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Title: HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL DESIGN: THE COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENTIAL REGIMES.
Creator: Hristakopoulos, Michael, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Measures of human development, no matter their specific methodology, have always placed Costa Rica substantially higher than its neighbor, Nicaragua, but no apparent governmental, resource, or historical discrepancy can account for this gap. This thesis uses two case studies to examine this phenomenon from three different theoretical perspectives, and conclude which has the greatest explanatory power to account for the disparity between these two particular governments. Political scientists...
Show moreMeasures of human development, no matter their specific methodology, have always placed Costa Rica substantially higher than its neighbor, Nicaragua, but no apparent governmental, resource, or historical discrepancy can account for this gap. This thesis uses two case studies to examine this phenomenon from three different theoretical perspectives, and conclude which has the greatest explanatory power to account for the disparity between these two particular governments. Political scientists have noted that parliamentary systems lend themselves to better governance when compared with their presidential countersystems. Shugart and Carey (1992) cite peculiarities within some presidential models which may account for lower rates of human development. Another approach, offered by Tsebelis (2002) produces a more generalized explanation of this phenomenon, while Lawrence Harrison (1985) offers an entirely different, culture-based explanation. This thesis seeks to examine the validity of these claims, using Costa Rica and Nicaragua as case studies. Limiting the thesis to these two presidential governments will highlight the variation that exists within the presidential model, and possibly shed light on the most significant variables.
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Date Issued: 2011
Identifier: CFH0003801, ucf:44777
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0003801

Title: WHAT IMPACT IS FELONY DISENFRANCHISEMENT HAVING ON HISPANICS IN FLORIDA?.
Creator: Sanchez, Angel E, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This research produces original empirical estimates of Hispanics in Florida's Dept. of Corrections (FDOC) and uses those estimates to measure the impact felony disenfranchisement is having on Hispanics in Florida. Research institutions find that data on Hispanics in the criminal justice system, particularly in Florida, is either lacking or inaccurate. This research addresses this problem by applying an optimal surname list method using Census Bureau data and Bayes Theorem to produce an...
Show moreThis research produces original empirical estimates of Hispanics in Florida's Dept. of Corrections (FDOC) and uses those estimates to measure the impact felony disenfranchisement is having on Hispanics in Florida. Research institutions find that data on Hispanics in the criminal justice system, particularly in Florida, is either lacking or inaccurate. This research addresses this problem by applying an optimal surname list method using Census Bureau data and Bayes Theorem to produce an empirical estimate of Hispanics in FDOC's data. Using the Hispanic rate derived from the empirical FDOC analysis, the rate of Hispanics in the disenfranchised population is estimated. The results reveal that FDOC systematically undercounts Hispanics (and overcounts Whites) by nearly 8 percent - i.e., there are over 2.5 times more Hispanics in FDOC data than actually reported by FDOC. However, even when applying the upward adjusted rate of Hispanics to the disenfranchised population, Hispanics are still underrepresented and less likely to be disenfranchised than their White and Black counterparts in Florida. This research provides an accurate up-to-date state of the data with respect to Hispanics in FDOC; it applies a surname method which other researchers can use to address lacking or inaccurate data on Hispanics in the criminal justice system; and it calls into question research that relies on FDOC's inaccurate race data. Taken together, these findings might facilitate answers to many pressing questions on felony disenfranchisement in Florida and its impact on the political process.
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Date Issued: 2017
Identifier: CFH2000216, ucf:46035
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000216

Title: FRAMEWORKS FOR ENVIRONMENTAL POLICYMAKING IN BRAZIL AND CHILE: A COMPARATIVE POLICYMAKING ANALYSIS OF THE BELO MONTE AND HIDROAYS�N DAMS.
Creator: Vogan, Robert J, Wilson, Bruce M., University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: A global proliferation of large dam construction since the 1950s has been accompanied by scientific research challenging the benefit of these projects while drawing attention to their numerous negative environmental and social impacts. The institutions that assess the costs and benefits associated with large dam proposals, creating policies either approving, altering, or disapproving them, collectively form what is known as a policymaking framework. Examining these frameworks allows observers...
Show moreA global proliferation of large dam construction since the 1950s has been accompanied by scientific research challenging the benefit of these projects while drawing attention to their numerous negative environmental and social impacts. The institutions that assess the costs and benefits associated with large dam proposals, creating policies either approving, altering, or disapproving them, collectively form what is known as a policymaking framework. Examining these frameworks allows observers to trace policies through outlined decision-making processes and can help to reveal inherent biases within those systems that may impact policy outcomes. Often, divergent policy outcomes, like the those observed in the cases of the Belo Monte dam in Brazil and HidroAys�n dam in Chile, are a result of variations in the environmental policymaking frameworks of the deviating cases. The subjects of this study present similar arrangements of costs and benefits but resulted incongruous policy outcomes, specifically that the HidroAys�n dam was not built while the Belo Monte dam is currently under construction. Existing bodies of literature outlining the environmental policymaking frameworks of Chile and Brazil fail to fully address the influence of external variables, including presidential influence, corruption, and electoral politics, on these cases. This project synthesizes an outline of the environmental policymaking frameworks of Chile and Brazil from existing literature and uses the divergent cases of the Belo Monte and HidroAys�n dams to provide evidence for the incorporation of these external variables to better understand the incongruous policy outcomes these frameworks produce.
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Date Issued: 2016
Identifier: CFH2000129, ucf:46011
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000129

Title: DEMOCRACY ON TRIAL: EXAMINING ARGENTINA'S RESPONSE TO THE 1994 TERRORIST ATTACK ON THE AMIA JEWISH COMMUNITY CENTER IN BUENOS AIRES.
Creator: Crawford, Amy, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: On July 18, 1994, the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, was bombed in what has been called the worst terrorist attack on Argentina in history. The bombing killed an estimated 86 people and wounded over 200. The Argentine government began a judicial investigation and vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice. Twenty years later, the case remains unresolved. The investigation has been marked by inefficiency and allegations of corruption....
Show moreOn July 18, 1994, the Asociacion Mutual Israelita Argentina (AMIA), the Jewish Community Center in Buenos Aires, was bombed in what has been called the worst terrorist attack on Argentina in history. The bombing killed an estimated 86 people and wounded over 200. The Argentine government began a judicial investigation and vowed to bring the perpetrators to justice. Twenty years later, the case remains unresolved. The investigation has been marked by inefficiency and allegations of corruption. The recent, suspicious death of the lead prosecutor of the case has further called into question the legitimacy of Argentina's government and justice system. This thesis examines the Argentine government's response to the AMIA bombing in the context of Argentine politics. This thesis discusses Argentina's democratic stability, political performance, history of corruption, and economic situation as key factors in understanding the government's response to the AMIA attack and investigation. Argentina's response does not fit within the established models of a democracy's response to terrorism. Argentina's response, or lack thereof, to this terrorist attack is perplexing, but this surprising outcome may be explained by the country's political problems. The findings of this thesis support the conclusion that the Argentine government's response to the AMIA case can be attributed to its functioning but flawed democracy and faulty political performance. Argentina has a history of political and police corruption and a weak judicial branch, which has hindered the effectiveness of the justice system and complicated the AMIA investigation. The extent to which these factors have allowed corruption and economic interests to derail the investigation is still debated and offers an area for future research.
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Date Issued: 2015
Identifier: CFH0004754, ucf:45350
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004754

Title: POLITICAL PARTICIPATION AND E-PETITIONING: AN ANALYSIS OF THE POLICY-MAKING IMPACT OF THE SCOTTISH PARLIAMENT'S E-PETITION SYSTEM.
Creator: Cotton, Ross, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Worldwide, representative democracies have been experiencing declining levels of voter turnout, lower membership levels in political parties, and apathy towards their respective political systems and their ability to influence the political process. E-democracy, and specifically E-petitioning, have been touted as a possible solution to this problem by scholars of electoral systems. In 1999, the Scottish Parliament reconvened for the first time in nearly three hundred years, and quickly set...
Show moreWorldwide, representative democracies have been experiencing declining levels of voter turnout, lower membership levels in political parties, and apathy towards their respective political systems and their ability to influence the political process. E-democracy, and specifically E-petitioning, have been touted as a possible solution to this problem by scholars of electoral systems. In 1999, the Scottish Parliament reconvened for the first time in nearly three hundred years, and quickly set out to change the way politics were handled in Scotland by launching the world's first online E-petition system. Analyzing the Scottish Parliament's E-petition system, and assessing the extent to which it fulfilled the aspiration and goals of its designers serves as a litmus test to see whether it is an effective medium to increase public political participation, and whether it could be replicated in other democratic countries. Data was collected from the Scottish Parliament's E-petitioning website, which hosts all the E-petitions and details of who signed them, each E-petition's path through the Parliament, who sponsored the petition, and other important information. Since success of an E-petition is highly subjective due to the original petitioner's own desired goals, three case studies of E-petitions and a data analysis were utilized to evaluate the system. Results suggest that the Scottish Parliament's E-petition system has engaged Scots in the political process, given them a medium to participate in meaningful policy formulation, and produced tangible changes in policy through E-petitions.
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Date Issued: 2011
Identifier: CFH0004083, ucf:44808
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004083

Title: INTERPRETING THE RELATION BETWEEN IMMIGRANT HOSTILITY AND THE EXTREME FAR RIGHT IN ENGLAND.
Creator: Black, Tyler, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The study of race relations in England developed in the modern era amongst conflict between races, political parties and local communities. England, consisting of a predominantly white population, is an interesting case of race relations in that immigrants of color seem to be in the center of many of the most controversial conflicts of the past century. Existing research on race relations in England suggests that the region is largely racist due to the conflicts of the past and the current...
Show moreThe study of race relations in England developed in the modern era amongst conflict between races, political parties and local communities. England, consisting of a predominantly white population, is an interesting case of race relations in that immigrants of color seem to be in the center of many of the most controversial conflicts of the past century. Existing research on race relations in England suggests that the region is largely racist due to the conflicts of the past and the current political success of the anti-immigrant extreme right-wing parties (ERPs). But the times at which these parties have been successful compared with high levels of animosity towards non-white immigrant groups have not been thoroughly studied in the past decade. This research will attempt to answer questions regarding racial hostility and ERP success. Do ERPs receive support from purely racist groups during times of high levels of immigration? Or is their racist rhetoric cloaked by logical justification for anti-immigrant policies? ERPs such as the British National Party and The National Front have risen, fallen, evolved and dissolved since the 1960s. They have, in some cases, worked together to gain votes, but eventually break apart to form small, non-political factions that concentrate on social protests. Most recently, England has seen the decline of these particular ERPs, although anti-immigrant social groups still remain strong. Those that were associated with recently dissolved ERPs may turn their attention United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP), a party that has a message similar to the BNP, but has a more consistent and attractive political platform. UKIP is an anti-immigrant party and its current success is an interesting case study in this thesis.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFH0004432, ucf:45137
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004432

Title: THE GREAT LEAP BACKWARD: EXPLORING THE DIFFERENCES IN DEVELOPMENT PATHS BETWEEN THE DOMINICAN REPUBLIC AND HAITI.
Creator: Valeris , Rebb, Wilson , Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis examines the variance in human development paths and policies pursed on the island of Hispaniola by the governments of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The different paths have resulted in significant dissimilarities in contemporary levels of economic and social development across the island. Starting from the theoretical perspective of Acemplgu and Robinson (2012), I find that institutional explanations can only explain part of this divergence. I argue that a more complete...
Show moreThis thesis examines the variance in human development paths and policies pursed on the island of Hispaniola by the governments of the Dominican Republic and Haiti. The different paths have resulted in significant dissimilarities in contemporary levels of economic and social development across the island. Starting from the theoretical perspective of Acemplgu and Robinson (2012), I find that institutional explanations can only explain part of this divergence. I argue that a more complete explanation needs to take into consideration the role played by class, color, and race. I also find that foreign intervention, particularly the occupation of both countries by the US Marines in the 20th century, helped direct the development strategies of each country in different directions.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFH0004493, ucf:45079
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004493

Title: How Political Violence Helps Explain Organized Crime: A Case Study of Mexico's "War on Drugs".
Creator: Fulk, Alanna, Ash, Konstantin, Wilson, Bruce, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This thesis examines research from the disciplines of political science and criminal justice to develop a theory that explains geographic variation in violence related to organized crime. Large-scale organized crime violence exhibits characteristics of both ordinary crime violence and political violence, but these subjects are generally analyzed separately. However, as large-scale organized crime has become more prevalent and violent in recent years, most notably in Latin America, studies,...
Show moreThis thesis examines research from the disciplines of political science and criminal justice to develop a theory that explains geographic variation in violence related to organized crime. Large-scale organized crime violence exhibits characteristics of both ordinary crime violence and political violence, but these subjects are generally analyzed separately. However, as large-scale organized crime has become more prevalent and violent in recent years, most notably in Latin America, studies, including this one, have attempted to cross disciplinary boundaries in order to better explain trends in organized crime onset, termination and violence. This thesis argues that although the overall goal of organized crime groups is not to take control of a country, both organized crime groups and insurgent groups confront the state's monopoly on violence, leading to evident similarities in the way they use violence to attain their goals. They both use violence to maintain control over resources, take control from other groups and retaliate against the government. Previous literature has demonstrated that control is directly linked to geographic variation in political violence and through case studies of organized crime violence in Honduras and Brazil, as well as negative binomial regression analysis of organized crime violence in Mexico, this thesis finds that control is also directly linked to geographic variation in organized crime violence.
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFE0007457, ucf:52688
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007457

Title: Why is Democracy in Decline: Democratic Backsliding in Venezuela and Turkey.
Creator: Bayraktar, Fatih, Ash, Konstantin, Wilson, Bruce, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: It has long been argued that the end of the 20th century marked the triumph of liberal democracy. The third wave of democracy has increased the number of democracies in the world unprecedentedly and gave hope to many that democratic revolution is underway. However, in the last decade, this democratization process seems to have halted; there has been decline both in the number and quality of democracies. This thesis proposes an agent-based theory of democratic backsliding. More specifically,...
Show moreIt has long been argued that the end of the 20th century marked the triumph of liberal democracy. The third wave of democracy has increased the number of democracies in the world unprecedentedly and gave hope to many that democratic revolution is underway. However, in the last decade, this democratization process seems to have halted; there has been decline both in the number and quality of democracies. This thesis proposes an agent-based theory of democratic backsliding. More specifically, it is argued that leaders with undemocratic normative preferences and their ability to mobilize previously persecuted segments of society are the driving factors behind the present-day authoritarian resurgence. While the leader's fight with the oppressors of the marginalized group can bring a short-term of democratization, we argue that the unconditional support given by the marginalized group to the leader can allow the leader to undermine democracy by removing the checks on his power. The paper attempts to investigate similarities in the process of democratic derogation in a comparative case study of Venezuela and Turkey. The study shows that the support given to Erdogan and Chavez by the previously persecuted groups in their respective countries, religious/conservatives in Turkey and poor in Venezuela, allowed both leaders to undermine democracy in a subtle and incremental way.
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Date Issued: 2018
Identifier: CFE0007155, ucf:52302
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007155

Title: Explaining the Support of the British National Party (BNP) in the 1999, 2004, and 2009 European Union Elections.
Creator: Willis, Jonathan, Kinsey, Barbara, Kim, Myunghee, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: In the past decade, there has been a surge of interest in extreme right Western European parties. Well-established parties such as the National Front (FN) in France, Vlaams Belang (formerly Vlaams Blok) in Belgium, and Lega Nord in Italy have been scrutinized. However, extreme right parties that have just recently begun to experience electoral successes such as the British National Party (BNP) have received less evaluation and discussion in the literature. Therefore, this study examines the...
Show moreIn the past decade, there has been a surge of interest in extreme right Western European parties. Well-established parties such as the National Front (FN) in France, Vlaams Belang (formerly Vlaams Blok) in Belgium, and Lega Nord in Italy have been scrutinized. However, extreme right parties that have just recently begun to experience electoral successes such as the British National Party (BNP) have received less evaluation and discussion in the literature. Therefore, this study examines the BNP's electoral fortunes in the European elections of 1999, 2004, and 2009. I explore the support for the BNP using the traditional variables of unemployment, education, income, and immigration. In addition to these variables, I examine how support for other parties present in Great Britain, such as the right-wing United Kingdom Independence Party (UKIP) and the center-right Conservative Party affects electoral support for the BNP. I find that support for other right-wing parties in Great Britain do exert an influence on BNP electoral fortunes (the UKIP a positive one, and the Conservative Party a negative one). I also find a strong negative link between BNP support and education and a weak positive one between BNP support and unemployment. However, income and immigration rates appear to have no effect on voter support for the BNP.
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Date Issued: 2011
Identifier: CFE0004179, ucf:49068
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004179

Title: Non-state Actors in Jamaican Economic Policy.
Creator: Jarrett, Matthew, Young, Kurt, Wilson, Bruce, Gibbs, Warmoth, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The relevance in understanding local dynamics or political culture is that as Neuman has pointed out, many traditional theories have not taken them into account and have thus failed in explaining political occurrences in the lesser developed world. For example as she has stated, (")domestic factors(") have not been considered into (")systems theories("). (Neuman, 1995, p.16) On this basis, it is necessary to point out these local factors, and furthermore, the role of non-state actors within...
Show moreThe relevance in understanding local dynamics or political culture is that as Neuman has pointed out, many traditional theories have not taken them into account and have thus failed in explaining political occurrences in the lesser developed world. For example as she has stated, (")domestic factors(") have not been considered into (")systems theories("). (Neuman, 1995, p.16) On this basis, it is necessary to point out these local factors, and furthermore, the role of non-state actors within the realm of internal dynamics, since international relations theory also aims to understand the formation and motivation behind economic policy. Therefore, to produce a proper understanding of Jamaican economic policy, specific areas are examined: the political culture of Jamaican politics and the role of non-state actors as they function within the Jamaican state. The two sets of non-state actors are defined as internal and external. The internal consists of two political parties: the People's National Party and the Jamaica Labour Party; and also one social class group: the urban poor. And also, the external consists of: the International Monetary Fund and World Bank. The relationships between these groups and their relationships with the state are examined in order to identify how they affect economic policy. The constructivist theory due to its flexibility in its units of analysis, and its emphasis on (")culture("), and (")worldview(") helps to provide a useful framework for the discussion.
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Date Issued: 2011
Identifier: CFE0004476, ucf:49307
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004476

Title: Incumbent Violence and Insurgent Tactics: The Effects of Incumbent Violence on Popular Support for Guerrilla Warfare and Terrorism.
Creator: Williams, Jonathan, Dolan, Thomas, Wilson, Bruce, Mirilovic, Nikola, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: Insurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in...
Show moreInsurgency has two main strategies, guerrilla warfare and terrorism, which should be treated as linked, but distinct, strategies. This thesis examines the role of incumbent violence in leading insurgents to select one, or both, of these strategies. It argues that incumbent violence can create support for insurgency by causing fear and a desire for revenge and reshaping the social structures of a community. It also argues that incumbent violence increases popular support for terrorism in particular by creating outbidding incentives and desires to respond in kind to civilian deaths and as a way of punishing norm violations against attacking civilians on the part of the incumbent. The paper tests this theory with a qualitative case study of the conflict in Northern Ireland during the 1970s and a quantitative analysis of insurgent violence in the Kirkuk, Diyala, Babylon, and Salah al Din provinces during the 2003-2009 Iraq conflict.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004959, ucf:49598
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004959

Title: On Obama Administration Gun Policy With Continual Reference To The Multiple Streams Model.
Creator: Hristakopoulos, Michael, Vieux, Andrea, Wilson, Bruce, Kinsey, Barbara, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: The Multiple Streams model developed by John Kingdon (1995) and Nikolaos Zahariadis (2007) provides a valuable framework for understanding the nature of policy change. This investigation draws extensively upon the Multiple Streams framework in order to understand the development of gun-control policy initiatives under President Barack Obama.The investigation uses a case-study approach with in-depth analysis of four different mass-shooting events that took place in the United States between...
Show moreThe Multiple Streams model developed by John Kingdon (1995) and Nikolaos Zahariadis (2007) provides a valuable framework for understanding the nature of policy change. This investigation draws extensively upon the Multiple Streams framework in order to understand the development of gun-control policy initiatives under President Barack Obama.The investigation uses a case-study approach with in-depth analysis of four different mass-shooting events that took place in the United States between 2009 and 2012. Reconstruction of the shooting events and detailed parsing of the Obama administration's official responses to each incident, when viewed through the Multiple Streams lens, clearly explain why Obama's aggressive policy initiative was so delayed in its emergence in spite of several shootings and the President's clearly stated belief that gun-reform was a necessary step for the federal government. While the term (")policy change(") is broad and may encompass all sorts of governmental responsiveness, the term herein should be interpreted in the narrowest sense: exclusively encompassing legislative initiatives.Ultimately, the investigation concludes that numerous factors, but most prominently concerns about the timing and results of the 2010 Midterm and 2012 General Elections, prevented an aggressive pursuit of gun-reform prior to January 2013. The tragic shooting of 28 people in Newtown, Connecticut, then served as a prime focusing event for the President to aggressively engage a long-standing goal.
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Date Issued: 2013
Identifier: CFE0004865, ucf:49716
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004865

Title: Economic Inequality and Democratic Representative Institutions Across Western Industrialized Democracies.
Creator: Plungis, Donald, Kinsey, Barbara, Wilson, Bruce, Hamann, Kerstin, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This study examines the effects of political representation on economic inequality across western industrialized democracies. I explore an explanation of increases in economic inequality as a consequence of less representative democratic institutions. Explaining economic inequality in this manner is a shift from to the Transatlantic Consensus that attributes increased economic inequality to globalization. I expect to find that more representative electoral and governments institutions will be...
Show moreThis study examines the effects of political representation on economic inequality across western industrialized democracies. I explore an explanation of increases in economic inequality as a consequence of less representative democratic institutions. Explaining economic inequality in this manner is a shift from to the Transatlantic Consensus that attributes increased economic inequality to globalization. I expect to find that more representative electoral and governments institutions will be associated with lower levels of economic inequality. The analysis takes place across twenty-three countries of the Organization for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD) over the past forty years using a cross-sectional longitudinal model. Variables used to operationalize the level of representation of democratic institutions include a novel variable of the representative ratio, the effective number of parties, an index of institutional constraints, presidential system, single member districts, and judicial review. Voter turnout, the percentage of seats held by women, gross domestic product per capita, unemployment, and the size of the industrial sector are used as control variables. The findings support the main hypothesis: as political representation increases, economic inequality decreases.
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Date Issued: 2014
Identifier: CFE0005230, ucf:50591
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005230

Title: Exogenous Shocks and Political Unrest.
Creator: Nurmanova, Didara, Tezcur, Gunes Murat, Ash, Konstantin, Wilson, Bruce, Alpanda, Sami, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description: This dissertation explores the role of exogenous shocks such as economic shocks and natural disasters in producing political unrest in the form of anti-government protests and ethnic riots. It is integrated by three articles, each covering a different topic. The first article argues that economic shocks play a crucial role in protest mobilization in rentier states conditional on weaker repressive capacity or higher taxation. Empirically, it conducts a cross-national study of high-resource...
Show moreThis dissertation explores the role of exogenous shocks such as economic shocks and natural disasters in producing political unrest in the form of anti-government protests and ethnic riots. It is integrated by three articles, each covering a different topic. The first article argues that economic shocks play a crucial role in protest mobilization in rentier states conditional on weaker repressive capacity or higher taxation. Empirically, it conducts a cross-national study of high-resource dependent states in the period of 1995-2014. The second article contends that there is a variation in a degree to which a country's regions are exposed to economic shocks. A higher regional exposure to economic shocks is argued to increase the likelihood of regional anti-government protest at in competitive autocracies. The argument is tested in a subnational analysis of Russia using original dataset of regional anti-government protest and regional economic data in the period of 2007-2015. The third article develops a theory of natural disasters and ethnic riots. It argues that climate-induced meteorological disasters increase chances of ethnic riots because of declined state capacity that creates uncertainty about enforcement of existing ethnic contracts, and feelings of uncertainty result in strong group categorization, stereotyping and polarization. The argument is tested in a subnational study of Hindu-Muslim riots in Indian states in the period of 1951-2015. The results of the studies in this dissertation offer three key findings: (1) higher resource rents lower protest likelihood in autocratic rentier states with higher repressive capacity; (2) regional unemployment is a strong predictor of anti-government protest; (3) natural disasters in the form of precipitation and temperature anomalies increase chances of ethnic riots. The findings suggest a conclusion that exogenous shocks are important predictors of anti-government protest and ethnic riots.
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Date Issued: 2019
Identifier: CFE0007510, ucf:52644
Format: Document (PDF)
PURL: http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007510

extreme right (2)	+ -
AMIA (1)	+ -
Acemplgu and Robinson (1)	+ -
Argentina (1)	+ -
Aurora (1)	+ -

BNP (1)	+ -
British National Party (1)	+ -
British politics (1)	+ -
Carthage (1)	+ -
Comparative Case Study (1)	+ -
Democracy (1)	+ -
Democratic Backsliding (1)	+ -
Development (1)	+ -
E-democracy (1)	+ -
E-petition (1)	+ -
Education (1)	+ -
England (1)	+ -
European Elections (1)	+ -
European Parliament (1)	+ -
Haiti (1)	+ -
Illiberal Democracy (1)	+ -
Immigration (1)	+ -
Income (1)	+ -
Institutions (1)	+ -
Islam (1)	+ -
Jamaica political culture economics (1)	+ -
Latin America (1)	+ -
Latinos (1)	+ -
Middle East (1)	+ -
Multiple Streams (1)	+ -

ETD Collection (8)	+ -
Honors Collection (7)	+ -

University of Central Florida (15)	+ -
Wilson, Bruce (13)	+ -
Ash, Konstantin (3)	+ -
Kinsey, Barbara (3)	+ -
Dolan, Thomas (2)	+ -

Hristakopoulos, Michael (2)	+ -
Mirilovic, Nikola (2)	+ -
Alpanda, Sami (1)	+ -
Bayraktar, Fatih (1)	+ -
Black, Tyler (1)	+ -
Cotton, Ross (1)	+ -
Crawford, Amy (1)	+ -
Fulk, Alanna (1)	+ -
Gibbs, Warmoth (1)	+ -
Hamann, Kerstin (1)	+ -
Jarrett, Matthew (1)	+ -
Kim, Myunghee (1)	+ -
Nurmanova, Didara (1)	+ -
Plungis, Donald (1)	+ -
Sanchez, Angel E (1)	+ -
Tezcur, Gunes Murat (1)	+ -
Valeris , Rebb (1)	+ -
Vieux, Andrea (1)	+ -
Vogan, Robert J (1)	+ -
Williams, Jonathan (1)	+ -
Willis, Jonathan (1)	+ -
Wilson , Bruce (1)	+ -
Wilson, Bruce M. (1)	+ -
Young, Kurt (1)	+ -

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