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- Title
- Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code.
- Creator
-
George, William, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
Does the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used...
Show moreDoes the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used ordered logistic regression across three models to determine the effect of the operational code on state crisis behavior while controlling for key domestic and crisis dimension variables. Predicted probabilities were also used to better demonstrate the variables' substantive effects. The 50 cases used in this research are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Dataset composed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld, and they focus on the United States as the major crisis actor. Operational code data were derived from computer-based content analysis using the Verbs In Context System (Walker, Schafer, and Young 1998). The theoretical goal of this paper was to explain variance in state crisis behavior through variations in the operational codes of US Presidents. The results demonstrate that the operational codes of leaders do affect state crisis behavior. Specifically, the operational code indices P1 and I1 show that a leader with a more conflictual view of the nature of the political universe and a conflictual direction of strategy is more likely to employ escalatory crisis behavior.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- CFE0005336, ucf:50528
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005336
- Title
- Leadership Distrust, Need for Power, and the Initiation of Militarized Interstate Disputes.
- Creator
-
Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Pollock, Philip, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
Does a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait...
Show moreDoes a leader's psychology affect his/her likelihood of initiating a militarized interstate dispute? The study of leadership psychology has continuously found support for the central assumption that leaders matter in explaining a state's foreign policy behavior. However, many of these research projects have relied on small-sample case studies and experimental methods that have limited generalizability. In this paper, I use two variables drawn from the research program on leadership trait analysis (distrust and need for power) in a multivariate large-n study to explain the initiation of militarized interstate disputes (MIDs). 1,601 cases are drawn from the Correlates of War MID data set. First, using an ANOVA model, I demonstrate that MID initiators have higher average scores for both distrust and need for power and that this difference is statistically significant. Then, using logistic regression, I demonstrate that distrust and need for power have statistically significant positive effects on the likelihood of MID initiation. I conclude by comparing the predicted probabilities of the psychological variables of interest with territorial contiguity. All of these methods demonstrate that the psychological traits of leaders have an important effect on the likelihood of MID initiation.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- CFE0005418, ucf:50423
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005418
- Title
- The Perception of Turkey in the Middle East in the Last Decade: The Cases of Egypt and Tunisia.
- Creator
-
Hasgur, Mesud, Sadri, Houman, Morales, Waltraud, Houghton, David, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
This study examined the factors affecting the perception of Turkey in the Middle East from 2002 onwards by analyzing the combination of media, political elite discourse and people's political predispositions in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia. The research is separated into two parts. In the first part of 2002-2010, the factors of democratization, economic development, foreign policy activism, Islamic Oriented Government as well as Turkish TV series were found to be critical in the explanation...
Show moreThis study examined the factors affecting the perception of Turkey in the Middle East from 2002 onwards by analyzing the combination of media, political elite discourse and people's political predispositions in the cases of Egypt and Tunisia. The research is separated into two parts. In the first part of 2002-2010, the factors of democratization, economic development, foreign policy activism, Islamic Oriented Government as well as Turkish TV series were found to be critical in the explanation of Turkey's popularity. In the second part of 2010-2013, democratization and foreign policy activism were the most effective factors while the other variables still had some effect. In particular the study looked at the news titles, articles, headlines in newspapers, as well as the views of journalists, activists, bloggers, politicians, and academics, which together shaped public perception. A brief historical background is also given in regards to the mutual prejudices and stereotypes between Arabs and Turks during Ottoman rule and the 20th century. The thesis concludes by emphasizing the continuation of democratic progress and reforms in Turkey as well as the need for foreign policy adjustment according to crisis situations as a policy recommendation for the government. The present study also seeks to contribute to both the public opinion theory of Zaller and the recent literature on the (")Turkish Model(").
Show less - Date Issued
- 2013
- Identifier
- CFE0005349, ucf:50499
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005349
- Title
- Japanese imperialism stripped: The secret memorandum of Tanaka, premier of Japan.
- Creator
-
Tanaka, Giichi
- Date Issued
- 1933
- Identifier
- 369339, CFDT369339, ucf:5422
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/369339
- Title
- Shadow over Asia: The rise of militant Japan.
- Creator
-
Bisson, T. A. (Thomas Arthur), Graphic Associates
- Date Issued
- 1941
- Identifier
- 2683242, CFDT2683242, ucf:5052
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/2683242
- Title
- Danger and opportunity.
- Creator
-
Warburg, James Paul
- Date Issued
- 1956
- Identifier
- 2683767, CFDT2683767, ucf:5138
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/2683767
- Title
- Cuba versus CIA.
- Creator
-
Light, Robert E., Marzani, Carl
- Date Issued
- 1961
- Identifier
- 2683735, CFDT2683735, ucf:5122
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/2683735
- Title
- From socialism to communism in the Soviet Union: Report on the work of the Central Committee to the Eighteenth Congress of the C.P.S.U.(B.) delivered March 10, 1939.
- Creator
-
Stalin, Joseph, T︠S︡K KPSS
- Date Issued
- 1939
- Identifier
- 2180034, CFDT2180034, ucf:4933
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/2180034
- Title
- SOFT POWER AND HARD POWER APPROACHES IN U.S. FOREIGN POLICY: A CASE STUDY COMPARISON IN LATIN AMERICA.
- Creator
-
Weinbrenner, John, Dolan, Chris, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
The purpose of this study was to examine the effects of soft power versus hard power in U.S. policy towards Latin America. In recent years America's unipolar moment has been challenged from populist leaders in the region to its inability to get a handle on the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs that reach its shores. This thesis is a step to understanding the difference between power and influence as well as the effects of hard power and soft power in U.S. foreign policy. A...
Show moreThe purpose of this study was to examine the effects of soft power versus hard power in U.S. policy towards Latin America. In recent years America's unipolar moment has been challenged from populist leaders in the region to its inability to get a handle on the flow of illegal immigrants and illicit drugs that reach its shores. This thesis is a step to understanding the difference between power and influence as well as the effects of hard power and soft power in U.S. foreign policy. A historical comparative case study analysis has been conducted utilizing the cases of FDR's Good Neighbor policy and Reagan's contra war policies. This qualitative approach examined specific short-term and long-term goals of each policy and analyzed each strategy's ability to achieve those stated goals. The results of the study reveal that both soft and hard power approaches can have positive as well as negative effects on American influence in Latin America.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2007
- Identifier
- CFE0001600, ucf:47175
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001600
- Title
- DEGREES OF CAUSALITY: AN ASSESSMENT OF ENDOGENOUS CONTRIBUTORS TO INSTABILITY IN JORDAN, SYRIA, & TURKEY.
- Creator
-
Willman, Gabriel, Sadri, Houman, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
The political instability of the Middle East is often perceived to be derived primarily from the interaction of Middle Eastern nations with external forces; with significant emphasis placed upon the disruptive effects of modern colonialism and Westernization. While this study does not seek to directly contest the catalytic primacy of exogenous factors, it does seek to establish the necessary causality of pre-existing internal factors. Rather than approaching the situation from a linear causal...
Show moreThe political instability of the Middle East is often perceived to be derived primarily from the interaction of Middle Eastern nations with external forces; with significant emphasis placed upon the disruptive effects of modern colonialism and Westernization. While this study does not seek to directly contest the catalytic primacy of exogenous factors, it does seek to establish the necessary causality of pre-existing internal factors. Rather than approaching the situation from a linear causal perspective, this assessment is oriented around an interdisciplinary examination of confluent factors. By examining the political history, ethno sociology, and economy of the region, the analysis investigates the underlying variables which have contributed to the instability of the Jordan, Syria, and Turkey. The primary conclusion of this analysis is that the interactions of multiple endogenous variables provide a basis of necessary causality which may be of equal causal import to that of modern colonialism and Westernization.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2012
- Identifier
- CFH0004228, ucf:44965
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004228
- Title
- MIGRANT WORKERS IN SOUTH-EAST ASIA:ECONOMIC AND SOCIAL INEQUALITY IN INDONESIA, MALAYSIA, AND SINGAPORE.
- Creator
-
Hajek, Patricia, Morales, Waltraud, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
This thesis explores migrant labor in South-East Asia by addressing the topic of migration, specifically its causes and consequences. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are countries that experienced rapid industrialization from the mid-1960s throughout the 1990s. Simultaneously, the migration of people within the region increased. A key focus is how regional development has contributed to migration flows and to the position of migrants in these countries. Using a migration systems framework...
Show moreThis thesis explores migrant labor in South-East Asia by addressing the topic of migration, specifically its causes and consequences. Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore are countries that experienced rapid industrialization from the mid-1960s throughout the 1990s. Simultaneously, the migration of people within the region increased. A key focus is how regional development has contributed to migration flows and to the position of migrants in these countries. Using a migration systems framework from Castles' and Miller's The Age of Migration (2003) that draws on theoretical elements from economics, historical-structuralism and transnationalism, this thesis finds that several factors explain the causes of migration in Indonesia, Malaysia, and Singapore and the lasting implications migration had in their respective societies. Both macro- and micro-structures influenced industrialization and a migratory labor market. The historical, political, and economic linkages shared among the countries, alongside regional integration and attractive government-led industrialization strategies contributed to large-scale flows of migrant workers within the region. These same factors made migration and settlement increasingly difficult. Consequently, human rights violations of migrants in these countries became more pronounced. Singapore's dominance of Indonesia and Malaysia in the semi-periphery of South-East Asia conditioned the environment that migrants faced in their host societies. Migrant workers from Indonesia and Malaysia enjoyed better treatment in Singapore, because of its targeted labor, immigration, and social policies. In all three countries, settlement patterns of migrant workers were virtually similar to government commitments to prevent assimilation.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2008
- Identifier
- CFE0002152, ucf:47929
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002152
- Title
- Turning Away From Your Slavic Brother: The Effects Of Identity On Relations Between Russia And Belarus.
- Creator
-
Matejka, Matt, Morales, Waltraud, Dolan, Thomas, Houghton, David, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
On September 24, 2011, it was announced that Putin would run for president once again in 2012. The reaction in the West was that (")the more things change, the more they stay the same.(") The Western conception of the post-Cold War Russia is often one of remarkable consistency since the turn of the century. This Western narrative focuses on an autocratic Putin reigning over his resurgent and confrontational Russia. Does this narrative tell the story of Russia today, or does it instead obscure...
Show moreOn September 24, 2011, it was announced that Putin would run for president once again in 2012. The reaction in the West was that (")the more things change, the more they stay the same.(") The Western conception of the post-Cold War Russia is often one of remarkable consistency since the turn of the century. This Western narrative focuses on an autocratic Putin reigning over his resurgent and confrontational Russia. Does this narrative tell the story of Russia today, or does it instead obscure it? To answer this I have elected to analyze Russian identity and how it relates to Russia's foreign policy with Belarus, traditionally a close ally of Russia. Analyzing news articles from state-owned Russia Today, I look at changes in reporting and Russian identity over time. I argue that a shift in Russian identity towards a more liberal outlook between 2006 and 2010 motivated a degradation of relations with Belarus. I argue that once the simplified narrative of a resurgent Russia is peeled back, a closer look reveals competing identities and competing interest groups in Russia's domestic arena. Finally I conclude that not only does identity play a pivotal role in Russia's relations, but also that researching identity is important in that it gives us a window into a fairly closed regime that lies at the center of the global stage. Discovering how Russian identity reacts to and influences foreign policy can offer insight into the domestic framework of contemporary Russia, as well as offer us an understanding of how central ideas are to crafting the world around us.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2012
- Identifier
- CFE0004249, ucf:49542
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004249
- Title
- The world situation, the internal and international position of the Soviet Union.
- Creator
-
TSK KPSS, Stalin, Joseph, Kommunisticheskaiia partiia Sovetskogo Soiuza
- Date Issued
- 1934
- Identifier
- 369238, CFDT369238, ucf:5407
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/369238
- Title
- The October revolution and the struggle for socialism.
- Creator
-
Molotov, Vyacheslav Mikhaylovich
- Date Issued
- 1932
- Identifier
- 671346, CFDT671346, ucf:5561
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/671346
- Title
- PHONETIC AND ACOUSTIC ANALYSES OF TWO NEW CASES OF FOREIGN ACCENT SYNDROME.
- Creator
-
Perkins, Rosalie, Ryalls, Jack, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
This study presents detailed phonetic and acoustic analyses of the speech characteristics of two new cases of Foreign Accent Syndrome (FAS). Participants include a 48-year-old female who began speaking with an "Eastern European" accent following a traumatic brain injury, and a 45-year-old male who presented with a "British" accent following a subcortical cerebral vascular accident (CVA). Identical samples of the participants' pre- and post-morbid speech were obtained, thus affording a new...
Show moreThis study presents detailed phonetic and acoustic analyses of the speech characteristics of two new cases of Foreign Accent Syndrome (FAS). Participants include a 48-year-old female who began speaking with an "Eastern European" accent following a traumatic brain injury, and a 45-year-old male who presented with a "British" accent following a subcortical cerebral vascular accident (CVA). Identical samples of the participants' pre- and post-morbid speech were obtained, thus affording a new level of control in the study of Foreign Accent Syndrome. The speech tasks consisted of oral readings of the Grandfather Passage and 18 real words comprised of the stop consonants /p/, /t/, /k/, /b/, /d/, /g/ combined with the peripheral vowels /i/, /a/ and /u/ and ending in a voiceless stop. Computer-based acoustic measures included: 1) voice onset time (VOT), 2) vowel durations, 3) whole word durations, 4) first, second and third formant frequencies, and 5) fundamental frequency. Formant frequencies were measured at three points in the vowel duration: a) 20%, b) 50%, and c) 80% to assess differences in vowel 'onglides' and 'offglides'. The phonetic analysis provided perceptual identification of the major phonetic features associated with the foreign quality of participant's FAS speech, while acoustic measures allowed precise quantification of these features. Results indicated evidence of backing of consonant and vowel productions for both participants. The implications for future research and clinical applications are also considered.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2007
- Identifier
- CFE0001916, ucf:47488
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001916
- Title
- The working relationship of international teaching assistants and undergraduate students.
- Creator
-
Farina, Marcella, Stebbins, Consuelo, Arts and Sciences
- Abstract / Description
-
The present study was conducted to ascertain undergraduate views about the effectiveness of International Teaching Assistants (ITAs) in the American classroom. The study was administered to a stratified cluster sampling by college of the target population, undergraduate students at the University of Central Florida, in Orlando, Florida. The instrument used, Questionnaire of Undergraduates about International Teaching Assistants (QUITA) as developed by Wanda Fox (1990), is composed of a total...
Show moreThe present study was conducted to ascertain undergraduate views about the effectiveness of International Teaching Assistants (ITAs) in the American classroom. The study was administered to a stratified cluster sampling by college of the target population, undergraduate students at the University of Central Florida, in Orlando, Florida. The instrument used, Questionnaire of Undergraduates about International Teaching Assistants (QUITA) as developed by Wanda Fox (1990), is composed of a total of 40 items regarding personal and academic background, cultural exposure to and views about non-native speakers of English, and ITA-classroom effectiveness and problem-solving strategies. On the basis of data from the Fall 1998 semester, approximately 15% of the total number of ITA-taught course sections per college were surveyed. The subjects responded anonymously using computerized answer sheets. Upon completion of the data collection phase, all surveys were analyzed for response frequencies. In addition, background and demographic information regarding the participants and information regarding undergraduate exposure to IT As and IT A instruction were also summarized. The Likert-type items were combined to reveal an overall ATITA (Attitude toward International Teaching Assistants) score. The results of the ATITA portion of the study indicate that undergraduate student views toward IT As and IT A instruction are between neutral and mildly positive. Furthermore, survey responses indicated that undergraduates resolve conflicts involving IT As through personal means. The closing recommendations suggest maintaining open lines of communication between undergraduates, ITAs, and administrators alike.
Show less - Date Issued
- 1999
- Identifier
- CFR0003046, ucf:52915
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFR0003046
- Title
- The Relationship of English Language Scores on International Students' Academic Success.
- Creator
-
Shbeeb, Rebekah, Biraimah, Karen, Cintron Delgado, Rosa, Bai, Haiyan, Wolford, Anna, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
International graduate students at the University of Central Florida (UCF) are not completing graduate programs at the same rate as domestic graduate students. One of the main differences in the admissions process for international graduate students compared to domestic students is the English language test requirement. The purpose of this study was twofold: to test if the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) or the (International English Language Testing System) IELTS scores have...
Show moreInternational graduate students at the University of Central Florida (UCF) are not completing graduate programs at the same rate as domestic graduate students. One of the main differences in the admissions process for international graduate students compared to domestic students is the English language test requirement. The purpose of this study was twofold: to test if the Test of English as a Foreign Language (TOEFL) or the (International English Language Testing System) IELTS scores have any statistically significant linear relationships to international graduate students' academic success as defined by their cumulative grade point average (CGPA). Secondly, this study sought to understand how international graduate students feel about the TOEFL and/or IELTS, and whether or not they feel prepared for study with regards to their English language ability. Using mixed-methods research, data were retrieved from international graduate students who graduated from UCF during the 2012 (-) 2016 academic school years. Information from a total of 583 international graduate students was included in the retrieved data collection and data analyses. A survey was also utilized to assess current international graduate students' perceptions of the English language test and requirements. A total of 235 students completed the survey. The study demonstrated that TOEFL and IELTS scores do not have any statistically significant linear relationship to international graduate students' CGPA. Therefore, results from this research study did not indicate that the English language test scores have an impact on academic success for international graduate students who met the UCF admission requirements. The findings also demonstrate that international graduate students generally feel the scores are an accurate assessment of their English language abilities. However, many international graduate students expressed a desire for additional English language resources.The findings are beneficial in able to better understand whether or not English language test scores have any impact on international graduate students' success, and to more accurately comprehend the international graduate students' perspective regarding the language requirement.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFE0007725, ucf:52421
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007725
- Title
- Examination of the Challenges Faced by Foreign-born Students in a State College that may Prolong/Prevent Graduation.
- Creator
-
Soremi, Modupe, Hopp, Carolyn, Cox, Dr. Thomas, Vitale, Thomas, Joe, Richelle, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
This research study stems from several reports indicating the increasing competitiveness of the world economy, the requirement of at least an associate degree in the fastest growing jobs in the U.S. labor market, and the unprecedented increase in the foreign-born population in the United States since the 1970s (U.S. Census Bureau Web, 2016; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projection, 2009; President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), 2009). Understanding the challenges faced by...
Show moreThis research study stems from several reports indicating the increasing competitiveness of the world economy, the requirement of at least an associate degree in the fastest growing jobs in the U.S. labor market, and the unprecedented increase in the foreign-born population in the United States since the 1970s (U.S. Census Bureau Web, 2016; Bureau of Labor Statistics, Employment Projection, 2009; President's Council of Economic Advisers (CEA), 2009). Understanding the challenges faced by foreign-born students at state colleges will create an avenue for recommending solutions to many these challenges, thereby increasing their educational attainment and economic productivity, hence preparing more Americans for the competitive 21st century global market.Using a qualitative phenomenological approach, the researcher explored, interpreted, and described challenges faced by foreign-born students (FBS) in a State college that could prevent/prolong their graduation. In addition, the researcher solicited recommendations for improvement in order to gather the necessary information to inform the creation of a comprehensive support center to address the challenges identified. Pilot study data were collected from two sources including focus group discussions and survey. The survey was administered to all students enrolled in college credit classes at the college and two focus group discussions were held in 2017 spring semester. The result of the survey provided the preliminary data on FBS and collected information from those interested in further research participation via focus group discussions. Data were analyzed using suggested methods of analysis by Moustakas (1994) and Creswell (2007).Using the College Impact Model and Socio-cultural theory as a framework, this pilot study found that foreign-born students experience social, academic, personal, organizational, and mentorship challenges. Based on participants' recommendations, the conclusion is for the college to provide more opportunities to engage with both faculty, staff, native students, and other FBS; provide proper advising; provide avenues for cultural engagement for all; provide financial advising; consolidate and publicize all resources available to support students at the college (such as information regarding the honors society, volunteer society…); offer formal and informal English classes to FBS; hire qualified staff with proper training to each department (for example, placement services, advisors…); and hire bi/tri- lingual staff. In phase II of this dissertation, an Academic and Social Engagement Center (ASEC) was created as a comprehensive support center for foreign-born students. It is the intent of the researcher that the findings from this study will inform and provide clear direction for programs and policy implementations that will enhance the success of foreign-born students at Victory State College.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2017
- Identifier
- CFE0006798, ucf:51820
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006798
- Title
- America at the crossroads: Postwar problems and communist policy.
- Creator
-
Dennis, Eugene
- Date Issued
- 1945
- Identifier
- 369655, CFDT369655, ucf:5468
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/FCLA/DT/369655
- Title
- AN EXAMINATION OF CENTRAL ASIAN GEOPOLITICS THROUGH THE EXPECTED UTILITY MODEL: THE NEW GREAT GAME.
- Creator
-
Stutte, Corey, Wan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
The New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data...
Show moreThe New Great Game is a geopolitical competition between regional stakeholders over energy resources in Central Asia. The author seeks to use the expected utility voting model based on Black's median voter theorem for forecasting the New Great Game in Central Asia. To judge the external validity of the voting model, the author uses data from the Correlates of War project data set, to formulate three distinct models based only on the numbers in 1992 and 1993. Capabilities and alliance data were used to develop balance of power positions and compare the outcome of 100 simulations to the actual outcome in 2000 based on Correlates of War project data. This allows us to judge whether the emergence of Russia's weak advantage as well as the continuation of the competition in the New Great Game as of 2000 could have been predicted based on what was known in 1992 and 1993. By using only one year's data to forecast the New Great Game, we are able to eliminate historical and researcher bias and judge the applicability of the model in global policy and strategic analysis.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2009
- Identifier
- CFE0002861, ucf:48088
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002861
