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- Title
- A GASOLINE DEMAND MODEL FOR THE UNITED STATES LIGHT VEHICLE FLEET.
- Creator
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Rey, Diana, Al-Deek, Haitham, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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ABSTRACT The United States is the world's largest oil consumer demanding about twenty five percent of the total world oil production. Whenever there are difficulties to supply the increasing quantities of oil demanded by the market, the price of oil escalates leading to what is known as oil price spikes or oil price shocks. The last oil price shock which was the longest sustained oil price run up in history, began its course in year 2004, and ended in 2008. This last oil price shock...
Show moreABSTRACT The United States is the world's largest oil consumer demanding about twenty five percent of the total world oil production. Whenever there are difficulties to supply the increasing quantities of oil demanded by the market, the price of oil escalates leading to what is known as oil price spikes or oil price shocks. The last oil price shock which was the longest sustained oil price run up in history, began its course in year 2004, and ended in 2008. This last oil price shock initiated recognizable changes in transportation dynamics: transit operators realized that commuters switched to transit as a way to save gasoline costs, consumers began to search the market for more efficient vehicles leading car manufactures to close "gas guzzlers" plants, and the government enacted a new law entitled the Energy Independence Act of 2007, which called for the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator of the light vehicle fleet up to 35 miles per gallon in year 2020. The past trend of gasoline consumption will probably change; so in the context of the problem a gasoline consumption model was developed in this thesis to ascertain how some of the changes will impact future gasoline demand. Gasoline demand was expressed in oil equivalent million barrels per day, in a two steps Ordinary Least Square (OLS) explanatory variable model. In the first step, vehicle miles traveled expressed in trillion vehicle miles was regressed on the independent variables: vehicles expressed in million vehicles, and price of oil expressed in dollars per barrel. In the second step, the fuel consumption in million barrels per day was regressed on vehicle miles traveled, and on the fuel efficiency indicator expressed in miles per gallon. The explanatory model was run in EVIEWS that allows checking for normality, heteroskedasticty, and serial correlation. Serial correlation was addressed by inclusion of autoregressive or moving average error correction terms. Multicollinearity was solved by first differencing. The 36 year sample series set (1970-2006) was divided into a 30 years sub-period for calibration and a 6 year "hold-out" sub-period for validation. The Root Mean Square Error or RMSE criterion was adopted to select the "best model" among other possible choices, although other criteria were also recorded. Three scenarios for the size of the light vehicle fleet in a forecasting period up to 2020 were created. These scenarios were equivalent to growth rates of 2.1, 1.28, and about 1 per cent per year. The last or more optimistic vehicle growth scenario, from the gasoline consumption perspective, appeared consistent with the theory of vehicle saturation. One scenario for the average miles per gallon indicator was created for each one of the size of fleet indicators by distributing the fleet every year assuming a 7 percent replacement rate. Three scenarios for the price of oil were also created: the first one used the average price of oil in the sample since 1970, the second was obtained by extending the price trend by exponential smoothing, and the third one used a longtime forecast supplied by the Energy Information Administration. The three scenarios created for the price of oil covered a range between a low of about 42 dollars per barrel to highs in the low 100's. The 1970-2006 gasoline consumption trend was extended to year 2020 by ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series analysis, leading to a gasoline consumption value of about 10 millions barrels per day in year 2020. This trend line was taken as the reference or baseline of gasoline consumption. The savings that resulted by application of the explanatory variable OLS model were measured against such a baseline of gasoline consumption. Even on the most pessimistic scenario the savings obtained by the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator seem enough to offset the increase in consumption that otherwise would have occurred by extension of the trend, leaving consumption at the 2006 levels or about 9 million barrels per day. The most optimistic scenario led to savings up to about 2 million barrels per day below the 2006 level or about 3 millions barrels per day below the baseline in 2020. The "expected" or average consumption in 2020 is about 8 million barrels per day, 2 million barrels below the baseline or 1 million below the 2006 consumption level. More savings are possible if technologies such as plug-in hybrids that have been already implemented in other countries take over soon, are efficiently promoted, or are given incentives or subsidies such as tax credits. The savings in gasoline consumption may in the future contribute to stabilize the price of oil as worldwide demand is tamed by oil saving policy changes implemented in the United States.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2009
- Identifier
- CFE0002539, ucf:47659
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002539
- Title
- A Multi-Species Single-LED Hazardous Gas Sensor for Commercial Space Applications.
- Creator
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Parupalli, Akshita, Vasu Sumathi, Subith, Ahmed, Kareem, Chow, Louis, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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In the interest of furthering both commercial and government-funded opportunities for deep space exploration, the safety of life and equipment onboard must be absolutely certain. In this regard, the presence of any hazardous gases or combustion events onboard space vehicles must be quickly characterized and detected. Several hazardous gases of interest have absorption features in the mid-infrared range and can be detected with an infrared light source, via the principles of absorption...
Show moreIn the interest of furthering both commercial and government-funded opportunities for deep space exploration, the safety of life and equipment onboard must be absolutely certain. In this regard, the presence of any hazardous gases or combustion events onboard space vehicles must be quickly characterized and detected. Several hazardous gases of interest have absorption features in the mid-infrared range and can be detected with an infrared light source, via the principles of absorption spectroscopy. A non-dispersive infrared (NDIR) sensor that follows these principles has been developed to utilize light-emitting diodes (LEDs) for gas detection and quantification. LEDs contain a particular advantage in this situation because they have low power requirements, are robust and easily adaptable, and they are cheaper than existing laser-based systems. The design has successfully performed several laboratory, environmental chamber, and high-altitude balloon flight tests. The main purpose of these various tests was to place the sensor in challenging environments, examine the effects on sensor performance, and adjust accordingly.The current sensor design utilizes a single 4.2?m LED and a rotating diffraction grating to detect both carbon dioxide (CO2) and nitrous oxide (N2O) within a single scan. These measurements were further validated using two distributed feedback quantum cascade lasers (QCL) centered at 4.25?m and 4.58?m. The sensor collected data on a wavelength range of 4117nm to 4592nm. Mixtures containing the concentrations of the two species of interest varying from 0.2% to 0.8% were analyzed. The integrated absorbance data was calculated for each species and compared with theoretical predictions. The results show that the data follows the expected behavior and correlates better at lower concentrations. Subsequent work on this sensor will focus on increasing the quantity of identifiable gases and on further testing in hazardous environments.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFE0007898, ucf:52752
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007898
- Title
- Light Scattering Property of Gold Nanoparticles with Applications to Biomolecule Detection and Analysis.
- Creator
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Zheng, Tianyu, Huo, Qun, Zou, Shengli, Gesquiere, Andre, Kang, Hyeran, Zhai, Lei, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Gold nanoparticles (AuNPs) have unique optical and chemical properties. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) is an analytical tool used routinely for nanoparticle size measurement. The combined use of AuNPs and DLS has led to a novel analytical assay technology called D2Dx (from diameter to diagnostics). Herein, my dissertation highlights the extended use of D2Dx for biomolecule detection and analysis. Under this general theme, Chapter 1 provides some background information of AuNPs, DLS, the...
Show moreGold nanoparticles (AuNPs) have unique optical and chemical properties. Dynamic light scattering (DLS) is an analytical tool used routinely for nanoparticle size measurement. The combined use of AuNPs and DLS has led to a novel analytical assay technology called D2Dx (from diameter to diagnostics). Herein, my dissertation highlights the extended use of D2Dx for biomolecule detection and analysis. Under this general theme, Chapter 1 provides some background information of AuNPs, DLS, the principle of D2Dx technique and its potential applications. Chapter 2 summarizes a study on the effect of AuNP concentrations and laser power on the hydrodynamic size measurement of AuNPs by DLS. This study demonstrated the multiple scattering effect on DLS analysis, and how to use the exceptionally high sensitivity of DLS in AuNP aggregate detection for bioassay design and development. Chapter 3 explores a cooperative interaction between AuNP and certain proteins in blood serum that are key to the immune system, leading to a novel diagnostic tool that can conveniently monitor the humoral immunity development from neonates to adults and detect active infections in animals. Chapter 4 reports an application of D2Dx technique for acute viral infection detection based on the active immune responses elicited from mouse models infected with influenza virus. Chapter 5 describes another application of D2Dx for prostate cancer detection. The D2Dx assay identifies prostate cancer patients from non-cancer controls with improved specificity and sensitivity than PSA test. Chapter 6 demonstrates the use of AuNPs and DLS for hydrodynamic size measurement of protein disulfide isomerase with two different conformations. Chapter 7 investigates the concentration-dependent self-assembling behavior of ribostamycin through its interaction with AuNPs in aqueous solution. Overall, this dissertation established several lines of applications of using AuNPs and DLS for biomolecular research and in vitro diagnostics.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2018
- Identifier
- CFE0007385, ucf:52056
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007385
- Title
- INVESTIGATIONS ON MORPHOLOGY, SPECTROSCOPY AND NEAR-INFRARED PHOTORESPONSE SENSITIZATION OF CONJUGATED POLYMERS IN ORGANIC PHOTOVOLTAICS.
- Creator
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Hu, Zhongjian, Gesquiere, Andre, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Conjugated polymer architecture and morphology are two of the key factors that determine corresponding opto-electronic device performance. It is well-known that conjugated polymers display a variety of conformations and exhibit aggregation in their materials and even for individual polymer chains. The intrinsic structural heterogeneity of conjugated polymers strongly complicates the active layer morphology and phase separation, which are crucial for photoinduced charge generation and...
Show moreConjugated polymer architecture and morphology are two of the key factors that determine corresponding opto-electronic device performance. It is well-known that conjugated polymers display a variety of conformations and exhibit aggregation in their materials and even for individual polymer chains. The intrinsic structural heterogeneity of conjugated polymers strongly complicates the active layer morphology and phase separation, which are crucial for photoinduced charge generation and transport in polymer based bulk heterojunction-organic photovoltaics device (BHJ-OPVs). Aiming to probe the molecular level correlations between conjugated polymer architecture, morphology and optoelectronic properties, single molecule spectroscopy (SMS) and single particle spectroscopy (SPS) were employed. The molecular level folding properties of conjugated polymers were studied and correlated to the chemical architecture and rigidness of the polymer backbones by means of SMS and single molecule polarization anisotropy imaging. First, a block copolymer consisting of poly(3-hexylthiophene) (P3HT) and fullerene (C60) was investigated due to its potential for forming active layers in OPV devices that exhibit long-term phase stability and efficient exciton dissociation into free charge carriers. It was demonstrated that the grafting of the C60-containing block does not significantly affect the conformation of the backbone of the P3HT block. Next, a series of thiophene based polymers showing different macroscale crystallization behavior were investigated. The rigidness of the conjugated polymer backbones was found to be correlated with the chemical architecture of the molecules. However, even the polymers that show no folding in their respective crystals and are thus expected to be the most rigid, still exhibit folding at the single molecule level. From this work it is clear that besides chemical architecture, intermolecular interactions in the crystal structure also need to be considered. For conjugated polymer materials, in this dissertation specifically the blends of conjugated polymers with fullerenes as found in the active layer of OPVs, the investigation of the molecular level correlations between conjugated polymer architecture, morphology and optoelectronic properties can be prohibitively complex due to the presence of a large number of molecules. Furthermore, in the research presented herein, as well as in the literature, it has been clearly shown that the polymer molecules themselves exhibit severe heterogeneity in their properties (chain morphology, aggregation, optical and electronic properties). Therefore, in order to simplify the structure-property investigations concerning nanodomains in BHJ-OPVs, we developed P3HT/PC60BM (PC60BM: -phenyl-C61-butyric acid methyl ester) composite nanoparticles (NPs). The size of the nanoparticles corresponds with a few polymer and fullerene domains when considering a similarly sized volume in the active layer of OPVs. Single particle spectroscopy combined with this unique nanoparticle material system reveals variations in molecular conformation and aggregation of the conjugated polymer chains upon doping with different weight percentages of fullerene. These newly developed NPs were embedded in a hole-injection device to study the exciton-hole polaron interactions and the charge transfer processes at the interface between a hole-transporting layer and the NPs. Pronounced charge trapping was observed for donor-acceptor blend NPs due to the large amount of photogenerated free charge carriers. Besides fundamental studies on morphology-property relations for thiophene based conjugated polymers, fabrication of BHJ-OPVs based on P3HT and PC60BM was also completed. Low band gap polymer PTB-7 (polybenzo dithiophene-2,6-diyl]thieno thiophenediyl]]) and a near-infrared (NIR) small dye molecule were incorporated into active layers of these P3HT/PC60BM BHJ-OPVs to expand the photoresponse of the devices. The effects of doping the P3HT/PC60BM BHJ-OPVs with PTB-7 and NIR dye on the device performance and film morphology were investigated. The doping of PTB-7 can efficiently extend the photoresponse of the resultant devices into the NIR regime and improve the device performance with respect to the reference (undoped) devices, demonstrating an elegant and pragmatic approach in improving light-harvesting efficiency in BHJ-OPVs.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2011
- Identifier
- CFE0004042, ucf:49167
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004042
- Title
- The mauC gene encodes a versatile signal sequence and redox protein that can be utilized in native and non-native protein expression and electron trnasfer systems.
- Creator
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Dow, Brian, Davidson, Victor, Self, William, Rohde, Kyle, Tatulian, Suren, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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The redox-active type 1 copper site of amicyanin is composed of a single copper ion that is coordinated by two histidines, a methionine, and a cysteine residue. This redox site has a potential of +265 mV at pH7.5. Over ten angstroms away from the copper site resides a tryptophan residue whose fluorescence is quenched by the copper. The effects of the tryptophan on the electron transfer (ET) properties were investigated by site-directed mutagenesis. Lessons learned about the hydrogen bonding...
Show moreThe redox-active type 1 copper site of amicyanin is composed of a single copper ion that is coordinated by two histidines, a methionine, and a cysteine residue. This redox site has a potential of +265 mV at pH7.5. Over ten angstroms away from the copper site resides a tryptophan residue whose fluorescence is quenched by the copper. The effects of the tryptophan on the electron transfer (ET) properties were investigated by site-directed mutagenesis. Lessons learned about the hydrogen bonding network of amicyanin from the aforementioned study were attempted to be used as a model to increase the stability of another beta barrel protein, the immunoglobulin light chain variable domain (VL). In addition, amicyanin was used as an alternative redox partner with MauG. MauG is a diheme protein from the mau gene cluster that catalyzes the biogenesis of the tryptophan tryptophylquinone cofactor of methylamine dehydrogenase (MADH). The amicyanin-MauG complex was used to study the free energy dependence and impact of reorganization energy in biological electron transfer reactions.The sole tryptophan of amicyanin was converted to a tyrosine via site-directed mutagenesis. This mutation had no effect on the electron transfer parameters with its redox partners, methylamine dehydrogenase and cytochrome c-551i. However, the pKa of the pH-dependence of the redox potential of the copper site was shifted +0.5 pH units. This was a result of an additional hydrogen bond between Met51 and the copper coordinating residue His95 in the reduced form of amicyanin. This additional hydrogen bond stabilizes the reduced form. Also, the stability of the copper site and the protein overall was significantly decreased, as seen by the temperature dependence of the visible spectrum of the copper site and the circular dichroism spectrum of the protein. This destabilization is attributed to the loss of an interior, cross-barrel hydrogen bond.The VL is structurally similar to amicyanin, but it does not contain any cross-barrel hydrogen bonds. The importance of the cross-barrel hydrogen bond in stabilizing amicyanin is evident. A homologous bond in VL was attempted to be engineered by using site-directed mutagenesis to insert neutral residues with protonatable groups into the core of the protein. Wild-type (WT) VL was purified from the periplasm and found to be properly folded as determined by circular dichroism and size exclusion chromatography. Mutants were expressed in E. coli using the amicyanin signal sequence for periplasmic expression. Folded mutant protein could not be purified from the periplasm.When amicyanin is used in complex with MauG, it retains the pH-dependence of the redox potential of its copper site due to the looseness of the interprotein interface. The free energy of the reaction was manipulated by variation in pH from pH 5.8 to 8.0. The ET parameters are reorganization energy of 2.34 eV and an electronic coupling constant of 0.6 cm-1. P94A amicyanin has a potential that is 120 mV higher than WT amicyanin and was used to extend the range of the free energy dependence studied. The ET parameters of the reaction of WT and P94A amicyanin with MauG were within error of each other. This is significant because the ET reaction of P94A amicyanin with its natural electron acceptor was not able to be studied due to a kinetic coupling of the ET step with a non-ET step. This kinetic coupling obscured the parameters of the ET step because it is not kinetically distinguishable from the ET step.A Y294H MauG mutant was also studied. This mutation replaced the axial tyrosine ligand of the six-coordinate heme of MauG with a histidine. No reaction is observed with Y294H MauG in its native reaction. However, the high valent oxidation state of the five-coordinate heme of Y294H MauG reacts with reduced amicyanin. The ET rate was analyzed by ET theory to study the high valent heme in Y294H MauG. The reorganization energy of Y294H MauG was calculated to be nearly 20% lower as compared to the same reaction with WT MauG. These results provide insight into the obscured nature of reorganization energy of large redox cofactors in proteins, particularly heme cofactors, as well as to how the active sites of enzymes are optimized to perform long range ET vs catalysis with regard to balancing redox potential and reorganization energy.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2016
- Identifier
- CFE0006100, ucf:51192
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006100
- Title
- LIQUID CRYSTAL OPTICS FOR COMMUNICATIONS, SIGNAL PROCESSING AND 3-D MICROSCOPIC IMAGING.
- Creator
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Khan, Sajjad, Riza, Nabeel, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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This dissertation proposes, studies and experimentally demonstrates novel liquid crystal (LC) optics to solve challenging problems in RF and photonic signal processing, freespace and fiber optic communications and microscopic imaging. These include free-space optical scanners for military and optical wireless applications, variable fiber-optic attenuators for optical communications, photonic control techniques for phased array antennas and radar, and 3-D microscopic imaging. At the heart of...
Show moreThis dissertation proposes, studies and experimentally demonstrates novel liquid crystal (LC) optics to solve challenging problems in RF and photonic signal processing, freespace and fiber optic communications and microscopic imaging. These include free-space optical scanners for military and optical wireless applications, variable fiber-optic attenuators for optical communications, photonic control techniques for phased array antennas and radar, and 3-D microscopic imaging. At the heart of the applications demonstrated in this thesis are LC devices that are non-pixelated and can be controlled either electrically or optically. Instead of the typical pixel-by-pixel control as is custom in LC devices, the phase profile across the aperture of these novel LC devices is varied through the use of high impedance layers. Due to the presence of the high impedance layer, there forms a voltage gradient across the aperture of such a device which results in a phase gradient across the LC layer which in turn is accumulated by the optical beam traversing through this LC device. The geometry of the electrical contacts that are used to apply the external voltage will define the nature of the phase gradient present across the optical beam. In order to steer a laser beam in one angular dimension, straight line electrical contacts are used to form a one dimensional phase gradient while an annular electrical contact results in a circularly symmetric phase profile across the optical beam making it suitable for focusing the optical beam. The geometry of the electrical contacts alone is not sufficient to form the linear and the quadratic phase profiles that are required to either deflect or focus an optical beam. Clever use of the phase response of a typical nematic liquid crystal (NLC) is made such that the linear response region is used for the angular beam deflection while the high voltage quadratic response region is used for focusing the beam. Employing an NLC deflector, a device that uses the linear angular deflection, laser beam steering is demonstrated in two orthogonal dimensions whereas an NLC lens is used to address the third dimension to complete a three dimensional (3-D) scanner. Such an NLC deflector was then used in a variable optical attenuator (VOA), whereby a laser beam coupled between two identical single mode fibers (SMF) was mis-aligned away from the output fiber causing the intensity of the output coupled light to decrease as a function of the angular deflection. Since the angular deflection is electrically controlled, hence the VOA operation is fairly simple and repeatable. An extension of this VOA for wavelength tunable operation is also shown in this dissertation. A LC spatial light modulator (SLM) that uses a photo-sensitive high impedance electrode whose impedance can be varied by controlling the light intensity incident on it, is used in a control system for a phased array antenna. Phase is controlled on the Write side of the SLM by controlling the intensity of the Write laser beam which then is accessed by the Read beam from the opposite side of this reflective SLM. Thus the phase of the Read beam is varied by controlling the intensity of the Write beam. A variable fiber-optic delay line is demonstrated in the thesis which uses wavelength sensitive and wavelength insensitive optics to get both analog as well as digital delays. It uses a chirped fiber Bragg grating (FBG), and a 1xN optical switch to achieve multiple time delays. The switch can be implemented using the 3-D optical scanner mentioned earlier. A technique is presented for ultra-low loss laser communication that uses a combination of strong and weak thin lens optics. As opposed to conventional laser communication systems, the Gaussian laser beam is prevented from diverging at the receiving station by using a weak thin lens that places the transmitted beam waist mid-way between a symmetrical transmitter-receiver link design thus saving prime optical power. LC device technology forms an excellent basis to realize such a large aperture weak lens. Using a 1-D array of LC deflectors, a broadband optical add-drop filter (OADF) is proposed for dense wavelength division multiplexing (DWDM) applications. By binary control of the drive signal to the individual LC deflectors in the array, any optical channel can be selectively dropped and added. For demonstration purposes, microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) digital micromirrors have been used to implement the OADF. Several key systems issues such as insertion loss, polarization dependent loss, wavelength resolution and response time are analyzed in detail for comparison with the LC deflector approach. A no-moving-parts axial scanning confocal microscope (ASCM) system is designed and demonstrated using a combination of a large diameter LC lens and a classical microscope objective lens. By electrically controlling the 5 mm diameter LC lens, the 633 nm wavelength focal spot is moved continuously over a 48 ƒÝm range with measured 3-dB axial resolution of 3.1 ƒÝm using a 0.65 numerical aperture (NA) micro-objective lens. The ASCM is successfully used to image an Indium Phosphide twin square optical waveguide sample with a 10.2 ƒÝm waveguide pitch and 2.3 ƒÝm height and width. Using fine analog electrical control of the LC lens, a super-fine sub-wavelength axial resolution of 270 nm is demonstrated. The proposed ASCM can be useful in various precision three dimensional imaging and profiling applications.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2005
- Identifier
- CFE0000750, ucf:46596
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0000750
- Title
- Real People Acting Out Interpersonal Issues With Paper Representations.
- Creator
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Dufner, Gary, Poindexter, Carla, Raimundi-Ortiz, Wanda, Price, Mark, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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In this thesis body of work, I have interacted and collaborated with five friends to create images exploring human relationships. The subject matter illustrates my friends and myself acting out interpersonal issues with paper representations of one another. It has been my aim to represent my imagery in a campy thematic way. I include a discussion of the images in my body of work from both my perspective and the perspective of my models. The figurative paper images (")stand in(") as...
Show moreIn this thesis body of work, I have interacted and collaborated with five friends to create images exploring human relationships. The subject matter illustrates my friends and myself acting out interpersonal issues with paper representations of one another. It has been my aim to represent my imagery in a campy thematic way. I include a discussion of the images in my body of work from both my perspective and the perspective of my models. The figurative paper images (")stand in(") as representatives of the genders of their subjects.I have explored multiple points of view, constructing, reconstructing and deconstructing complex compositions; experimenting with a variety of focal points; and I have increased my knowledge of lighting and color effects through digital manipulation.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- CFE0005607, ucf:52868
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005607
- Title
- TRAFFIC SAFETY ASSESSMENT OF DIFFERENT TOLL COLLECTION SYSTEMS ON EXPRESSWAYS USING MULTIPLE ANALYTICAL TECHNIQUES.
- Creator
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Abuzwidah, Muamer, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Uddin, Nizam, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Traffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. Crashes have caused extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence. With these consistent efforts, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in many countries have been steadily declining over the last ten...
Show moreTraffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. Crashes have caused extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence. With these consistent efforts, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in many countries have been steadily declining over the last ten years. Nevertheless, according to the World Health Organization, the world still lost 1.24 million lives from road traffic crashes in the year of 2013. And without action, traffic crashes on the roads network are predicted to result in deaths of around 1.9 million people, and up to 50 million more people suffer non-fatal injuries annually, with many incurring a disability as a result of their injury by the year 2020. To meet the transportation needs, the use of expressways (toll roads) has risen dramatically in many countries in the past decade. In fact, freeways and expressways are considered an important part of any successful transportation system. These facilities carry the majority of daily trips on the transportation network. Although expressways offer high level of service, and are considered the safest among other types of roads, traditional toll collection systems may have both safety and operational challenges. The traditional toll plazas still experience many crashes, many of which are severe. Therefore, it becomes more important to evaluate the traffic safety impacts of using different tolling systems. The main focus of the research in this dissertation is to provide an up-to-date safety impact of using different toll collection systems, as well as providing safety guidelines for these facilities to promote safety and enhance mobility on expressways. In this study, an extensive data collection was conducted that included one hundred mainline toll plazas located on approximately 750 miles of expressways in Florida. Multiple sources of data available online maintained by Florida Department of Transportation were utilized to identify traffic, geometric and geographic characteristics of the locations as well as investigating and determination of the most complete and accurate data. Different methods of observational before-after and Cross-Sectional techniques were used to evaluate the safety effectiveness of applying different treatments on expressways. The Before-After method includes Na(&)#239;ve Before-After, Before-After with Comparison Group, and Before-After with Empirical Bayesian. A set of Safety Performance Functions (SPFs) which predict crash frequency as a function of explanatory variables were developed at the aggregate level using crash data and the corresponding exposure and risk factors. Results of the aggregate traffic safety analysis can be used to identify the hazardous locations (hot spots) such as traditional toll plazas, and also to predict crash frequency for untreated sites in the after period in the Before-After with EB method or derive Crash Modification Factors (CMF) for the treatment using the Cross-Sectional method. This type of analysis is usually used to improve geometric characteristics and mainly focus on discovering the risk factors that are related to the total crash frequency, specific crash type, and/or different crash severity levels. Both simple SPFs (with traffic volume only as an explanatory variable) and full SPFs (with traffic volume and additional explanatory variable(s)) were used to estimate the CMFs and only CMFs with lower standard error were recommended.The results of this study proved that safety effectiveness was significantly improved across all locations that were upgraded from Traditional Mainline Toll Plazas (TMTP) to the Hybrid Mainline Toll Plazas (HMTP) system. This treatment significantly reduced total, Fatal-and-Injury (F+I), and Rear-End crashes by 47, 46 and 65 percent, respectively. Moreover, this study examined the traffic safety impact of using different designs, and diverge-and-merge areas of the HMTP. This design combines either express Open Road Tolling (ORT) lanes on the mainline and separate traditional toll collection to the side (design-1), or traditional toll collection on the mainline and separate ORT lanes to the side (design-2). It was also proven that there is a significant difference between these designs, and there is an indication that design-1 is safer and the majority of crashes occurred at diverge-and-merge areas before and after these facilities. However, design-2 could be a good temporary design at locations that have low prepaid transponder (Electronic Toll Collection (ETC)) users. In other words, it is dependent upon the percentage of the ETC users. As this percentage increases, more traffic will need to diverge and merge; thus, this design becomes riskier. In addition, the results indicated significant relationships between the crash frequency and toll plaza types, annual average daily traffic, and drivers' age. The analysis showed that the conversion from TMTP to the All-Electronic Toll Collection (AETC) system resulted in an average reduction of 77, 76, and 67 percent for total, F+I, and Property Damage Only (PDO) crashes, respectively; for rear end and Lane Change Related (LCR) crashes the average reductions were 81 and 75 percent, respectively. The conversion from HMTP to AETC system enhanced traffic safety by reducing crashes by an average of 23, 29 and 19 percent for total, F+I, and PDO crashes; also, for rear end and LCR crashes, the average reductions were 15 and 21 percent, respectively. Based on these results, the use of AETC system changed toll plazas from the highest risk sections on Expressways to be similar to regular segments. Therefore, it can be concluded that the use of AETC system was proven to be an excellent solution to several traffic operations as well as environmental and economic problems. For those agencies that cannot adopt the HMTP and the AETC systems, improving traffic safety at traditional toll plazas should take a priority.This study also evaluates the safety effectiveness of the implementation of High-Occupancy Toll lanes (HOT Lanes) as well as adding roadway lighting to expressways. The results showed that there were no significant impact of the implementation of HOT lanes on the roadway segment as a whole (HOT and Regular Lanes combined). But there was a significant difference between the regular lanes and the HOT lanes at the same roadway segment; the crash count increased at the regular lanes and decreased at the HOT lanes. It was found that the total and F+I crashes were reduced at the HOT lanes by an average of 25 and 45 percent, respectively. This may be attributable to the fact that the HOT lanes became a highway within a highway. Moreover adding roadway lighting has significantly improved traffic safety on the expressways by reducing the night crashes by approximately 35 percent.Overall, the proposed analyses of the safety effectiveness of using different toll collection systems are useful in providing expressway authorities with detailed information on where countermeasures must be implemented. This study provided for the first time an up-to-date safety impact of using different toll collection systems, also developed safety guidelines for these systems which would be useful for practitioners and roadway users.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- CFE0005751, ucf:50100
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005751
