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A System Dynamics Approach on Sustainability Assessment of the United States Urban Commuter Transportation
Title
A System Dynamics Approach on Sustainability Assessment of the United States Urban Commuter Transportation.
Creator
Ercan, Tolga, Tatari, Omer, Oloufa, Amr, Eluru, Naveen, Xanthopoulos, Petros, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Transportation sector is one of the largest emission sources and is a cause for human health concern due to the high dependency on personal vehicle in the U.S. Transportation mode choice studies are currently limited to micro- and regional-level boundaries, lacking of presenting a complete picture of the issues, and the root causes associated with urban passenger transportation choices in the U.S. Hence, system dynamics modeling approach is utilized to capture complex causal relationships...
Show moreTransportation sector is one of the largest emission sources and is a cause for human health concern due to the high dependency on personal vehicle in the U.S. Transportation mode choice studies are currently limited to micro- and regional-level boundaries, lacking of presenting a complete picture of the issues, and the root causes associated with urban passenger transportation choices in the U.S. Hence, system dynamics modeling approach is utilized to capture complex causal relationships among the critical system parameters affecting alternative transportation mode choices in the U.S. as well as to identify possible policy areas to improve alternative transportation mode choice rates for future years up to 2050. Considering the high degree of uncertainties inherent to the problem, multivariate sensitivity analysis is utilized to explore the effectiveness of existing and possible policy implications in dynamic model in the terms of their potential to increase transit ridership and locating critical parameters that influences the most on mode choice and emission rates. Finally, the dissertation advances the current body of knowledge by integrating discrete event simulation (multinomial fractional split model) and system dynamics for hybrid urban commuter transportation simulation to test new scenarios such as autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption along with traditional policy scenarios such as limiting lane-mile increase on roadways and introducing carbon tax policy on vehicle owners. Overall, the developed simulation models clearly indicate the importance of urban structures to secure the future of alternative transportation modes in the U.S. as the prevailing policy practices fail to change system behavior. Thus, transportation system needs a paradigm shift to radically change current impacts and the market penetration of AVs can be one of the reforms to provoke this transition since it is expected to revolutionize mode choice, emission trends, and the built environment.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFE0007626, ucf:52554
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007626
Sustainability Analysis of Intelligent Transportation Systems
Title
Sustainability Analysis of Intelligent Transportation Systems.
Creator
Ercan, Tolga, Tatari, Mehmet, Al-Deek, Haitham, Oloufa, Amr, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Commuters in urban areas suffer from traffic congestion on a daily basis. The increasing number of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are exacerbating this congested roadway problem for society. Although literature contains numerous studies that strive to propose solutions to this congestion problem, the problem is still prevalent today. Traffic congestion problem affects society's quality of life socially, economically, and environmentally. In order to alleviate the unsustainable...
Show moreCommuters in urban areas suffer from traffic congestion on a daily basis. The increasing number of vehicles and vehicle miles traveled (VMT) are exacerbating this congested roadway problem for society. Although literature contains numerous studies that strive to propose solutions to this congestion problem, the problem is still prevalent today. Traffic congestion problem affects society's quality of life socially, economically, and environmentally. In order to alleviate the unsustainable impacts of the congested roadway problem, Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) has been utilized to improve sustainable transportation systems in the world. The purpose of this thesis is to analyze the sustainable impacts and performance of the utilization of ITS in the United States. This thesis advances the body of knowledge of sustainability impacts of ITS related congestion relief through a triple bottom line (TBL) evaluation in the United States. TBL impacts analyze from a holistic perspective, rather than considering only the direct economic benefits. A critical approach to this research was to include both the direct and the indirect environmental and socio-economic impacts associated with the chain of supply paths of traffic congestion relief. To accomplish this aim, net benefits of ITS implementations are analyzed in 101 cities in the United States. In addition to the state level results, seven metropolitan cities in Florida are investigated in detail among these 101 cities. For instance, the results of this study indicated that Florida saved 1.38 E+05 tons of greenhouse gas emissions (tons of carbon dioxide equivalent), $420 million of annual delay reduction costs, and $17.2 million of net fuel-based costs. Furthermore, to quantify the relative impact and sustainability performance of different ITS technologies, several ITS solutions are analyzed in terms of total costs (initial and operation (&) maintenance costs) and benefits (value of time, emissions, and safety). To account for the uncertainty in benefit and cost analyses, a fuzzy-data envelopment analysis (DEA) methodology is utilized instead of the traditional DEA approach for sustainability performance analysis. The results using the fuzzy-DEA approach indicate that some of the ITS investments are not efficient compared to other investments where as all of them are highly effective investments in terms of the cost/benefit ratios approach. The TBL results of this study provide more comprehensive picture of socio-economic benefits which include the negative and indirect indicators and environmental benefits for ITS related congestion relief. In addition, sustainability performance comparisons and TBL analysis of ITS investments contained encouraging results to support decision makers to pursue ITS projects in the future.
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Date Issued
2013
Identifier
CFE0004994, ucf:49549
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004994