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Title: STRUCTURAL CAUSES OF SOCIAL CONFLICT IN AFRICA.
Creator: Charland, Lucien, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Social conflict, as opposed to armed conflict, has received less attention in the field of quantitative research. This paper investigates the structural causes of political violence in 35 African states using data from the Social Conflict in Africa dataset and the Beck and Katz panel corrected standard errors time series regression model. Theoretically, a closed political opportunity structure, combined with a weak state unable to provide public goods, should together produce high levels of...
Show moreSocial conflict, as opposed to armed conflict, has received less attention in the field of quantitative research. This paper investigates the structural causes of political violence in 35 African states using data from the Social Conflict in Africa dataset and the Beck and Katz panel corrected standard errors time series regression model. Theoretically, a closed political opportunity structure, combined with a weak state unable to provide public goods, should together produce high levels of social conflict. The independent variables attempt to operationalize these concepts from four different angles. In this analysis Access to Education and Infrastructure (AEI), Ethno Linguistic Fractionalization (ELF), Freedom in the World Political Rights (FIW), and National Material Capabilities (NMC) were all significant predictors of social conflict. This study found that as the level of ethnic fractionalization and material capabilities within states rose, the frequency of social conflict events also increased. However, as access to infrastructure and political rights declined, the number of social conflict events increased. Wald chi-square and R-square values suggest that the model is complete and has substantial explanatory power.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFH0004663, ucf:45314
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004663

Title: THE COLONIAL LEGACIES OF TRADE AGREEMENTS WITH THE EUROPEAN UNION.
Creator: Warshofsky, Mia R, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: As European colonialism was the dominant system of long-distance governance and resource appropriation for centuries, its economic legacies are diverse albeit understated. The existing research looks mainly at the effects of colonialism on a former colony's internal development. This study broadens that scope, looking at which factors are correlated with the presence or absence of a trade agreement with the European Union as well as the number of restrictions to free trade within them. This...
Show moreAs European colonialism was the dominant system of long-distance governance and resource appropriation for centuries, its economic legacies are diverse albeit understated. The existing research looks mainly at the effects of colonialism on a former colony's internal development. This study broadens that scope, looking at which factors are correlated with the presence or absence of a trade agreement with the European Union as well as the number of restrictions to free trade within them. This was carried out through four large-n regressions. The first compared current former- and non-colony trading partners. The second narrowed the scope by comparing only former colonies. The third measured the number of restrictions among all current European Union trade agreements. The fourth measured trade restrictions among former colonies. The results are that various identity, developmental and intuitional variables are correlated with the existence of trade deals and the number of restrictions they contain.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFH2000185, ucf:46014
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000185

Title: PREDATORY WAR: A HISTORY OF VIOLENCE.
Creator: Chapman, John, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis attempts to explain the reasons states choose to prey on other states or territories. A way of testing significance was devised and three variables were produced: Proclivity to violence, winning coalition size, and whether or not a war of conquest took place. The scope for this project was the time period of 1900-1950 and the location was Europe. The European countries were then refined down to a list of 10 states based on power ratings used in the Correlates of War. Then the...
Show moreThis thesis attempts to explain the reasons states choose to prey on other states or territories. A way of testing significance was devised and three variables were produced: Proclivity to violence, winning coalition size, and whether or not a war of conquest took place. The scope for this project was the time period of 1900-1950 and the location was Europe. The European countries were then refined down to a list of 10 states based on power ratings used in the Correlates of War. Then the leaders of each of these states were rated on a scale of 1 - 5 on personal violence, or how inclined they were to act violently. In order to determine this number their biographies were researched and specific traits were used to determine if they were violent individuals. These include military service, criminal history, participation in violent sports, support of military action, participation in a war effort, and any other examples of violent behavior. Second, the winning coalition size of each of these leader's states was determined as an indicator of the amount of domestic support a leader had. This was ascertained by Bruce Bueno de Mesquita's rating system. The third variable, the occurrence of a war of conquest, was determined by finding if there was a war of conquest that took place during the tenure of the individual leaders. The hypothesis is that a leader with a high proclivity to violence and a small winning coalition size will have presided over more wars of conquest than leaders with a low proclivity to violence and a large winning coalition. The three variables were compiled at the individual leader level totaling 151 cases and 10 countries. Then they were tested using the SPSS statistical program using a binary logistic regression. The results showed no significance between the variables. When tested individually however the independent variable of proclivity towards violence showed a p-value of .054, making it nearly significant at the .05 level. This finding illustrates a potentially significant correlation between the individual violence level of a leader and whether or not they initiate or continue a war of conquest.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFH0004509, ucf:45197
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004509

Title: THE VIOLENT OVERTHROW OF PERSONALIST REGIMES COMPARED TO THE PEACEFUL COLLAPSE OF SINGE PARTY REGIMES: CASE STUDIES OF LIBYA UNDER QADDAFI AND THE USSR UNDER GORBACHEV.
Creator: Austin, Victoria, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Personalist regimes tend to be violently overthrown while single party states tend to non-violently collapse from within. This paper analyzes Libya under Qaddafi as a personalist regime, and USSR under Gorbachev as a single party state, and seeks to ascertain through case studies and process tracing the reasons for the violent overthrow of personalist regimes compared to the peaceful collapse of single party regimes. Both regime types create the problems that result in their downfall, and...
Show morePersonalist regimes tend to be violently overthrown while single party states tend to non-violently collapse from within. This paper analyzes Libya under Qaddafi as a personalist regime, and USSR under Gorbachev as a single party state, and seeks to ascertain through case studies and process tracing the reasons for the violent overthrow of personalist regimes compared to the peaceful collapse of single party regimes. Both regime types create the problems that result in their downfall, and both kinds of downfall are accelerated by the public appearance of weakness.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFH0004536, ucf:45198
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004536

Title: COUNTER-TERRORISM: WHEN DO STATES ADOPT NEW ANTI-TERROR LEGISLATION?.
Creator: Clesca, Princelee, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The intent of this thesis is to research the anti-terror legislation of 15 countries and the history of terrorist incidents within those countries. Both the anti-terror legislation and the history of terrorist incidents will be researched within the time period of 1980 to 2009, a 30 year span. This thesis will seek to establish a relationship between the occurrence of terrorist events and when states change their anti-terror legislation. Legislation enacted can vary greatly. Common changes in...
Show moreThe intent of this thesis is to research the anti-terror legislation of 15 countries and the history of terrorist incidents within those countries. Both the anti-terror legislation and the history of terrorist incidents will be researched within the time period of 1980 to 2009, a 30 year span. This thesis will seek to establish a relationship between the occurrence of terrorist events and when states change their anti-terror legislation. Legislation enacted can vary greatly. Common changes in legislation seek to undercut the financing of terrorist organizations, criminalize behaviors, or empower state surveillance capabilities. A quantitative analysis will be performed to establish a relationship between terrorist attacks and legislative changes. A qualitative discussion will follow to analyze specific anti-terror legislation passed by states in response to terrorist events.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFH0004851, ucf:45451
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004851

Title: THE NUCLEAR TABOO: A REAL EFFECT ON PUBLIC PERCEPTION?.
Creator: Kennedy, Cody Marlin, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This research experiment investigated whether the nuclear taboo was more influential on participants when considering the use of nuclear weapons, or if the participants were influenced more by cost-benefit analysis when deciding to use nuclear weapons. In this study, we presented a fake military scenario to respondents with a total of eight different versions that either did or did not include: genocide, high casualties, and nuclear weapons. Participants could then select whether they agreed,...
Show moreThis research experiment investigated whether the nuclear taboo was more influential on participants when considering the use of nuclear weapons, or if the participants were influenced more by cost-benefit analysis when deciding to use nuclear weapons. In this study, we presented a fake military scenario to respondents with a total of eight different versions that either did or did not include: genocide, high casualties, and nuclear weapons. Participants could then select whether they agreed, disagreed, or needed more information as there answer. Breaking respondents down into these three groups, the results show that for all three respondent groups the independent variable with the strongest effect was nuclear weapons. The weakest variable was high casualty rates, while genocide had the second strongest effect on the respondents' decision-making process. These findings indicate that respondents were affected by the nuclear taboo and were less likely to cost-benefit analyze when giving their answer to the military proposal.
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFH2000544, ucf:45690
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000544

Title: Why is Democracy in Decline: Democratic Backsliding in Venezuela and Turkey.
Creator: Bayraktar, Fatih, Ash, Konstantin, Wilson, Bruce, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: It has long been argued that the end of the 20th century marked the triumph of liberal democracy. The third wave of democracy has increased the number of democracies in the world unprecedentedly and gave hope to many that democratic revolution is underway. However, in the last decade, this democratization process seems to have halted; there has been decline both in the number and quality of democracies. This thesis proposes an agent-based theory of democratic backsliding. More specifically,...
Show moreIt has long been argued that the end of the 20th century marked the triumph of liberal democracy. The third wave of democracy has increased the number of democracies in the world unprecedentedly and gave hope to many that democratic revolution is underway. However, in the last decade, this democratization process seems to have halted; there has been decline both in the number and quality of democracies. This thesis proposes an agent-based theory of democratic backsliding. More specifically, it is argued that leaders with undemocratic normative preferences and their ability to mobilize previously persecuted segments of society are the driving factors behind the present-day authoritarian resurgence. While the leader's fight with the oppressors of the marginalized group can bring a short-term of democratization, we argue that the unconditional support given by the marginalized group to the leader can allow the leader to undermine democracy by removing the checks on his power. The paper attempts to investigate similarities in the process of democratic derogation in a comparative case study of Venezuela and Turkey. The study shows that the support given to Erdogan and Chavez by the previously persecuted groups in their respective countries, religious/conservatives in Turkey and poor in Venezuela, allowed both leaders to undermine democracy in a subtle and incremental way.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007155, ucf:52302
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007155

Title: Incumbent Violence and Insurgent Tactics: The Effects of Incumbent Violence on Popular Support for Guerrilla Warfare and Terrorism.
Creator: Williams, Jonathan, Dolan, Thomas, Wilson, Bruce, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Insurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in...
Show moreInsurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in particular by creating outbidding incentives and desires to respond in kind to civilian deaths and as a way of punishing norm violations against attacking civilians on the part of the incumbent. The paper tests this theory with a qualitative case study of the conflict in Northern Ireland during the 1970s and a quantitative analysis of insurgent violence in the Kirkuk, Diyala, Babylon, and Salah al Din provinces during the 2003-2009 Iraq conflict.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004959, ucf:49598
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004959

Title: Regional Organizations and the Durability of Peace.
Creator: Velasco, Juliana, Dolan, Thomas, Mirilovic, Nikola, Young, Kurt, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis investigates the role of regional organizations in peacemaking and peacekeeping, particularly on the effects of peace agreement duration. This is important because the United Nations has been traditionally seen as the default international peacekeeping force but recently, more responsibility is being given to regional organizations.This study hypothesizes that regional organizations' ability to clear commitment problems, create specific agreements, and willingness to enforce...
Show moreThis thesis investigates the role of regional organizations in peacemaking and peacekeeping, particularly on the effects of peace agreement duration. This is important because the United Nations has been traditionally seen as the default international peacekeeping force but recently, more responsibility is being given to regional organizations.This study hypothesizes that regional organizations' ability to clear commitment problems, create specific agreements, and willingness to enforce agreements make them the most effective third parties to deal with many conflicts. However, the study also hypothesizes that regional organizations are less fit to mediate conflicts based around ethnicity, identity, or religious disparities.By utilizing a mixture of logistic regression and case studies, the results illustrate that regional organizations are an essential asset to creating agreements that elongate the duration of peace. In testing for the partiality of regional organizations, the specifics of agreements made, the willingness and capabilities of enforcement, the reason for the conflict and the institutionalization of the organization, quantitative and qualitative results illustrate that regional organizations are a valid tool for conflict management.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004953, ucf:49594
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004953

Title: Turning Away From Your Slavic Brother: The Effects Of Identity On Relations Between Russia And Belarus.
Creator: Matejka, Matt, Morales, Waltraud, Dolan, Thomas, Houghton, David, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: On September 24, 2011, it was announced that Putin would run for president once again in 2012. The reaction in the West was that (")the more things change, the more they stay the same.(") The Western conception of the post-Cold War Russia is often one of remarkable consistency since the turn of the century. This Western narrative focuses on an autocratic Putin reigning over his resurgent and confrontational Russia. Does this narrative tell the story of Russia today, or does it instead obscure...
Show moreOn September 24, 2011, it was announced that Putin would run for president once again in 2012. The reaction in the West was that (")the more things change, the more they stay the same.(") The Western conception of the post-Cold War Russia is often one of remarkable consistency since the turn of the century. This Western narrative focuses on an autocratic Putin reigning over his resurgent and confrontational Russia. Does this narrative tell the story of Russia today, or does it instead obscure it? To answer this I have elected to analyze Russian identity and how it relates to Russia's foreign policy with Belarus, traditionally a close ally of Russia. Analyzing news articles from state-owned Russia Today, I look at changes in reporting and Russian identity over time. I argue that a shift in Russian identity towards a more liberal outlook between 2006 and 2010 motivated a degradation of relations with Belarus. I argue that once the simplified narrative of a resurgent Russia is peeled back, a closer look reveals competing identities and competing interest groups in Russia's domestic arena. Finally I conclude that not only does identity play a pivotal role in Russia's relations, but also that researching identity is important in that it gives us a window into a fairly closed regime that lies at the center of the global stage. Discovering how Russian identity reacts to and influences foreign policy can offer insight into the domestic framework of contemporary Russia, as well as offer us an understanding of how central ideas are to crafting the world around us.
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Date Issued: 2012
Identifier: CFE0004249, ucf:49542
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004249

Title: Governmental Responses to Terrorism: Creating Costs and Benefits.
Creator: Klose, Kenneth, Dolan, Thomas, Schafer, Mark, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unlessresponses reduce an organization's capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of...
Show moreThis thesis assesses four governmental responses to terrorism: conciliation, denial, legal restriction, and violence, each of which may be focused on an organization or its leaders. The theory makes predictions on the resulting frequency and severity of terrorism. Unlessresponses reduce an organization's capacity or desire to attack, the frequency of attacks may be reduced, while the severity continues to increase. The theory is tested using a time series regression analysis of the effects of government action on terrorism in Algeria and thePhilippines. In general, the results show that conciliation may led to increases in terrorism in the short term while suggesting potential reductions in the long term. Denial and legal restriction often led to increases in terrorism, while the effects of violence often depended upon whether the response was applied to organizations or their leaders.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004872, ucf:49670
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004872

Title: The Russian Connection: How Russia Became a Leader in the World's Human Trafficking Market.
Creator: De Mauro, Anthony, Mousseau, Demet, Dolan, Thomas, Boutton, Andrew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis assesses how the history of the USSR and its collapse affected the human trafficking market. By conducting a historical analysis of the Soviet Union, key aspects of Soviet society were determined that allowed for the human trafficking market to establish and operate extremely lucratively; a focus on some of the established factors of human trafficking including corruption, law enforcement, the economy, organized crime, and the dissolution of the Soviet government. While this...
Show moreThis thesis assesses how the history of the USSR and its collapse affected the human trafficking market. By conducting a historical analysis of the Soviet Union, key aspects of Soviet society were determined that allowed for the human trafficking market to establish and operate extremely lucratively; a focus on some of the established factors of human trafficking including corruption, law enforcement, the economy, organized crime, and the dissolution of the Soviet government. While this thesis highlights the historical factors of Russian human trafficking, this thesis does not determine why human trafficking exists beyond the surface exploitation that human trafficking consists of. This thesis also does not explore or explain why Russian human trafficking continues to exist for nearly twenty-five years after the collapse of the Soviet Union. This thesis does conclude that the history of the Soviet Union is almost tailor made for the purposes of human trafficking, with the combination of organized crime, an economy that constantly struggled, a government that was full of corruption and focused on too many endeavors, and a population that faced starvations, a lack of material goods, and political persecution all contributed to Russia having a large supply (population) of victims to be potentially exploited.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006450, ucf:51444
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006450

Title: Rivalry-Prone Dyads? Interstate Religious Differences and Military Conflict.
Creator: Elkhaldi, Manar, Kinsey, Barbara, Handberg, Roger, Dolan, Thomas, Rudkevich, Gennady, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The link between religion and interstate military conflict has attracted a lot of attention among scholars of international relations and also foreign policy makers and religious organizations. This study examines whether religious differences between states in a dyad may partly affect various types of militarized conflict. It is argued in the literature that religion promotes stronger loyalty and sense of obligation than other cultural identities (Juergensmeyer, 1993); I argue that religious...
Show moreThe link between religion and interstate military conflict has attracted a lot of attention among scholars of international relations and also foreign policy makers and religious organizations. This study examines whether religious differences between states in a dyad may partly affect various types of militarized conflict. It is argued in the literature that religion promotes stronger loyalty and sense of obligation than other cultural identities (Juergensmeyer, 1993); I argue that religious identity may be used by states effectively to mobilize people by means of rhetoric to generate and sustain popular support for conflict with other states. Thus I expect that states with different predominant religions to be more likely to engage in various dimensions of rivalry. The objective of this research is to contribute to understanding why certain dyads may be more likely to engage in military conflict. I construct new datasets and develop statistical models to evaluate the connection between religion and interstate military conflict. I focus on the onset of different types of interstate rivalries and war and examine the link of each of these types with different kinds of religious differences. I explore whether (a) interstate dyads with religious difference, (b) Christian/Muslim dyads, and (c) interstate dyads with different religious denominations have a higher propensity to engage in (a) enduring rivalry, (b) rivalry recurrence, and (c) war. This study covers the time period between 1945 and 2001. I conduct the analyses using logit models that incorporate alternative explanations of each of these three dimensions of rivalry. In addition, I provide a case study of the 1947 India-Pakistan war to examine closer the mechanism of the relationship between religious difference in this dyad and war. Analysis results suggest that dyads with (")religious difference(") are associated with rivalry recurrence and war; (")Christian/Muslim Differences(") do not appear to have an effect on rivalry. The findings of this research are expected to offer a better understanding of rivalry between dyads.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFE0006296, ucf:51615
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006296

Title: Determinants of Terrorist Target Selection: A Quantitative Analysis.
Creator: Haywood, Taylor, Handberg, Roger, Dolan, Thomas, Boutton, Andrew, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Existing research on the subject of terrorism is vast, spanning causes of terrorism, the membership of terrorist groups, types of terrorist attacks, and more. One area of terrorism research, though, has received only limited consideration: terrorist target selection. What research does exist explains target selection almost exclusively as a function of ideology (Asal et al. 2009, 270 and 274; Drake 1998b, 54-56 and 58). However, such a limited causal focus obscures other possible, and...
Show moreExisting research on the subject of terrorism is vast, spanning causes of terrorism, the membership of terrorist groups, types of terrorist attacks, and more. One area of terrorism research, though, has received only limited consideration: terrorist target selection. What research does exist explains target selection almost exclusively as a function of ideology (Asal et al. 2009, 270 and 274; Drake 1998b, 54-56 and 58). However, such a limited causal focus obscures other possible, and probable, explanations of terrorist target selection. This paper proposes an alternative explanation of terrorist target selection that includes ideological and terrorist group capability variables, as well as a variable measuring the security levels in the geographic areas in which terrorist attacks take place. A research design employing multiple ordinary least squares regression is utilized. The findings demonstrate the importance of the independent variables, as well as the significance of the effects of the two-way and three-way interactions of variables from the three categories. Furthermore, the multiple regression models explain a greater percentage of the effects of the independent variables on the percentage of attacks against civilian targets when the three-way interaction variable is included than when this interaction variable is not included. From these findings, two primary policy implications are derived.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006744, ucf:51853
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006744

Title: How Much is that War in the Window? An Investigation into the Costs of War.
Creator: Miller, Spencer, Mousseau, Michael, Kinsey, Barbara, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis examines the effects of war on a state's economy. The Liberal Theory of international relations maintains that there are costs to war in terms of trade; in line with this argument, many researchers have suggested that trading partners are less likely to war with each other out of a fear of disrupting their trade, which would in turn disrupt their economies. Due to issues of elasticity and substitution, however, overall trade may not significantly decline during war. Additionally,...
Show moreThis thesis examines the effects of war on a state's economy. The Liberal Theory of international relations maintains that there are costs to war in terms of trade; in line with this argument, many researchers have suggested that trading partners are less likely to war with each other out of a fear of disrupting their trade, which would in turn disrupt their economies. Due to issues of elasticity and substitution, however, overall trade may not significantly decline during war. Additionally, there are known economic costs of war, such as debt. If war truly does have costs, then, it must be more in terms of costs to the national economy, rather than trade. This work examines the theory that war has costs to the economies of war initiators, and samples the economies of war initiators from the mid-nineteenth century to the late twentieth century. This paper uses a time series analysis and tests for anterior, concurrent, and posterior effects of war initiation on national economies, and uses a time period of up to twenty years before and after each war event. The results indicate that there are, in general, no negative effects of war on a state's economy: only one case had a significant negative result, while two had significant positive results; these two positive cases, however, also had strong evidence of autocorrelation. These results pose a challenge to the Liberal Theories of International Relations.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005669, ucf:50198
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005669

Title: Welcome to the Club: IGO Socialization and Dyadic Arms Transfers.
Creator: Dimino, Joseph, Dolan, Thomas, Kinsey, Barbara, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis examines whether intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can socialize member states by testing the effect of shared IGO memberships on dyadic arms transfers. IGO socialization is one of many proposed causal mechanisms by which IGO memberships might reduce interstate conflict. This thesis argues that the institutional socialization hypothesis (ISH), which asserts that shared IGO memberships will lead to interest convergence between member states, uses an invalid conceptualization...
Show moreThis thesis examines whether intergovernmental organizations (IGOs) can socialize member states by testing the effect of shared IGO memberships on dyadic arms transfers. IGO socialization is one of many proposed causal mechanisms by which IGO memberships might reduce interstate conflict. This thesis argues that the institutional socialization hypothesis (ISH), which asserts that shared IGO memberships will lead to interest convergence between member states, uses an invalid conceptualization and measurement of socialization. Instead, socialization is re-conceptualized as increased trust between member states, and re-operationalized using dyadic arms transfers as a proxy for trust. The study uses linear regression with cross-sectional panel data from the years 1960 to 1965 to test if the number of shared IGO memberships a dyad has five years prior leads to an increase in the number of arms transfers in a given dyad-year. The results are suggestive of a positive relationship between the number of shared IGO memberships and dyadic arms transfers, but are not conclusive at a 0.05 level of significance.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFE0005605, ucf:50236
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005605

Title: Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code.
Creator: George, William, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Does the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used...
Show moreDoes the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used ordered logistic regression across three models to determine the effect of the operational code on state crisis behavior while controlling for key domestic and crisis dimension variables. Predicted probabilities were also used to better demonstrate the variables' substantive effects. The 50 cases used in this research are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Dataset composed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld, and they focus on the United States as the major crisis actor. Operational code data were derived from computer-based content analysis using the Verbs In Context System (Walker, Schafer, and Young 1998). The theoretical goal of this paper was to explain variance in state crisis behavior through variations in the operational codes of US Presidents. The results demonstrate that the operational codes of leaders do affect state crisis behavior. Specifically, the operational code indices P1 and I1 show that a leader with a more conflictual view of the nature of the political universe and a conflictual direction of strategy is more likely to employ escalatory crisis behavior.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005336, ucf:50528
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005336

Title: Uncovering The Sub-Text: Presidents' Emotional Expressions and Major Uses of Force.
Creator: Assaf, Elias, Houghton, David, Kim, Myunghee, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public...
Show moreThe global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public perception of the use of force. This thesis therefore measures expressed emotion and cognitive expressions in the form of expressed aggression, passivity, blame, praise, certainty, realism, and optimism as a means of predicting subsequent major uses of force. Since aggression and blame are precipitated by anger and perceived vulnerability, they are theorized to foreshadow increased uses of force (Gardner and Moore 2008). Conversely, passivity and praise are indicative of empathy and joy respectively, and are not expected to precede aggressive behavior conducted to maintain emotional regulation (Roberton, Daffer, and Bucks 2012). Additionally, the three cognitive variables of interest expand on existing literature on beliefs and decision making expounded by such authors as Walker (2010), Winter (2003) and Hermann (2003). DICTION 6.0 is used to analyze all text data of presidential news conferences, candidate debates, and State of the Union speeches given between 1945 and 2000 stored by The American Presidency Project (Hart and Carroll 2012). Howell and Pevehouse's (2005) quantitative assessment of quarterly U.S. uses of force between 1945 and 2000 is employed as a means of quantifying instances of major uses of force. Results show systematic differences among the traits expressed by presidents, with most expressions staying consistent across spontaneous speech contexts. Additionally, State of the Union speeches consistently yielded the highest scores across the expressed traits measured; supporting the theory that prepared speech is used to emotionally frame situations and setup emotional interpretations of events to present to the public. Time sensitive regression analyses indicate that expressed aggression within the context of State of the Union Addresses is the only significant predictor of major uses of force by the administration. That being said, other studies may use the comparative findings presented herein to further establish a robust model of personality that accounts for individual dispositions toward emotional expression as a means of framing the emotional interpretation of events by audiences.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005300, ucf:50513
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005300

Title: Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes.
Creator: Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Pollock, Philip, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait...
Show moreDoes a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005418, ucf:50423
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005418

Title: The Effects of State Leader Psychology on Civil War Lethality.
Creator: Kelley, Brandon, Vasquez, Joseph, Dolan, Thomas, Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Does a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits...
Show moreDoes a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits and operational code indices, specifically direction of strategy (I1) and interpretation of the nature of the political universe (P1). The data and cases used are pulled from datasets by Dr. James Fearon and the Correlates of War Project. The leaders' speech content is derived primarily from prepared material and analyzed using verbal content analysis via Profiler Plus. In measuring the effects of the predictors on my dependent variable, I chose the methodological approach of count data models, specifically, zero-truncated negative binomial regression. The results from the eight models I ran show that specific psychological traits, particularly a leader's I1 and P1 scores, level of distrust, and need for power, do play a significant role when determining the causes of civil war lethality.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005358, ucf:50469
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005358

civil war (3)	+ -
insurgency (3)	+ -
operational code (3)	+ -
terrorism (3)	+ -
Africa (2)	+ -

USSR (2)	+ -
affect (2)	+ -
civilian victimization (2)	+ -
conflict (2)	+ -
decision making (2)	+ -
emotion (2)	+ -
foreign policy (2)	+ -
leadership traits (2)	+ -
political psychology (2)	+ -
political violence (2)	+ -
war (2)	+ -
15 countries (1)	+ -
30 years (1)	+ -
Afghanistan (1)	+ -
American (1)	+ -
Belarus (1)	+ -
Civil Conflict (1)	+ -
Comparative Case Study (1)	+ -
Comparative Politics (1)	+ -
Counter-terrorism (1)	+ -
Cultural Constructs (1)	+ -
DICTION (1)	+ -
Democracy (1)	+ -
Democratic Backsliding (1)	+ -
Development (1)	+ -

ETD Collection (24)	+ -
Honors Collection (6)	+ -

Dolan, Thomas (30)	+ -
University of Central Florida (30)	+ -
Handberg, Roger (6)	+ -
Kinsey, Barbara (6)	+ -
Houghton, David (4)	+ -

Mirilovic, Nikola (4)	+ -
Schafer, Mark (4)	+ -
Vasquez, Joseph (4)	+ -
Morales, Waltraud (3)	+ -
Powell, Jonathan (3)	+ -
Boutton, Andrew (2)	+ -
Kang, Kyungkook (2)	+ -
Tezcur, Gunes Murat (2)	+ -
Wilson, Bruce (2)	+ -
Ash, Konstantin (1)	+ -
Assaf, Elias (1)	+ -
Austin, Victoria (1)	+ -
Barnard, Margaret (1)	+ -
Bayraktar, Fatih (1)	+ -
Besaw, Clayton (1)	+ -
Chapman, John (1)	+ -
Charland, Lucien (1)	+ -
Clesca, Princelee (1)	+ -
De Mauro, Anthony (1)	+ -
Dimino, Joseph (1)	+ -
Elkhaldi, Manar (1)	+ -
Faulkner, Christopher (1)	+ -
Gannon, Barbara (1)	+ -
George, William (1)	+ -
Hamann, Kerstin (1)	+ -

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