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Deadly Premonition: Does Terrorist-Leader Psychology Influence Violence Lethality?
Title
Deadly Premonition: Does Terrorist-Leader Psychology Influence Violence Lethality?.
Creator
Besaw, Clayton, Schafer, Mark, Jacques, Peter, Mousseau, Michael, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis seeks to address a theoretical and empirical gap within terrorism studies, and more specially the study of terrorist-group lethality. This research updates a model of terrorist-group lethality by including terrorist-leader psychology as an individual-level variable in predicting terrorist-group lethality. Terrorist-leader statements were analyzed by using two novel coding schemes called Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis to create quantified measurements of leader...
Show moreThis thesis seeks to address a theoretical and empirical gap within terrorism studies, and more specially the study of terrorist-group lethality. This research updates a model of terrorist-group lethality by including terrorist-leader psychology as an individual-level variable in predicting terrorist-group lethality. Terrorist-leader statements were analyzed by using two novel coding schemes called Operational Code and Leadership Trait Analysis to create quantified measurements of leader cognitive beliefs and personality traits. The empirical portion of this study utilizes pooled cross-sectional time-series data within the framework of fixed effects and multi-level estimation models. The results find that terrorist-leader psychology, and more specifically Instrumental (Strategic) Beliefs and Distrust, are significant predictors of subsequent group-lethality.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005132, ucf:50679
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005132
How Much is that War in the Window? An Investigation into the Costs of War
Title
How Much is that War in the Window? An Investigation into the Costs of War.
Creator
Miller, Spencer, Mousseau, Michael, Kinsey, Barbara, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis examines the effects of war on a state's economy. The Liberal Theory of international relations maintains that there are costs to war in terms of trade; in line with this argument, many researchers have suggested that trading partners are less likely to war with each other out of a fear of disrupting their trade, which would in turn disrupt their economies. Due to issues of elasticity and substitution, however, overall trade may not significantly decline during war. Additionally,...
Show moreThis thesis examines the effects of war on a state's economy. The Liberal Theory of international relations maintains that there are costs to war in terms of trade; in line with this argument, many researchers have suggested that trading partners are less likely to war with each other out of a fear of disrupting their trade, which would in turn disrupt their economies. Due to issues of elasticity and substitution, however, overall trade may not significantly decline during war. Additionally, there are known economic costs of war, such as debt. If war truly does have costs, then, it must be more in terms of costs to the national economy, rather than trade. This work examines the theory that war has costs to the economies of war initiators, and samples the economies of war initiators from the mid-nineteenth century to the late twentieth century. This paper uses a time series analysis and tests for anterior, concurrent, and posterior effects of war initiation on national economies, and uses a time period of up to twenty years before and after each war event. The results indicate that there are, in general, no negative effects of war on a state's economy: only one case had a significant negative result, while two had significant positive results; these two positive cases, however, also had strong evidence of autocorrelation. These results pose a challenge to the Liberal Theories of International Relations.
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Date Issued
2015
Identifier
CFE0005669, ucf:50198
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005669
Reconciling Ex Ante Expectations with the Ex Post Reality: A Look at the Effectiveness of Third-Party Diplomatic Interventions in Civil Wars
Title
Reconciling Ex Ante Expectations with the Ex Post Reality: A Look at the Effectiveness of Third-Party Diplomatic Interventions in Civil Wars.
Creator
Benchimol, Matthew, Handberg, Roger, Kinsey, Barbara, Mousseau, Michael, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Research has begun to focus on the role third-party diplomatic intervention plays in the length of civil conflicts. Diplomatic interventions by a third-party actor are assumed to help resolve or alleviate violence over time. Is this really the case? Hypotheses relating to these aspects of civil wars are proposed to test this long-standing assumption. This thesis uses statistical analysis to observe the relationship between diplomatic interventions and civil war duration and then observe the...
Show moreResearch has begun to focus on the role third-party diplomatic intervention plays in the length of civil conflicts. Diplomatic interventions by a third-party actor are assumed to help resolve or alleviate violence over time. Is this really the case? Hypotheses relating to these aspects of civil wars are proposed to test this long-standing assumption. This thesis uses statistical analysis to observe the relationship between diplomatic interventions and civil war duration and then observe the relationship between duration and civil war violence. The data incorporates approximately 150 civil wars from 1945 to 1999, 101 of which had outside interventions. This thesis finds that, contrary to ex ante expectations, diplomatic interventions are a significant contributing factor to civil war length. Furthermore, longer civil wars are not associated with more civil war intensity in the aggregate, suggesting that longer civil wars do not mean more violent or intense ones.
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Date Issued
2015
Identifier
CFE0005578, ucf:50253
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005578
Ideas, Beliefs, Strategic Culture, and Foreign Policy: Understanding Brazil's Geopolitical Thought
Title
Ideas, Beliefs, Strategic Culture, and Foreign Policy: Understanding Brazil's Geopolitical Thought.
Creator
Rosas Degaut Pontes, Marcos, Handberg, Roger, Mousseau, Michael, Mirilovic, Nikola, Dantas, George Felipe De Lima, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Brazil is an important player both at regional and global levels, figuring prominently in almost all lists of emerging states and regional powers. It is one of the world's largest democracies, the fifth most populous country in the world, the world's seventh-largest economy, and Latin America's largest economy, accounting for approximately 60% of South America's GDP, 47% of South America's territory and 49% of South American population, a G20 member, and an active contributor to United...
Show moreBrazil is an important player both at regional and global levels, figuring prominently in almost all lists of emerging states and regional powers. It is one of the world's largest democracies, the fifth most populous country in the world, the world's seventh-largest economy, and Latin America's largest economy, accounting for approximately 60% of South America's GDP, 47% of South America's territory and 49% of South American population, a G20 member, and an active contributor to United Nations peacekeeping operations. However, despite being usually depicted as a "monster country" which would help shape global affairs, Brazil has never been able to match its geographic, territorial and demographic assets with global geostrategic clout, and military, political, and economic power. This research seeks to explain how a rising power such as Brazil has historically behaved, reacted and constructed a discourse that, at the same time, constrains/motivates its decisions, explains its actions, and legitimizes its behavior. More specifically, the puzzle to be solved is why Brazilian regional policies are not more assertive given Brazil's capabilities? In order to answer this puzzle, this research will seek to analyze how a strategic culture influences a country's geopolitical thought, and consequently its policy choices and outcomes; to identify and qualify the elements of Brazilian strategic culture and its nature, as well as determine the relationship between these elements and Brazilian foreign and security policy decisions; to analyze the influence of Brazilian strategic culture features upon the country's geopolitical thought and grand strategy, and Brazil's geopolitics to South America; and finally to discuss the question of the dynamics of strategic cultural change in Brazil and its implications for the country's security and foreign policy decision-making process, as well as for its regional neighborhood.
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Date Issued
2016
Identifier
CFE0006382, ucf:51521
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006382