbon footprint, water footprint, land footprint, and cost of energy production were carefully selected in order to have the same basis for comparison purposes. If needed, adjustment factors were applied. In addition, the Energy Information Administration (EIA) energy projection scenarios were selected as the basis for estimating the share of the energy sources over the years until 2035. Furthermore, the resource availability in different states within the U.S. was obtained from publicly available governmental institutions that provide such statistics. Specifically, the carbon emissions magnitudes (metric tons per capita) for different states were extracted from EIA databases, states' freshwater withdrawals (cubic meters per capita) were found from USGS databases, states' land availability values (square kilometers) were obtained from the U.S. Census Bureau, and economic resource availability (GDP per capita) for different states were acquired from the Bureau of Economic Analysis.In this study, first, the impacts of energy production processes on global freshwater resources are investigated based on different energy projection scenarios. Considering the need for investing on energy sources with minimum environmental impacts while securing maximum efficiency, a systems approach is adopted to quantify the resource use efficiency of energy sources under sustainability indicators. The sensitivity and robustness of the resource use efficiency scores are then investigated versus existing energy performance uncertainties and varying resource availability conditions. The resource use efficiency of the energy sources is then regionalized for different resource limitation conditions in states within the U.S. Finally, a sustainable energy planning framework is developed based on Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT) with consideration of the resource use efficiency measures and associated efficiency risks.In the energy-water nexus investigation, the energy sources are categorized into 10 major groups with distinct water footprint magnitudes and associated uncertainties. The global water footprint of energy production processes are then estimated for different EIA energy mix scenarios over the 2012-2035 period. The outcomes indicate that the water footprint of energy production increases by almost 50% depending on the scenario. In fact, growing energy production is not the only reason for increasing the energy related water footprint. Increasing the share of water intensive energy sources in the future energy mix is another driver of increasing global water footprint of energy in the future. The results of the energies' water footprint analysis demonstrate the need for a policy to reduce the water use of energy generation. Furthermore, the outcomes highlight the importance of considering the secondary impacts of energy production processes besides their carbon footprint and costs. The results also have policy implications for future energy investments in order to increase the water use efficiency of energy sources per unit of energy production, especially those with significant water footprint such as hydropower and biofuels.In the next step, substantial efforts have been dedicated to evaluating the efficiency of different energy sources from resource use perspective. For this purpose, a system of systems approach is adopted to measure the resource use efficiency of energy sources in the presence of trade-offs between independent yet interacting systems (climate, water, land, economy). Hence, a stochastic multi-criteria decision making (MCDM) framework is developed to compute the resource use efficiency scores for four sustainability assessment criteria, namely carbon footprint, water footprint, land footprint, and cost of energy production considering existing performance uncertainties. The energy sources' performances under aforementioned sustainability criteria are represented in ranges due to uncertainties that exist because of technological and regional variations. Such uncertainties are captured by the model based on Monte-Carlo selection of random values and are translated into stochastic resource use efficiency scores. As the notion of optimality is not unique, five MCDM methods are exploited in the model to counterbalance the bias toward definition of optimality. This analysis is performed under (")no resource limitation(") conditions to highlight the quality of different energy sources from a resource use perspective. The resource use efficiency is defined as a dimensionless number in scale of 0-100, with greater numbers representing a higher efficiency. The outcomes of this analysis indicate that despite increasing popularity, not all renewable energy sources are more resource use efficient than non-renewable sources. This is especially true for biofuels and different types of ethanol that demonstrate lower resource use efficiency scores compared to natural gas and nuclear energy. It is found that geothermal energy and biomass energy from miscanthus are the most and least resource use efficient energy alternatives based on the performance data available in the literature. The analysis also shows that none of the energy sources are strictly dominant or strictly dominated by other energy sources. Following the resource use efficiency analysis, sensitivity and robustness analyses are performed to determine the impacts of resource limitations and existing performance uncertainties on resource use efficiency, respectively. Sensitivity analysis indicates that geothermal energy and ethanol from sugarcane have the lowest and highest resource use efficiency sensitivity, respectively. Also, it is found that from a resource use perspective, concentrated solar power (CSP) and hydropower are respectively the most and least robust energy options with respect to the existing performance uncertainties in the literature.In addition to resource use efficiency analysis, sensitivity analysis and robustness analysis, of energy sources, this study also investigates the scheme of the energy production mix within a specific region with certain characteristics, resource limitations, and availabilities. In fact, different energy sources, especially renewables, vary in demand for natural resources (such as water and land), environmental impacts, geographic requirements, and type of infrastructure required for energy production. In fact, the efficiency of energy sources from a resource use perspective is dependent upon regional specifications, so the energy portfolio varies for different regions due to varying resource availability conditions. Hence, the resource use efficiency scores of different energy technologies are calculated based on the aforementioned sustainability criteria and regional resource availability and limitation conditions (emissions, water resources, land, and GDP) within different U.S. states, regardless of the feasibility of energy alternatives in each state. Sustainability measures are given varying weights based on the emissions cap, available economic resources, land, and water resources in each state, upon which the resource use efficiency of energy sources is calculated by utilizing the system of systems framework developed in the previous step. Efficiency scores are graphically illustrated on GIS-based maps for different states and different energy sources. The results indicate that for some states, fossil fuels such as coal and natural gas are as efficient as renewables like wind and solar energy technologies from resource use perspective. In other words, energy sources' resource use efficiency is significantly sensitive to available resources and limitations in a certain location.Moreover, energy portfolio development models have been created in order to determine the share of different energy sources of total energy production, in order to meet energy demand, maintain energy security, and address climate change with the least possible adverse impacts on the environment. In fact, the traditional (")least cost(") energy portfolios are outdated and should be replaced with (")most efficient(") ones that are not only cost-effective, but also environmentally friendly. Hence, the calculated resource use efficiency scores and associated statistical analysis outcomes for a range of renewable and nonrenewable energy sources are fed into a portfolio selection framework to choose the appropriate energy mixes associated with the risk attitudes of decision makers. For this purpose, Modern Portfolio Theory (MPT) and Post-Modern Portfolio Theory (PMPT) are both employed to illustrate how different interpretations of (")risk of return(") yield different energy portfolios. The results indicate that 2012 energy mix and projected world's 2035 energy portfolio are not sustainable in terms of resource use efficiency and could be substituted with more reliable, more effective portfolios that address energy security and global warming with minimal environmental and economic impacts.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0005001, ucf:50020
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005001

LiDAR (5)	+ -
climate change (5)	+ -
remote sensing (4)	+ -
groundwater (3)	+ -
sea level rise (3)	+ -

sinkhole (3)	+ -
Apalachicola (2)	+ -
Evaporation (2)	+ -
Gulf of Mexico (2)	+ -
SWAT (2)	+ -
Silver Springs (2)	+ -
Sinkhole (2)	+ -
Turbidity (2)	+ -
Water balance (2)	+ -
climate aridity index (2)	+ -
groundwater depletion (2)	+ -
management (2)	+ -
nitrate (2)	+ -
perennial stream (2)	+ -
water balance (2)	+ -
ADCIRC (1)	+ -
ARIMA model (1)	+ -
Africa drought (1)	+ -
Anion Exchange (1)	+ -
Annual Water Balance (1)	+ -
Apalachicola National Estuarine Research Reserve (1)	+ -
AquaCrop (1)	+ -
Asymmetry (1)	+ -
BAM (1)	+ -
Base flow recession (1)	+ -

University of Central Florida (54)	+ -
Wang, Dingbao (54)	+ -
Chopra, Manoj (15)	+ -
Medeiros, Stephen (11)	+ -
Hagen, Scott (10)	+ -

Singh, Arvind (10)	+ -
Nam, Boo Hyun (9)	+ -
Duranceau, Steven (7)	+ -
Randall, Andrew (7)	+ -
Kibler, Kelly (6)	+ -
Weishampel, John (6)	+ -
Chang, Ni-bin (5)	+ -
Madani Larijani, Kaveh (5)	+ -
Sumner, David (5)	+ -
Wanielista, Martin (4)	+ -
Bohlen, Patrick (3)	+ -
Mayo, Talea (3)	+ -
Sadmani, A H M Anwar (3)	+ -
Gogo-Abite, Ikiensinma (2)	+ -
Nnadi, Fidelia (2)	+ -
O'Reilly, Andrew (2)	+ -
Quintana-Ascencio, Pedro (2)	+ -
Reinhart, Debra (2)	+ -
Rowney, Alexander (2)	+ -
Sandhu, Daljit (2)	+ -
Xanthopoulos, Petros (2)	+ -
Yestrebsky, Cherie (2)	+ -
Zheng, Qipeng (2)	+ -
Abdel-Aty, Mohamed (1)	+ -
Al-Labban, Salama (1)	+ -

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