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WHEN TO STRIKE: EXPLORING THE VARIABLES THAT LEAD TO SUCCESSFUL DECAPITATION STRIKES
Title
WHEN TO STRIKE: EXPLORING THE VARIABLES THAT LEAD TO SUCCESSFUL DECAPITATION STRIKES.
Creator
Pierres, Renzo, Boutton, Andrew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The purpose of this thesis is to determine how different variables can affect a terrorist group's reaction to a targeted leadership strike, known as a decapitation strike. Decapitation strikes often produce unwanted results, such as a splintering of the terrorist group, or a failure to destroy the group. It is important that we understand which variables can lead to a group's destruction after a decapitation strike, to maximize the decapitation's effectiveness. In my research I have...
Show moreThe purpose of this thesis is to determine how different variables can affect a terrorist group's reaction to a targeted leadership strike, known as a decapitation strike. Decapitation strikes often produce unwanted results, such as a splintering of the terrorist group, or a failure to destroy the group. It is important that we understand which variables can lead to a group's destruction after a decapitation strike, to maximize the decapitation's effectiveness. In my research I have determined that group size, group ideological extremism, and the role of the leader targeted all have a substantial impact on the success of the decapitation strike. Using these three variables, I will examine three groups which have varying size, extremism, and leadership, and determine whether the decapitation strikes were successful and how these variables affected the results.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000488, ucf:45848
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000488
PRO-GOVERNMENT MILITIAS AND THE LEGACY OF MILITARY RULE IN LATIN AMERICA
Title
PRO-GOVERNMENT MILITIAS AND THE LEGACY OF MILITARY RULE IN LATIN AMERICA.
Creator
Mendelsohn, Alexander, Boutton, Andrew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Currently Latin America experiences a phenomenon of widely varying levels of violence across the region. Many countries, such as El Salvador and Honduras, have exceptionally high murder rates upwards of 40 homicides per 100,000 people (UNODC 2015). Other countries, such as Uruguay and Argentina, have relatively low rates, below 10 homicides per 100,000 people (UNODC 2015). I believe this variation stems from the use of pro-government militias specifically employed in the past by military...
Show moreCurrently Latin America experiences a phenomenon of widely varying levels of violence across the region. Many countries, such as El Salvador and Honduras, have exceptionally high murder rates upwards of 40 homicides per 100,000 people (UNODC 2015). Other countries, such as Uruguay and Argentina, have relatively low rates, below 10 homicides per 100,000 people (UNODC 2015). I believe this variation stems from the use of pro-government militias specifically employed in the past by military governments as tools of suppression. Under the guise of combating subversive elements within their countries, these groups were used to silence and repress those who opposed the military governments. Employing civilians, active military, police officers and high-ranking government officials; these groups often carried clandestine and sometimes public ties to their governments. By examining the origins, afterlives, and level of control exerted over these pro-government militias in Argentina and El Salvador; this study aims to understand the role these groups played in the dispersion of violence throughout society ultimately accounting for the variation we see today.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000517, ucf:45660
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000517
The African Puzzle: A Study of Democratic Backsliding in Sub Saharan Africa
Title
The African Puzzle: A Study of Democratic Backsliding in Sub Saharan Africa.
Creator
Rice, Ailbhe, Powell, Jonathan, Boutton, Andrew, Bledsoe, Robert, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The following study examines the future of democratization and the apparent trend towards autocratization within the context of democratic backsliding in Sub-Saharan Africa. Initially, the findings indicate that regionally, backsliding is not acting fundamentally different in Sub-Saharan Africa when compared to other regions. The analysis finds that regime duration and civil conflict are both significant when it comes to the study of democratic backsliding. The variable for the prior military...
Show moreThe following study examines the future of democratization and the apparent trend towards autocratization within the context of democratic backsliding in Sub-Saharan Africa. Initially, the findings indicate that regionally, backsliding is not acting fundamentally different in Sub-Saharan Africa when compared to other regions. The analysis finds that regime duration and civil conflict are both significant when it comes to the study of democratic backsliding. The variable for the prior military regime's is extremely significant in all of the models and is, therefore, a strong indicator of backsliding in Africa. The chief takeaway from the study is in the variable for economic growth and finds that as economic growth increases the likelihood of backsliding decreases. This variable is negative and significant for all of the models, but if Africa is taken out of the analysis the trend ultimately disappears, which indicates that Africa is potentially driving this trend of economic growth and backsliding.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007360, ucf:52080
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007360
More Guns, Less Butter, and Officers at the Table: Understanding the Nexus between the Military's Integration into Politics and Resource Allocation in Democracies and Non-Democracies
Title
More Guns, Less Butter, and Officers at the Table: Understanding the Nexus between the Military's Integration into Politics and Resource Allocation in Democracies and Non-Democracies.
Creator
Ben Hammou, Salah, Powell, Jonathan, Boutton, Andrew, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The civilianization of government is often seen as a necessary prerequisite for successful democratization and healthy civil-military relations. This thesis explores the impact of integrating the military into political decision-making on the distribution of (")guns(") and (")butter(") (-) military spending and social spending - across dictatorships and democracies. Whereas a general consensus suggests that autocracies allocate greater goods to the military and fewer goods to the general...
Show moreThe civilianization of government is often seen as a necessary prerequisite for successful democratization and healthy civil-military relations. This thesis explores the impact of integrating the military into political decision-making on the distribution of (")guns(") and (")butter(") (-) military spending and social spending - across dictatorships and democracies. Whereas a general consensus suggests that autocracies allocate greater goods to the military and fewer goods to the general public relative to democracies, an understudied variable is the military's integration into politics in both democracies and autocracies. Given that military elites have greater incentives relative to civilian elites to prioritize military spending over social spending, I expect that integrating officers into politics should yield greater military outlays and fewer social outlays relative to more civilianized regimes, democratic or otherwise.Drawing on a number of theories concerning contentious civil-military relations, I frame this process of integration and its subsequent consequence as part of a broader means to ameliorate commitment issues between leaders and the armed forces. Specifically, I view power-sharing with military elites as a potential tool democrats and dictators may use to ensure the loyalty of the armed forces and mitigate the threat of defection or a coup d'etat. I test my arguments using data on the proportion of national cabinet positions held by military officers across 138 countries between 1964-2008. Offering some support for my expectations, this thesis highlights the necessity of fine-tuned data to explore civil-military processes and reasserts that the military may influence politics across multiple regime settings and outside of overtly ruling the country..
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFE0007784, ucf:52367
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007784
Commitment and Credibility in FDI
Title
Commitment and Credibility in FDI.
Creator
Sullivan, Kathleen, Hamann, Kerstin, Edwards, Barry, Boutton, Andrew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
How can firms in foreign direct investment (FDI) best protect their assets from host government contract beach? FDI is the largest and most stable form of external financing to less developed countries (LDCs). It increases job growth, technological development, and efficiency in the host country, subsequently increasing economic development. Companies prefer to invest in countries that are less prone to contract breach. I propose that credibility of commitments can help explain variation in...
Show moreHow can firms in foreign direct investment (FDI) best protect their assets from host government contract beach? FDI is the largest and most stable form of external financing to less developed countries (LDCs). It increases job growth, technological development, and efficiency in the host country, subsequently increasing economic development. Companies prefer to invest in countries that are less prone to contract breach. I propose that credibility of commitments can help explain variation in contract breach. I propose that firms are most likely to avoid contract breach when they are involved in supply chains and when the host country has a preferential trade agreement (PTA).I measure this relationship using a difference of means test and logistic regression. Using data from 1992-2008 from the International Centre for Settlement of Investment Disputes (ICSID), I find that on average, the least amount of cases filed involved supply chains and PTAs. Only 4% of cases involved supply chains and PTAs, suggesting a protective force in FDI. The interaction between supply chains and PTAs has a significantly positive effect on investors winning their cases in the ICSID. My results suggest that in the event of a contract breach, my interaction variable of membership in supply chains and PTA's help investors protect their assets. The implications of these findings are twofold. To safeguard their FDI, firms can ensure better protection from contract breach through supply chains. Furthermore, host countries can attract more FDI from PTAs. For future research, I suggest case study analysis as well as interviews with representatives from foreign firms that have dealt with contract breach.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFE0007866, ucf:52795
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007866
The Russian Connection: How Russia Became a Leader in the World's Human Trafficking Market
Title
The Russian Connection: How Russia Became a Leader in the World's Human Trafficking Market.
Creator
De Mauro, Anthony, Mousseau, Demet, Dolan, Thomas, Boutton, Andrew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis assesses how the history of the USSR and its collapse affected the human trafficking market. By conducting a historical analysis of the Soviet Union, key aspects of Soviet society were determined that allowed for the human trafficking market to establish and operate extremely lucratively; a focus on some of the established factors of human trafficking including corruption, law enforcement, the economy, organized crime, and the dissolution of the Soviet government. While this...
Show moreThis thesis assesses how the history of the USSR and its collapse affected the human trafficking market. By conducting a historical analysis of the Soviet Union, key aspects of Soviet society were determined that allowed for the human trafficking market to establish and operate extremely lucratively; a focus on some of the established factors of human trafficking including corruption, law enforcement, the economy, organized crime, and the dissolution of the Soviet government. While this thesis highlights the historical factors of Russian human trafficking, this thesis does not determine why human trafficking exists beyond the surface exploitation that human trafficking consists of. This thesis also does not explore or explain why Russian human trafficking continues to exist for nearly twenty-five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This thesis does conclude that the history of the Soviet Union is almost tailor made for the purposes of human trafficking, with the combination of organized crime, an economy that constantly struggled, a government that was full of corruption and focused on too many endeavors, and a population that faced starvations, a lack of material goods, and political persecution all contributed to Russia having a large supply (population) of victims to be potentially exploited.
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Date Issued
2016
Identifier
CFE0006450, ucf:51444
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006450
Determinants of Terrorist Target Selection: A Quantitative Analysis
Title
Determinants of Terrorist Target Selection: A Quantitative Analysis.
Creator
Haywood, Taylor, Handberg, Roger, Dolan, Thomas, Boutton, Andrew, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Existing research on the subject of terrorism is vast, spanning causes of terrorism, the membership of terrorist groups, types of terrorist attacks, and more. One area of terrorism research, though, has received only limited consideration: terrorist target selection. What research does exist explains target selection almost exclusively as a function of ideology (Asal et al. 2009, 270 and 274; Drake 1998b, 54-56 and 58). However, such a limited causal focus obscures other possible, and...
Show moreExisting research on the subject of terrorism is vast, spanning causes of terrorism, the membership of terrorist groups, types of terrorist attacks, and more. One area of terrorism research, though, has received only limited consideration: terrorist target selection. What research does exist explains target selection almost exclusively as a function of ideology (Asal et al. 2009, 270 and 274; Drake 1998b, 54-56 and 58). However, such a limited causal focus obscures other possible, and probable, explanations of terrorist target selection. This paper proposes an alternative explanation of terrorist target selection that includes ideological and terrorist group capability variables, as well as a variable measuring the security levels in the geographic areas in which terrorist attacks take place. A research design employing multiple ordinary least squares regression is utilized. The findings demonstrate the importance of the independent variables, as well as the significance of the effects of the two-way and three-way interactions of variables from the three categories. Furthermore, the multiple regression models explain a greater percentage of the effects of the independent variables on the percentage of attacks against civilian targets when the three-way interaction variable is included than when this interaction variable is not included. From these findings, two primary policy implications are derived.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006744, ucf:51853
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006744