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Optimization Approaches for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty
Title
Optimization Approaches for Electricity Generation Expansion Planning Under Uncertainty.
Creator
Zhan, Yiduo, Zheng, Qipeng, Vela, Adan, Garibay, Ivan, Sun, Wei, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
In this dissertation, we study the long-term electricity infrastructure investment planning problems in the electrical power system. These long-term capacity expansion planning problems aim at making the most effective and efficient investment decisions on both thermal and wind power generation units. One of our research focuses are uncertainty modeling in these long-term decision-making problems in power systems, because power systems' infrastructures require a large amount of investments,...
Show moreIn this dissertation, we study the long-term electricity infrastructure investment planning problems in the electrical power system. These long-term capacity expansion planning problems aim at making the most effective and efficient investment decisions on both thermal and wind power generation units. One of our research focuses are uncertainty modeling in these long-term decision-making problems in power systems, because power systems' infrastructures require a large amount of investments, and need to stay in operation for a long time and accommodate many different scenarios in the future. The uncertainties we are addressing in this dissertation mainly include demands, electricity prices, investment and maintenance costs of power generation units. To address these future uncertainties in the decision-making process, this dissertation adopts two different optimization approaches: decision-dependent stochastic programming and adaptive robust optimization. In the decision-dependent stochastic programming approach, we consider the electricity prices and generation units' investment and maintenance costs being endogenous uncertainties, and then design probability distribution functions of decision variables and input parameters based on well-established econometric theories, such as the discrete-choice theory and the economy-of-scale mechanism. In the adaptive robust optimization approach, we focus on finding the multistage adaptive robust solutions using affine policies while considering uncertain intervals of future demands.This dissertation mainly includes three research projects. The study of each project consists of two main parts, the formulation of its mathematical model and the development of solution algorithms for the model. This first problem concerns a large-scale investment problem on both thermal and wind power generation from an integrated angle without modeling all operational details. In this problem, we take a multistage decision-dependent stochastic programming approach while assuming uncertain electricity prices. We use a quasi-exact solution approach to solve this multistage stochastic nonlinear program. Numerical results show both computational efficient of the solutions approach and benefits of using our decision-dependent model over traditional stochastic programming models. The second problem concerns the long-term investment planning with detailed models of real-time operations. We also take a multistage decision-dependent stochastic programming approach to address endogenous uncertainties such as generation units' investment and maintenance costs. However, the detailed modeling of operations makes the problem a bilevel optimization problem. We then transform it to a Mathematic Program with Equilibrium Constraints (MPEC) problem. We design an efficient algorithm based on Dantzig-Wolfe decomposition to solve this multistage stochastic MPEC problem. The last problem concerns a multistage adaptive investment planning problem while considering uncertain future demand at various locations. To solve this multi-level optimization problem, we take advantage of affine policies to transform it to a single-level optimization problem. Our numerical examples show the benefits of using this multistage adaptive robust planning model over both traditional stochastic programming and single-level robust optimization approaches. Based on numerical studies in the three projects, we conclude that our approaches provide effective and efficient modeling and computational tools for advanced power systems' expansion planning.
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Date Issued
2016
Identifier
CFE0006676, ucf:51248
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006676
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION AND APPLICATIONS WITH ENDOGENOUS UNCERTAINTIES VIA DISCRETE CHOICE MODELSl
Title
STOCHASTIC OPTIMIZATION AND APPLICATIONS WITH ENDOGENOUS UNCERTAINTIES VIA DISCRETE CHOICE MODELSl.
Creator
Chen, Mengnan, Zheng, Qipeng, Boginski, Vladimir, Vela, Adan, Yayla Kullu, Muge, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Stochastic optimization is an optimization method that solves stochastic problems for minimizing or maximizing an objective function when there is randomness in the optimization process. In this dissertation, various stochastic optimization problems from the areas of Manufacturing, Health care, and Information Cascade are investigated in networks systems. These stochastic optimization problems aim to make plan for using existing resources to improve production efficiency, customer...
Show moreStochastic optimization is an optimization method that solves stochastic problems for minimizing or maximizing an objective function when there is randomness in the optimization process. In this dissertation, various stochastic optimization problems from the areas of Manufacturing, Health care, and Information Cascade are investigated in networks systems. These stochastic optimization problems aim to make plan for using existing resources to improve production efficiency, customer satisfaction, and information influence within limitation. Since the strategies are made for future planning, there are environmental uncertainties in the network systems. Sometimes, the environment may be changed due to the action of the decision maker. To handle this decision-dependent situation, the discrete choice model is applied to estimate the dynamic environment in the stochastic programming model. In the manufacturing project, production planning of lot allocation is performed to maximize the expected output within a limited time horizon. In the health care project, physician is allocated to different local clinics to maximize the patient utilization. In the information cascade project, seed selection of the source user helps the information holder to diffuse the message to target users using the independent cascade model to reach influence maximization. \parThe computation complexities of the three projects mentioned above grow exponentially by the network size. To solve the stochastic optimization problems of large-scale networks within a reasonable time, several problem-specific algorithms are designed for each project. In the manufacturing project, the sampling average approximation method is applied to reduce the scenario size. In the health care project, both the guided local search with gradient ascent and large neighborhood search with Tabu search are developed to approach the optimal solution. In the information cascade project, the myopic policy is used to separate stochastic programming by discrete time, and the Markov decision process is implemented in policy evaluation and updating.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFE0007792, ucf:52347
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007792