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Title: CONFLICT RECURRENCE IN RWANDA AND BURUNDI.
Creator: Ritter, Kellan H, Powell, Jonathan, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis argues that the different reactions of the population and rival elites to executive attempts to extend term limits in Rwanda and Burundi reflect the different ways civil wars ended in these two countries. In Rwanda, a military victory resulted in institutions that placed less constraint on the ruling party, while in Burundi, a negotiated settlement placed comparatively greater constraints on the ruling party. As a result, the major party in Rwanda was more powerful than the major...
Show moreThis thesis argues that the different reactions of the population and rival elites to executive attempts to extend term limits in Rwanda and Burundi reflect the different ways civil wars ended in these two countries. In Rwanda, a military victory resulted in institutions that placed less constraint on the ruling party, while in Burundi, a negotiated settlement placed comparatively greater constraints on the ruling party. As a result, the major party in Rwanda was more powerful than the major power in Burundi, and thus more capable to co-opt or coerce the opposition. This paper uses a most-similar case design to test the hypothesis that civil wars that end in negotiated settlements are more likely to become unstable than a civil war that ends in a military victory when executives attempt to extend their term limits and finds that the civil war outcome was instrumental in explaining the divergent reactions in both countries. This paper has important implications for those interested in post-conflict situations and executive term-limit extensions.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFH2000247, ucf:46051
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000247

Title: Leader Psychology and Civil War Behavior.
Creator: Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Kang, Kyungkook, Powell, Jonathan, Walker, Stephen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: How do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their...
Show moreHow do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their psychological characteristics can affect the likelihood, severity, and duration of civil conflicts. The findings of this research provide further support for the general hypothesis that leaders can, and often do, matter when trying to explain policy outcomes. More importantly, the findings demonstrate that leaders can influence the likelihood of civil war onset, the severity of civil wars, and their duration. Additionally, this project investigates the effect that civil war severity has on the psychological characteristics of leaders. Contrary to some previous research, however, the findings here indicate that leaders' psychology may not be sensitive to civil conflict severity.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007375, ucf:52089
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007375

Title: The African Puzzle: A Study of Democratic Backsliding in Sub Saharan Africa.
Creator: Rice, Ailbhe, Powell, Jonathan, Boutton, Andrew, Bledsoe, Robert, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The following study examines the future of democratization and the apparent trend towards autocratization within the context of democratic backsliding in Sub-Saharan Africa. Initially, the findings indicate that regionally, backsliding is not acting fundamentally different in Sub-Saharan Africa when compared to other regions. The analysis finds that regime duration and civil conflict are both significant when it comes to the study of democratic backsliding. The variable for the prior military...
Show moreThe following study examines the future of democratization and the apparent trend towards autocratization within the context of democratic backsliding in Sub-Saharan Africa. Initially, the findings indicate that regionally, backsliding is not acting fundamentally different in Sub-Saharan Africa when compared to other regions. The analysis finds that regime duration and civil conflict are both significant when it comes to the study of democratic backsliding. The variable for the prior military regime's is extremely significant in all of the models and is, therefore, a strong indicator of backsliding in Africa. The chief takeaway from the study is in the variable for economic growth and finds that as economic growth increases the likelihood of backsliding decreases. This variable is negative and significant for all of the models, but if Africa is taken out of the analysis the trend ultimately disappears, which indicates that Africa is potentially driving this trend of economic growth and backsliding.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007360, ucf:52080
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007360

Title: SOCIAL MEDIA AND TERRORIST ORGANIZATIONS: OBSERVING SUCCESS OF RECRUITMENT THROUGH SOCIAL MEDIA.
Creator: Cibra, Vincenzo, Powell, Jonathan, Farcau, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The Internet is an instrument that has revolutionized the world and the society since its introduction. Today, over 4 billion people around the world have access to it. While this technology comes with several positive innovations, it can also be used negatively by terrorist organizations to more efficiently spread propaganda messages. More so, the development of social media has fostered new methods of recruitment that allows to reach a broader audience anonymously and outside of the...
Show moreThe Internet is an instrument that has revolutionized the world and the society since its introduction. Today, over 4 billion people around the world have access to it. While this technology comes with several positive innovations, it can also be used negatively by terrorist organizations to more efficiently spread propaganda messages. More so, the development of social media has fostered new methods of recruitment that allows to reach a broader audience anonymously and outside of the geographical area of operation of a terrorist organization. The purpose of this research is to analyze the relationship between social media development and changes in terrorist recruitment strategies, discuss the main social media used for terrorist recruitment, and identify major targeted demographics. Further, the research seeks to analyze through case study examination whether the use of social media by terrorist organizations result in more effective recruitment. This is accomplished by comparing recruiting success of ISIS, which heavily relies on social media, with Boko Haram, which does not. After comparing data available on recruits based on their geographical location, gender and age, and economic status, this study finds that there is not a significant diversity between individuals recruited through social media or those recruited through a different method. This study finds that a significant difference only exists when recruiting individuals with different economic opportunities. While fighters from ISIS are recruited from any class of the society, including those with higher income and are more educated, Boko Haram tends to be more successful among individuals who experience economic hurdles.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFH2000288, ucf:52904
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000288

Title: More Guns, Less Butter, and Officers at the Table: Understanding the Nexus between the Military's Integration into Politics and Resource Allocation in Democracies and Non-Democracies.
Creator: Ben Hammou, Salah, Powell, Jonathan, Boutton, Andrew, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The civilianization of government is often seen as a necessary prerequisite for successful democratization and healthy civil-military relations. This thesis explores the impact of integrating the military into political decision-making on the distribution of (")guns(") and (")butter(") (-) military spending and social spending - across dictatorships and democracies. Whereas a general consensus suggests that autocracies allocate greater goods to the military and fewer goods to the general...
Show moreThe civilianization of government is often seen as a necessary prerequisite for successful democratization and healthy civil-military relations. This thesis explores the impact of integrating the military into political decision-making on the distribution of (")guns(") and (")butter(") (-) military spending and social spending - across dictatorships and democracies. Whereas a general consensus suggests that autocracies allocate greater goods to the military and fewer goods to the general public relative to democracies, an understudied variable is the military's integration into politics in both democracies and autocracies. Given that military elites have greater incentives relative to civilian elites to prioritize military spending over social spending, I expect that integrating officers into politics should yield greater military outlays and fewer social outlays relative to more civilianized regimes, democratic or otherwise.Drawing on a number of theories concerning contentious civil-military relations, I frame this process of integration and its subsequent consequence as part of a broader means to ameliorate commitment issues between leaders and the armed forces. Specifically, I view power-sharing with military elites as a potential tool democrats and dictators may use to ensure the loyalty of the armed forces and mitigate the threat of defection or a coup d'etat. I test my arguments using data on the proportion of national cabinet positions held by military officers across 138 countries between 1964-2008. Offering some support for my expectations, this thesis highlights the necessity of fine-tuned data to explore civil-military processes and reasserts that the military may influence politics across multiple regime settings and outside of overtly ruling the country..
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFE0007784, ucf:52367
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007784

Title: Youth Labor Market Conditions and the NEET Population in the EU: Do Poor Labor Market Opportunities Discourage Youth?.
Creator: Hudson, Jennifer, Hamann, Kerstin, Kinsey, Barbara, Powell, Jonathan, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This study examines how poor labor market opportunities discourage youth between the ages of 15 and 24 and 15 to 29 from participating in the labor market in the European Union between 2005 and 2013. A critical portion of inactive NEETs (youth not in employment, education, or training) reports to be discouraged due to a recognized (")lack of opportunities in the labor market.(") Despite indications from descriptive analyses that the conditions that drive the distinct subsets of the NEET...
Show moreThis study examines how poor labor market opportunities discourage youth between the ages of 15 and 24 and 15 to 29 from participating in the labor market in the European Union between 2005 and 2013. A critical portion of inactive NEETs (youth not in employment, education, or training) reports to be discouraged due to a recognized (")lack of opportunities in the labor market.(") Despite indications from descriptive analyses that the conditions that drive the distinct subsets of the NEET population vary, empirical examinations of the effects of these conditions on the rates of different NEET groups across countries and over time are lacking. The policies prescribed for the NEET group as a whole tend to ignore the special needs of discouraged, inactive NEETs. Beyond the fundamental problem of engaging these individuals in the labor market, neglecting this group has a variety of implications, ranging from social exclusion, to poverty, and even radicalism. A central goal of this project is to determine what a recognized (")lack of opportunities(") means. What is known concretely is that fellow youth are increasingly vulnerable to a range of labor market outcomes and conditions beyond unemployment, including difficulty transitioning into the labor market (school-to-work transitions), in-work poverty risk, non-standard employment opportunities (involuntary and voluntary), limited ability to transition into secure employment (i.e. upward mobility), lower wage levels, atypical employment, limited job security and support, and long-term unemployment. Utilizing aggregated survey data from the EU Labor Force Survey and EU Survey on Income and Living Conditions, I examine how a range of labor market outcomes and conditions for youth, representative of the poor labor market opportunities, affect the frequency of discouraged NEETs across 24 EU countries between 2005 and 2013. Findings suggest that the incidence of involuntary non-standard work, in-work poverty risk, and atypical employment among fellow youth and the incidence of decreased work security among the adult working age population are associated with an increase in discouraged, inactive NEETs. This suggests that engaging this hard to reach subgroup of the NEET population requires a greater emphasis on creating improved labor market opportunities.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFE0006605, ucf:51292
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006605

Title: A Theory of Cultural Tolerance: Evidence from Former Soviet States.
Creator: Boulibekova, Ajara, Ash, Konstantin, Powell, Jonathan, Hamann, Kerstin, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The prevention of ethnic conflict has been examined and debated upon within the Political Science community; studies involving economic standing, government structure, and historical background have been credited with reducing or preventing ethnic conflict. In the years leading up to the demise of the Soviet Union ethnic conflict was felt heavily throughout the Socialist Republics. After the fall of the U.S.S.R. scholars were certain that ethnic conflict would arise in Kazakhstan but alas it...
Show moreThe prevention of ethnic conflict has been examined and debated upon within the Political Science community; studies involving economic standing, government structure, and historical background have been credited with reducing or preventing ethnic conflict. In the years leading up to the demise of the Soviet Union ethnic conflict was felt heavily throughout the Socialist Republics. After the fall of the U.S.S.R. scholars were certain that ethnic conflict would arise in Kazakhstan but alas it did not, while other post-Soviet states, such as Moldova and Russia, had experienced ethnic conflict. What prevents ethnic conflict from occurring in one state but not the other? This thesis proposes that state efforts to promote cultural tolerance reduce the likelihood of ethnic conflict occurrence. State efforts to promote cultural tolerance include: language recognition, parliamentary reserved seats, constitutional protection, and inclusive citizenship laws. This theory is tested via a large-N regression time series cross sectional model including all of the former Soviet states, examining state-minority group dyads. Relevant factors such as oil, and group level economic inequality are also controlled for. The results reveal that inclusive citizenship laws have a positive significant effect on ethnic conflict, while language recognition seems to have a negative significant effect on ethnic conflict.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0006978, ucf:51657
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006978

Title: The Conditionality of Vulnerability: Three Analyses of Risk and Opportunity in Civil Military Relations.
Creator: Schiel, Rebecca, Powell, Jonathan, Kinsey, Barbara, Dolan, Thomas, Thyne, Clayton, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Prior research has not established a clear relationship between democracy and insulation from coups d'(&)#233;tat. I contend that the lack of attention paid to the conditional influences of democracy have resulted in these mixed findings. I posit that insulation from coups occurs at higher levels of economic development and judicial institutional strength in democracies. Further, the vulnerability at low levels of both economic development and judicial institutional strength is significantly...
Show morePrior research has not established a clear relationship between democracy and insulation from coups d'(&)#233;tat. I contend that the lack of attention paid to the conditional influences of democracy have resulted in these mixed findings. I posit that insulation from coups occurs at higher levels of economic development and judicial institutional strength in democracies. Further, the vulnerability at low levels of both economic development and judicial institutional strength is significantly greater in democracies than in autocracies. Empirical assessments of 165 states for the years 1950-2012 offer strong support for both arguments. Results from these studies first help to reconcile earlier research on coup risk in democracies. Second, I point to the conditionality of democratic coup risk by highlighting the roles of economic development and political institutions. Third, I underscore the vast differences in institutional arrangements within democracies, suggesting a more nuanced approach is needed in the study of democratic political institutions. In line with this research, I examine the propensity for democratization in the aftermath of irregular leader removal. Examining the actors and tactics associated with different removal types, I focus on the benefits and challenges posed to democratization in the aftermath of removals. In an empirical assessment of authoritarian states from 1950-2012, I find that only removals resulting from coups, in conjunction with economic development, have significantly higher rates of democratization compared with the null. The results of this study are twofold, finding that not all forms of irregular leadership removal result in similar rates of post-removal democratization and that coups have driven prior results finding an association between irregular leader removal, economic development, and democratization.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007365, ucf:52087
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007365

Title: Superforecasting or SNAFU: The Forecasting Ability of the US Military Officer.
Creator: Raugh, David, Handberg, Roger, Dolan, Thomas, Powell, Jonathan, Gannon, Barbara, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: What is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield,...
Show moreWhat is the impact of military institutional tendencies and habits on U.S. Army senior officer forecasting accuracy and how does this forecasting ability shape success in battle? Military leaders plan operations based on the forecasted strengths and vulnerabilities of their adversary. Negative habits, such as limited option development, confirmation bias, doctrinal overreliance, and over-consideration of sunk costs, inhibit effective forecasting. The tempo of the modern battlefield, hierarchical culture, and institutional tendencies of the US Army may promote and reinforce these habits. I surveyed Colonels in US Army War College programs to measure their individual tendencies, levels of education, and accuracy in forecasting events during a three to twelve-month future. Quantitative analysis of the resulting data shows that these habits are present and negatively affect forecasting ability; additionally, higher levels of education positively affect forecast accuracy, possibly counteracting the effects of negative institutional tendencies and habits. Extending the research using historical and contemporary case studies of senior US Army Generals, including interviews of General David Petraeus and other high-ranking officials, I find that rejection of these institutional habits and tendencies enabled superior forecasting, leading to battlefield success. I conclude by examining how educational levels of commanding generals in the Iraq War affected military success. Exploratory quantitative analysis of data collected from the US Army historical archives shows that higher levels of education positively affected significant activities within the general's assigned areas.
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFE0007519, ucf:52609
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007519

Title: The Causes, Dynamics, and Implications of Child Soldiering.
Creator: Faulkner, Christopher, Tezcur, Gunes Murat, Powell, Jonathan, Dolan, Thomas, Whitaker, Beth, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Child soldiers continue to be regular participants in modern conflicts in many different parts of the world. This dissertation addresses several interrelated questions about child soldiering employing large-N statistical analyses, process-tracing, and in-depth interviews. First, it asks how foreign state support and the characteristics of these donors influence rebels' recruitment of child soldiers. An important finding is that rebels supported by democratic states are less likely to employ...
Show moreChild soldiers continue to be regular participants in modern conflicts in many different parts of the world. This dissertation addresses several interrelated questions about child soldiering employing large-N statistical analyses, process-tracing, and in-depth interviews. First, it asks how foreign state support and the characteristics of these donors influence rebels' recruitment of child soldiers. An important finding is that rebels supported by democratic states are less likely to employ child soldiers. It then investigates the factors and conditions that lead some groups to diversify their demographics in the types of recruits and others to not. Specifically, it considers why a rebel group would recruit children, but refrain from recruiting women. It examines theoretical arguments that contend group ideology, desires for patriarchal preservation, societal gender inequalities, and the location/type of rebellion (rural vs. urban) can each significantly contribute to groups' recruitment behavior. Third, it considers a question that speaks directly to the first two questions. What factors lead to the initial recruitment of children and how conflict conditions may impact the dynamics of rebel recruitment over time? An in-depth analysis of the Kurdistan Worker's Party (PKK) and the employment of a unique dataset on deceased Kurdish militants allows for an exploration of the temporal variation in the group's recruitment patterns over four decades. It illustrates that inter-rebel rivalries, conflict intensity, and the evolution of human rights norms shape rebels' recruitment behavior. The final section reorients the focus of the dissertation from rebel child soldiering to government child soldiering. It surveys the conditions under which the United States holds foreign governments accountable for their child soldiering practices through the restriction of certain forms of security assistance. In depth analyses of four norm-violating states and interviews with policy experts show that the strategic importance of a state and the systemic nature of child recruitment are strong predictors of when security assistance waivers will be granted. Together, this dissertation advances scholarly understanding of the causes, dynamics, and implications of child soldiering.
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFE0007629, ucf:52541
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007629

Conflict (3)	+ -
Civil Conflict (2)	+ -
Democracy (2)	+ -
Democratization (2)	+ -
Africa (1)	+ -

Boko Haram. (1)	+ -
Burundi (1)	+ -
Civil War (1)	+ -
Civil-Military Relations (1)	+ -
Comparative Politics (1)	+ -
Coups (1)	+ -
Cultural Tolerance (1)	+ -
Defense Spending (1)	+ -
Democracy Duration. (1)	+ -
Democratic Backsliding (1)	+ -
Democratic Consolidation (1)	+ -
Dictatorships (1)	+ -
EU (1)	+ -
Economic Growth (1)	+ -
Education (1)	+ -
Ethnic Conflict (1)	+ -
Ethnic Diversity (1)	+ -
Ethnic Fractionalization (1)	+ -
GDP per capita (1)	+ -
Guns versus Butter (1)	+ -
ISIS (1)	+ -
Leadership Trait Analysis (1)	+ -
Military Dictatorships (1)	+ -
Military Expenditures (1)	+ -
NEETs (1)	+ -

ETD Collection (8)	+ -
Honors Collection (2)	+ -

Powell, Jonathan (10)	+ -
University of Central Florida (10)	+ -
Dolan, Thomas (3)	+ -
Boutton, Andrew (2)	+ -
Hamann, Kerstin (2)	+ -

Kinsey, Barbara (2)	+ -
Ash, Konstantin (1)	+ -
Ben Hammou, Salah (1)	+ -
Bledsoe, Robert (1)	+ -
Boulibekova, Ajara (1)	+ -
Cibra, Vincenzo (1)	+ -
Farcau, Bruce (1)	+ -
Faulkner, Christopher (1)	+ -
Gannon, Barbara (1)	+ -
Handberg, Roger (1)	+ -
Hudson, Jennifer (1)	+ -
Kang, Kyungkook (1)	+ -
Mirilovic, Nikola (1)	+ -
Raugh, David (1)	+ -
Rice, Ailbhe (1)	+ -
Ritter, Kellan H (1)	+ -
Schafer, Mark (1)	+ -
Schiel, Rebecca (1)	+ -
Smith, Gary (1)	+ -
Tezcur, Gunes Murat (1)	+ -
Thyne, Clayton (1)	+ -
Walker, Stephen (1)	+ -
Whitaker, Beth (1)	+ -

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