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A Generic Framework For Multi-Method Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems Using Discrete Event, System Dynamics and Agent Based Approaches.
Title
A Generic Framework For Multi-Method Modeling and Simulation of Complex Systems Using Discrete Event, System Dynamics and Agent Based Approaches.
Creator
Mykoniatis, Konstantinos, Karwowski, Waldemar, Kincaid, John, Xanthopoulos, Petros, Akbas, Ilhan, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Decisions about Modeling and Simulation (M(&)S) of Complex Systems (CS) need to be evaluated prior to implementation. Discrete Event (DE), System Dynamics (SD), and Agent Based (AB) are three different M(&)S approaches widely applied to enhance decision-making of complex systems. However, single type M(&)S approaches can face serious challenges in representing the overall multidimensional nature of CS and may result in the design of oversimplified models excluding important factors....
Show moreDecisions about Modeling and Simulation (M(&)S) of Complex Systems (CS) need to be evaluated prior to implementation. Discrete Event (DE), System Dynamics (SD), and Agent Based (AB) are three different M(&)S approaches widely applied to enhance decision-making of complex systems. However, single type M(&)S approaches can face serious challenges in representing the overall multidimensional nature of CS and may result in the design of oversimplified models excluding important factors. Conceptual frameworks are necessary to offer useful guidance for combining and/or integrating different M(&)S approaches. Although several hybrid M(&)S frameworks have been described and are currently deployed, there is limited guidance on when, why and how to combine, and/or integrate DE, SD, and AB approaches. The existing hybrid frameworks focus more on how to deal with specific problems rather than to provide a generic way of applicability to various problem situations.The main aim of this research is to develop a generic framework for Multi-Method Modeling and Simulation of CS, which provides a practical guideline to integrated deployment or combination of DE, SD, and AB M(&)S methods. The key contributions of this dissertation include: (1) a meta-analysis literature review that identifies criteria and generic types of interaction relationships that are served as a basis for the development of a multi-method modeling and simulation framework; (2) a methodology and a framework that guide the user through the development of multi-method simulation models to solve CS problems; (3) an algorithm that recommends appropriate M(&)S method(s) based on the user selected criteria for user defined objective(s); (4) the implementation and evaluation of multi method simulation models based on the framework's recommendation in diverse domains; and (5) the comparison of multi-method simulation models created by following the multi-method modeling and simulation framework.It is anticipated that this research will inspire and motivate students, researchers, practitioners and decision makers engaged in M(&)S to become aware of the benefits of the cross-fertilization of the three key M(&)S methods.
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Date Issued
2015
Identifier
CFE0005980, ucf:50762
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005980
Calibrating a System Dynamic Model Within an Integrative Framework to Test Foreign Policy Choices
Title
Calibrating a System Dynamic Model Within an Integrative Framework to Test Foreign Policy Choices.
Creator
Kavetsky, Carlos, Morrow, Patricia Bockelman, Wiegand, Rudolf, Wu, Annie, Akbas, Ilhan, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Political science uses international relations (IR) theory to explain state-actor political behavior. Research suggests that this theoretical framework can inform a predictive model incorporating features of systems dynamics (SD) and agent based (AB) modeling. The Foreign Policy Model (ForPol) herein applies Alexander Y. Lubyansky's (2014) SD model for macro-political behavior to represent behaviors between real systems and mental models. While verifying and validating the resulting SD/AB/IR...
Show morePolitical science uses international relations (IR) theory to explain state-actor political behavior. Research suggests that this theoretical framework can inform a predictive model incorporating features of systems dynamics (SD) and agent based (AB) modeling. The Foreign Policy Model (ForPol) herein applies Alexander Y. Lubyansky's (2014) SD model for macro-political behavior to represent behaviors between real systems and mental models. While verifying and validating the resulting SD/AB/IR holistic model requires an extensive comprehensive research agenda, the present work will take a closer examination at input parameter calibration and conducting typical runs of the SD portion of the model as a first step in the testing, verification and validation process of the proposed integrative model. This thesis proposes incorporating an AB paradigm drawn from work by Claudio Cioffi-Revilla (2009), Edward P. MacKerrow (2003), David L. Rousseau (2006), Joshua M. Epstein and Robert Axtell (1996) as a future hybrid extension.The model applies a SD approach for the modeling of macro-political aggregate behavior. Therefore, the deep analysis of the SD portion of ForPol is modeled and calibrated in Vensim, using empirical data from the 1967 Arab-Israeli Six Day War as a pilot. Interactions within the model actualize Choucri, et. al. (2006), definition of state stability and agent behavior aspects of Cioffi-Revilla's (2009) SimPol polity model. Following calibration results discussion, the present work closes with consideration of future research directions.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006750, ucf:51848
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006750