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- Title
- THE RESPONSE OF A GENERAL CIRCULATION CLIMATE MODEL TOHIGH LATITUDE FRESHWATER FORCING IN THE ATLANTIC BASINWITH RESPECT TOTROPICAL CYCLONE-LIKE VORTICES.
- Creator
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Paulis, Victor, Clarke, Thomas, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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The current cycle of climate change along with increases in hurricane activity, changing precipitation patterns, glacial melt, and other extremes of weather has led to interest and research into the global correlation or teleconnection between these events. Examination of historical climate records, proxies and observations is leading to formulation of hypotheses of climate dynamics with modeling and simulation being used to test these hypotheses as well as making projections. Ocean currents...
Show moreThe current cycle of climate change along with increases in hurricane activity, changing precipitation patterns, glacial melt, and other extremes of weather has led to interest and research into the global correlation or teleconnection between these events. Examination of historical climate records, proxies and observations is leading to formulation of hypotheses of climate dynamics with modeling and simulation being used to test these hypotheses as well as making projections. Ocean currents are believed to be an important factor in climate change with thermohaline circulation (THC) fluctuations being implicated in past cycles of abrupt change. Freshwater water discharge into high-latitude oceans attributed to changing precipitation patterns and glacial melt, particularly the North Atlantic, has also been associated with historical abrupt climate changes and is believed to have inhibited or shut down the THC overturning mechanism by diluting saline surface waters transported from the tropics. Here we analyze outputs of general circulation model (GCM) simulations parameterized by different levels of freshwater flux (no flux (control), 0.1 Sverdrup (Sv) and 1.0 Sv) with respect to tropical cyclone-like vortices (TCLVs) to determine any trend in simulated tropical storm frequency, duration, and location relative to flux level, as well as considering the applicability of using GCMs for tropical weather research. Increasing flux levels produced fewer storms and storm days, increased storm duration, a southerly and westerly shift (more pronounced for the 0.1 Sv level) in geographic distribution and increased activity near the African coast (more pronounced for the 1.0 Sv level). Storm intensities and tracks were not realistic compared to observational (real-life) values and is attributed to the GCM resolution not being fine enough to realistically simulate storm (microscale) dynamics.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2007
- Identifier
- CFE0001810, ucf:47339
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001810
- Title
- ISOLATION OF CHARACTERIZATION OF AN ENDEMIC POPULATION OF VIBRIO CHOLERAE IN THE FLORIDA INDIAN RIVER LAGOON.
- Creator
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Ganan, Carolina, Almagro-Moreno, Salvador, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Vibrio choleraeis the etiological agent of the severe diarrheal disease-cholera and natural inhabitant of estuarine and coastal waters. The proximity of the Florida Indian River Lagoon (IRL) to areas affected by recent cholera outbreaks makes this estuary ideal to investigate the environmental dynamics and their potential role in V. cholerae's pathogen emergence. We identified two locations in the IRL, Feller's House UCF Field Station and Shepard Park, as our collection sites. We collected...
Show moreVibrio choleraeis the etiological agent of the severe diarrheal disease-cholera and natural inhabitant of estuarine and coastal waters. The proximity of the Florida Indian River Lagoon (IRL) to areas affected by recent cholera outbreaks makes this estuary ideal to investigate the environmental dynamics and their potential role in V. cholerae's pathogen emergence. We identified two locations in the IRL, Feller's House UCF Field Station and Shepard Park, as our collection sites. We collected samples from three different fractions - water, plankton, and sediment - and recorded data for several water parameters such as pH, temperature, and, turbidity. In the laboratory, we enriched samples in alkaline peptone water and isolated V. choleraeusing widely used selective media Thiosulfate-Citrate Bile Salts-sucrose agar (TCBS) and CHROMagar Vibrio. From our study, we isolated 100 potential V. cholerae isolates, which were confirmed using biochemical tests such as oxidase and Kligler's Iron Agar. V. cholerae has allelic variations in the core genes such as ompU, which provide pre-adaptation to virulence. We investigated the allelic variations within ompU to characterize V. cholerae isolates. We elucidated the sequenced allele of ompU and built a neighboring-joining phylogeny tree to view the differentiation among vibrios. Our findings provide insight into the endemic population of V. cholerae in the Eastern Coast of Florida. Further studies include a screen for additional virulence genes and investigate the role of environmental dynamics on the distribution of V. cholerae and emergence as a human pathogen.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFH2000581, ucf:45680
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000581
- Title
- It's a Conspiracy: Motivated Reasoning and Conspiracy Ideation in the Rejection of Climate Change.
- Creator
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Wycha, Nikilaus, Anthony, Amanda, Carter, Shannon, Gay, David, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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A large disconnect exists between the general public's acceptance of human-caused climate change and the prevailing consensus of actively publishing scientists. Previous research has examined both political and economic motivated reasoning, media influence in print and television, conspiracy ideation as a predictor of science rejection, and the role of the social construction of scientific knowledge in science rejection. Using these previously studied justifications for climate change...
Show moreA large disconnect exists between the general public's acceptance of human-caused climate change and the prevailing consensus of actively publishing scientists. Previous research has examined both political and economic motivated reasoning, media influence in print and television, conspiracy ideation as a predictor of science rejection, and the role of the social construction of scientific knowledge in science rejection. Using these previously studied justifications for climate change rejection as a starting point, this research examines 212 written responses to a prompt at Climate Etc. asking the community to explain their acceptance / rejection of climate change. Using a textual content analysis, this study finds that media choice, motivated reasoning, conspiracy ideation, and the scientific construction of knowledge all play important roles in explanations for climate science rejection. Work and educational background, as well as a reframing of the scientific consensus as a "religion," add new analytical perspectives to the motivated reasoning explanations offered in prior research. This analysis also finds that the explanations for climate science denial given by respondents are often complex, falling into two or more of the explanation types suggesting that science rejection may be a more complex social process than previously thought.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- CFE0005909, ucf:50862
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005909
- Title
- Tourist responses to potential climate change impacts and adaptation measures in Florida's coastal destinations.
- Creator
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Atzori, Roberta, Fyall, Alan, Fjelstul, Jill, Tasci, Asli, Miller, Graham, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Some of the most vulnerable areas across the world have started experiencing the consequences of climate change, with action to deal with it long overdue. Florida, one of the most visited tourist destinations in the world, holds one of the most 'unenviable' positions in terms of its vulnerability to climate change with the effects already visible, particularly on its coastal areas. Climate is one of the major factors in affecting travel motivations and destination choice, and as such the...
Show moreSome of the most vulnerable areas across the world have started experiencing the consequences of climate change, with action to deal with it long overdue. Florida, one of the most visited tourist destinations in the world, holds one of the most 'unenviable' positions in terms of its vulnerability to climate change with the effects already visible, particularly on its coastal areas. Climate is one of the major factors in affecting travel motivations and destination choice, and as such the implications of climate change for tourist behavior and demand patterns are significant. Beside the physical impacts of climate change, society's perception of climate change, and the response to it at various decision-making levels, have become critical issues.This dissertation presents the perspective of tourists who have previously visited Florida, in a hypothetical scenario of changed climatic conditions. It is proposed that existing social representations about climate change, and therefore individuals' attitudes, views and beliefs concerning this phenomenon, need to be taken into account when examining tourists' stated intentions regarding their prospective visitation intentions and potential changes in future tourism demand. Using social representation theory as a theory of reference, this dissertation presents an analysis of visitors' responses to climate change impacts and adaptation measures, in consideration of their attitudes towards climate change. The main purpose of the study was to understand whether, with the implementation of adaptation strategies directed to limit negative impacts of climate change, the likelihood of tourists to return to Florida would improve in comparison with a future in which no action is taken at the state level to address climate change. In this scenario, the filter of social representations in shaping tourists' perspectives was used as a system of explanation of different tourist responses.This study contributes to the tourism and climate change body of knowledge by advancing a further step toward understanding potential responses of tourists in a scenario in which a destination's most appealing climatic and natural resources are impacted by climate change. The existence of a relationship between tourist's visitation intentions and the social representations they hold with respect to climate change offers a different way to look at tourists' stated responses. In fact, this study shows that predicting shifts in tourism demand based on stated visitation intentions requires caution. The findings of this study can encourage future researchers to pursue a more critical way of exploring the meaning behind tourists' stated responses, which could lead to expanding our current understanding of how climate change will transform tourism demand across different destinations.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2016
- Identifier
- CFE0006438, ucf:51477
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006438
- Title
- An Inconclusive Truth: An Evaluation of Speleothem Evidence for Climate Change as a Driver of Ancient Maya Culture Change.
- Creator
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Goldblatt, Benjamin, Chase, Arlen, Chase, Diane, Callaghan, Michael, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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As anthropologists who focus their scholarly attention on the past, archaeologists are interested in examining past changes in human cultures, which can include investigating the role(s) of climatic conditions in shaping them. Paleoclimatology offers the possibility of reconstructing past climates and demonstrating their variability over time, potentially contributing a great deal to archaeology. However, while paleoclimatology may lead to new discoveries about the human past, it may also...
Show moreAs anthropologists who focus their scholarly attention on the past, archaeologists are interested in examining past changes in human cultures, which can include investigating the role(s) of climatic conditions in shaping them. Paleoclimatology offers the possibility of reconstructing past climates and demonstrating their variability over time, potentially contributing a great deal to archaeology. However, while paleoclimatology may lead to new discoveries about the human past, it may also lead to new errors in interpreting it. Cave speleothems are sources of paleoclimatic data that have recently attracted attention in Mesoamerican archaeology, particularly in studies of the Maya region. In order to evaluate past uses of speleothem paleoclimatic records to support archaeological hypotheses, I will describe the strengths and weaknesses of particular datasets, evaluate the arguments that have been advanced for their broad spatial applicability, examine the science behind the spatial variability of precipitation patterns, and consider how the application of speleothem paleoclimatology to Maya archaeology might be improved upon. I hope to make clear that speleothem paleoclimatic records can potentially yield insights into the relationship(s) between Precolumbian climate change and ancient Maya culture change, but must be interpreted with the utmost caution.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2016
- Identifier
- CFE0006311, ucf:51602
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006311
- Title
- ASSESSING AND MODELING MANGROVE FOREST DYNAMICS ALONG THE TEMPERATE-SUBTROPICAL ECOTONE IN EASTERN FLORIDA.
- Creator
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Leitholf, Susan, Weishampel, John, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Mangrove ecosystems are among the world's most endangered biomes; nearly one-half of the overall coverage is threatened by human activity, invasive species, and global climate change. Mangroves play an important ecosystem role through detrital production and by providing: fisheries and wildlife nursery habitat, shoreline protection, a sink for nutrients, carbon, and sediment. In addition to human activity, the Florida mangroves (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa, and Rhizophora...
Show moreMangrove ecosystems are among the world's most endangered biomes; nearly one-half of the overall coverage is threatened by human activity, invasive species, and global climate change. Mangroves play an important ecosystem role through detrital production and by providing: fisheries and wildlife nursery habitat, shoreline protection, a sink for nutrients, carbon, and sediment. In addition to human activity, the Florida mangroves (Avicennia germinans, Laguncularia racemosa, and Rhizophora mangle) are being threatened by the invasive Brazilian pepper (Schinus terebinthifolius). This study was performed along a 261 km stretch of the east coast of Florida from Sebastian Inlet to the northern extent of mangroves, near St. Augustine. It entailed two parts. The first examined the phenology and leafing rates of the four species and attempted to find if there was a relationship between growth and latitude or temperature. Although a correlation between peaks in temperature and phenology was observed for all species, no leafing pattern could be discerned. In terms of mangrove growth for branch diameter, a logarithmic model (y=a + b•log [Initial diameter]) best fitted the data for R. mangle and L. racemosa but neither latitude nor temperature appeared to be important. However, S. terebinthifolius' and A. germinans's branch diameter growth were best represented by a logarithmic model (y=a + b•log [Initial diameter] + c•log x2) that incorporated temperature and latitudinal respectively. In the second part, a simulation model was developed to focus on understanding the relationships between establishment and competition among the three mangrove species and the invading S. terebinthifolius. This model was run under various invasion and/or climate change scenarios to determine possible outcomes under global climate change with or without the presence of S. terebinthifolius. Conclusions were drawn that under all scenarios of invasion, other than sea level rise as part of global climate change, S. terebinthifolius would dominate the landscape if allowed to invade and establish in areas in which it is not currently present although the amount of this response is dependent on the S. terebinthifolius response curves.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2008
- Identifier
- CFE0002187, ucf:47912
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002187
- Title
- Investigating The Late Woodland Climate Of Old Tampa Bay, Florida.
- Creator
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Rogers, Jaime, Barber, Sarah, Williams, Lana, Baudelet, Matthieu, Starbuck, John, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Tampa Bay and the broader Central Gulf Coast region of Florida bear evidence of site reduction and population decline during the onset of the Late Woodland period (AD 500-1000). Concomitantly, Weeden Island culture flourished to the north, while climatic instability loomed to the south. It is unclear if the site abandonments in the area between the two are related to social or cultural change, an unstable climate, or a combination thereof. Interdisciplinary research has provided evidence for...
Show moreTampa Bay and the broader Central Gulf Coast region of Florida bear evidence of site reduction and population decline during the onset of the Late Woodland period (AD 500-1000). Concomitantly, Weeden Island culture flourished to the north, while climatic instability loomed to the south. It is unclear if the site abandonments in the area between the two are related to social or cultural change, an unstable climate, or a combination thereof. Interdisciplinary research has provided evidence for climate change and sea level regression during the sixth and seventh centuries in Southwest Florida, but these variables have yet to be investigated in Tampa Bay. This study implements a multi-scalar sclerochronological analysis to better understand how the climate of Tampa Bay has changed through time. Analyses of low-resolution stable isotopes (13C and 18O) paired with high-resolution trace elements (Mg, Na, Li, Sr) from 50 eastern oyster (Crassostrea virginica) specimens supports climatic instability during the Late Woodland period in Tampa Bay.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFE0007902, ucf:52749
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007902
- Title
- Sex ratios of juvenile green turtles (Chelonia mydas) in three developmental habitats along the east coast of Florida.
- Creator
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Sanchez, Cheryl, Weishampel, John, Ehrhart, Llewellyn, VonHolle, Mary, Wibbels, Thane, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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The concept of temperature dependent sex determination (TSD) has been somewhat of anevolutionary enigma for many decades and has had increased attention with the growingpredictions of a changing climate, particularly in species that are already threatened or endangered. TSD taxa of concern include marine turtles, which go through various life stages covering a range of regions. This, in turn, creates difficulties in addressing basic demographic questions. Secondary sex ratios (from life...
Show moreThe concept of temperature dependent sex determination (TSD) has been somewhat of anevolutionary enigma for many decades and has had increased attention with the growingpredictions of a changing climate, particularly in species that are already threatened or endangered. TSD taxa of concern include marine turtles, which go through various life stages covering a range of regions. This, in turn, creates difficulties in addressing basic demographic questions. Secondary sex ratios (from life stages post-hatchling) were investigated by capturing juvenile green turtles (Chelonia mydas), 22.6-60.9 cm in straight carapace length (SCL), from three developmental areas along the east coast of Florida (a region known to have important juvenile aggregations) by analyzing circulating testosterone levels. All three aggregations exhibited significant female biases with an overall ratio of 3.2:1 (female: male). The probability of a turtle being female increased as the size of the individual decreased. Ratios obtained in this study were slightly less female-biased, but not significantly different, than those observed in the late 1990s. However, they were significantly more biased than those found in a late 1980s pilot study. The shift to significantly female-biased ratios may be beneficial to a recovering population, an evolutionary adaptation, and is common among juvenile aggregations. A more skewed female bias in smaller size classes may be indicative of recent, warmer periods during incubation on the nesting beaches. This female bias could become more exaggerated if temperatures meet future climate warming predictions.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2013
- Identifier
- CFE0004747, ucf:49771
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004747
- Title
- Relating climate change to the nesting phenology and nest environment of marine turtles.
- Creator
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Schwoerer, Monette, VonHolle, Mary, Weishampel, John, Mansfield, Katherine, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Ectotherms (including marine turtles) being especially sensitive to climate, are at risk to the accelerated rate of human-driven climate change. This study addresses two concerns associated with marine turtles and climate change (-) the relationship between the timing of marine turtle nesting and sea surface temperature; and the concern over the feminization of marine turtle populations due to rising sand temperatures. Previous studies of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and green sea...
Show moreEctotherms (including marine turtles) being especially sensitive to climate, are at risk to the accelerated rate of human-driven climate change. This study addresses two concerns associated with marine turtles and climate change (-) the relationship between the timing of marine turtle nesting and sea surface temperature; and the concern over the feminization of marine turtle populations due to rising sand temperatures. Previous studies of loggerhead sea turtles (Caretta caretta) and green sea turtles (Chelonia mydas) have documented the relationship between sea surface temperatures and nesting phenology. Earlier nesting behaviors in both species have been associated with warmer sea surface temperatures. Also, sex determination for marine turtles is temperature-dependent. Due to current sand temperatures, it is estimated that loggerhead (Caretta caretta) nests along the Atlantic coast of Florida already produce over 89% female hatchlings. Using shade to reduce nest temperature and increase the proportion of male hatchlings is one option for mitigating the impacts of climate change on marine turtle sex ratios. In this study, a 21-year (1988-2008) dataset of hawksbill sea turtle (Eretmochelys imbricata) nesting at Buck Island Reef National Monument, St. Croix, USVI was analyzed in a similar manner to previous studies. It was found that warmer sea surface temperatures were associated with longer nesting seasons and later median nesting dates. Additionally, a preliminary sand shading study was conducted in the first field season (2011) with a subsequent loggerhead nest shading study in the following field season (2012). Although hatching success was not significantly impacted, temperatures were significantly reduced in the majority of shaded nests. This practice may not be immediately applicable as a means of managing sex ratios, but it could be used to reverse the temperature effects of nest relocation.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2013
- Identifier
- CFE0005057, ucf:49973
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005057
- Title
- Risk Perceptions of Climate Change in International Environmental Negotiations.
- Creator
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Dellert, Christine, Jacques, Peter, Knox, Claire, Hamann, Kerstin, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Climate change poses an unprecedented risk to global human security and future generations. Yet actions to mitigate or adapt to the changing climate system vary greatly among countries and their constituencies. Despite mounting evidence detailing the economic, social, and ecological risks of climate change, many scholars agree that the greatest threats associated with climate change involve delaying or ignoring necessary action. Using theorizing of (")risk society(") from Ulrich Beck and...
Show moreClimate change poses an unprecedented risk to global human security and future generations. Yet actions to mitigate or adapt to the changing climate system vary greatly among countries and their constituencies. Despite mounting evidence detailing the economic, social, and ecological risks of climate change, many scholars agree that the greatest threats associated with climate change involve delaying or ignoring necessary action. Using theorizing of (")risk society(") from Ulrich Beck and others, this thesis examines how countries, environmental non-governmental organizations (NGOs), and business interests construct the risk of climate change and how their respective discourses conflict in international environmental negotiations. This research uses computer-assisted qualitative data analysis to explore statements submitted by each of these constituencies to the sixteenth Conference of the Parties (COP) for the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) in 2010. Analysis of these texts identifies climate change discourse as crisis or opportunity, in addition to discourses of development, environmentalism, and rights or responsibilities to provide us a better understanding of how we perceive and respond to ecological risk.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- CFE0005602, ucf:50252
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005602
- Title
- Response of Streamflow and Sediment Loading in the Apalachicola River, Florida to Climate and Land Use Land Cover Change.
- Creator
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Hovenga, Paige, Medeiros, Stephen, Wang, Dingbao, Kibler, Kelly, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Located in Florida's panhandle, the Apalachicola River is the southernmost reach of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin. Streamflow and sediment drains to Apalachicola Bay in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, directly influencing the ecology of the region, in particular seagrass and oyster production. The objective of this study is to evaluate the response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use / land cover ...
Show moreLocated in Florida's panhandle, the Apalachicola River is the southernmost reach of the Apalachicola-Chattahoochee-Flint (ACF) River basin. Streamflow and sediment drains to Apalachicola Bay in the Northern Gulf of Mexico, directly influencing the ecology of the region, in particular seagrass and oyster production. The objective of this study is to evaluate the response of runoff and sediment loading in the Apalachicola River under projected climate change scenarios and land use / land cover (LULC) change. A hydrologic model using the Soil Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) was developed for the Apalachicola region to simulate daily discharge and sediment load under present (circa 2000) and future conditions (circa 2100) to understand how the system responds over seasonal and event time frames to changes in climate, LULC, and coupled climate / LULC. These physically-based models incorporate a digital elevation model (DEM), LULC, soil maps, climate data, and management controls. Long Ashton Research Station-Weather Generator (LARS-WG) was used to create downscaled stochastic temperature and precipitation inputs from three Global Climate Models (GCM), each under Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) carbon emission scenarios for A1B, A2, and B1. Projected 2100 LULC data provided by the United States Geological Survey (USGS) EROS Center was incorporated for each corresponding IPCC scenario. Results indicate climate change may induce seasonal shifts to both runoff and sediment loading, acting to extend periods of high flow and minimum sediment loadings or altering the time at which these events occur completely. Changes in LULC showed minimal effects on flow while more sediment loading was associated with increased agriculture and urban areas and decreased forested regions. A nonlinear response for both streamflow and sediment loading was observed by coupling climate and LULC change into the hydrologic model, indicating changes in one may exacerbate or dampen the effects of the other. Peak discharge and sediment loading associated with extreme events showed both increases and decreases in the future, with variability dependent on the GCM used. Similar behavior was observed in the total discharge resulting from extreme events and increased total sediment load was frequently predicted for the A2 and A1B scenarios for simulations involving changes in climate only, LULC only, and both climate and LULC. Output from the individual GCMs predicted differing responses of streamflow and sediment loading to changes in climate on both the seasonal and event scale. Additional region-specific research is needed to better optimize the GCM ensemble and eliminate those that provide erroneous output. In addition, future assessment of the downscaling approach to capture extreme events is required. Findings from this study can be used to further understand climate and LULC implications to the Apalachicola Bay and surrounding region as well as similar fluvial estuaries while providing tools to better guide management and mitigation practices.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2015
- Identifier
- CFE0006326, ucf:51543
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006326
- Title
- Effects of climate change and anthropogenic activities on the Everglades landscape.
- Creator
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Sandhu, Daljit, Singh, Arvind, Wang, Dingbao, Medeiros, Stephen, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
The Everglades has been experiencing major changes, both climatic and anthropogenic, such that the landscape is experiencing additional stresses and forcings leading it away from its natural equilibrium. The land within and surrounding the Everglades has undergone severe modifications that may have detrimental effects on wildlife and natural features, such as rivers and landscape connectivity. Here in this study, the main focus is on understanding and quantifying hydrologic and geomorphic...
Show moreThe Everglades has been experiencing major changes, both climatic and anthropogenic, such that the landscape is experiencing additional stresses and forcings leading it away from its natural equilibrium. The land within and surrounding the Everglades has undergone severe modifications that may have detrimental effects on wildlife and natural features, such as rivers and landscape connectivity. Here in this study, the main focus is on understanding and quantifying hydrologic and geomorphic signatures of climatic and anthropogenic changes on the Everglades landscape. For this, in particular, available data on natural hydrological processes was used, such as rainfall, groundwater elevation, streamflow as well as surface elevations and satellite images for three different regions. These regions are categorized as forested, urban (nearby Everglades regions) and transition (in between forested and urban regions). The results show distinct differences in the statistics of observed hydrologic variables for the three different regions. For example, the probability distribution functions (PDFs) of groundwater elevation for the case of urban region show a shift in mean as well as lower asymmetry as compared to forested regions. In addition, a significant difference in the slopes between smaller and larger scales of the power spectral densities (PSDs) is observed when transitioning from forested to urban. For the case of the streamflow PDFs and PSDs, the opposite trends are observed. Basin properties extracted from digital elevation models (DEMs) of the Everglades reveal that drainage densities increase when moving from the urban to the forested sub-regions, highlighting the topographic and land use/land cover changes that the Everglades has been subjected to in recent years. Finally, computing the interarrival times of extreme ((>)95th percentile) events that suggest power-law behavior, the changes in power-law exponents of the hydrologic processes further highlights how these processes differ spatially and how the landscape has to respond to these changes. Quantifying these observed changes will help develop a better understanding of the Everglades and other wetlands ecosystems for management to future changes and restoration.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2016
- Identifier
- CFE0006495, ucf:51395
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006495
- Title
- POLITICAL ECOLOGY OF MEDICINAL PLANT USE IN RURAL NEPAL: GLOBALIZATION, ENVIRONMENTAL DEGRADATION, AND CULTURAL TRANSFORMATION.
- Creator
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Dovydaitis, Emily, Vajravelu, Rani, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
Prior to the advent of biomedicine, rural communities in Nepal relied on phytochemically active compounds in medicinal plants as their primary source of medicine; however, ethnobotanical practices have shifted over time due to economic, environmental, and sociocultural stimuli. Findings from 2016 fieldwork conducted in Dumrikharka, Nepal and Tutung, Nepal are compared to existing literature to describe the political ecology of medicinal plants in rural Nepal. Anthropogenic climate change...
Show morePrior to the advent of biomedicine, rural communities in Nepal relied on phytochemically active compounds in medicinal plants as their primary source of medicine; however, ethnobotanical practices have shifted over time due to economic, environmental, and sociocultural stimuli. Findings from 2016 fieldwork conducted in Dumrikharka, Nepal and Tutung, Nepal are compared to existing literature to describe the political ecology of medicinal plants in rural Nepal. Anthropogenic climate change threatens individual plant species and ecosystem biodiversity. Globalized markets unabated by weak conservation programs place increasing demands on medicinal plants. As indigenous plants become overharvested and more difficult to access, Nepalis incorporate non-indigenous plants into the local pharmacopeia. Novel use of non-indigenous plants illustrates both the dynamic, resilient nature of traditional medicine systems and a loss of biodiversity. Social changes, including outmigration to other countries, notions of modernity, and preference for pharmaceutical drugs, reduce potential candidates to learn and preserve ethnobotanical knowledge. Waterborne pathogens caused by inadequate sanitation infrastructure continue to endanger Nepali populations. The dearth of clinical facilities throughout rural areas, when coupled with the decline ethnobotanical knowledge and traditional healers, poses a gap in healthcare jeopardizing vulnerable, marginalized populations. These factors reinforce the unequal distribution of resources in one of the world's poorest countries, buttressing power inequalities and economic inequities.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2017
- Identifier
- CFH2000240, ucf:46008
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000240
- Title
- LEADERS AND LAGGARDS: CLIMATE CHANGE MITIGATION POLICY IN THE EUROPEAN UNION AND THE UNITED STATES.
- Creator
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Breuer, Astrid, Bledsoe, Robert, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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In 1997, both the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) signed the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding international treaty with targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, in 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol. This thesis seeks to understand some of the reasons why the European Union embraced the Kyoto Protocol while the United States did not. Using an overall framework of comparative politics, research is undertaken through three lenses. First...
Show moreIn 1997, both the United States (U.S.) and the European Union (EU) signed the Kyoto Protocol, the first legally binding international treaty with targets for greenhouse gas emissions reductions. However, in 2001, the United States withdrew from the Protocol. This thesis seeks to understand some of the reasons why the European Union embraced the Kyoto Protocol while the United States did not. Using an overall framework of comparative politics, research is undertaken through three lenses. First, an overview of public opinion toward global warming and climate change in the U.S. and the EU analyzes potential differences or similarities from surveys carried out in each area. Second, I examine the prevailing political ideology in each polity, with emphasis on the period when climate change arose as a major global challenge. Finally, two case studies examine the theory of environmental federalism and how it might affect climate change policy action. I obtained the following results. Public opinion research has revealed that, on average, the American public is nearly as concerned with climate change as the European public. However, the overarching political ideology in the U.S. was one of conservatism, while that in Europe was one of social democracy, with left and center-left governments, contributing to a greater or lesser degree, and through indirect mechanisms, to the political stances adopted. Finally, the case of Germany shows that member state actions, such as the implementation of ambitious reductions targets, can still play a crucial role in leadership even in the presence of action at the central government level (EU). The California case study shows that state-level efforts can rise to fill a vacuum created by the absence of central government action. In the end, behavior of each polity regarding international climate agreements, particularly the Kyoto Protocol, cannot be explained in simple terms. The complexity of the issues revolving climate change require further interdisciplinary research and collaboration among multiple actors including scientists, policymakers, nongovernmental organizations, and other stakeholders.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2011
- Identifier
- CFH0003840, ucf:44757
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0003840
- Title
- Exploring multi-scale variation of fish community diversity in a dynamic coastal estuary.
- Creator
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Troast, Brittany, Cook, Geoffrey, Walters, Linda, Paperno, Richard, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Examining diversity over multiple spatial and temporal scales affords the opportunity to develop a mechanistic understanding of the factors influencing community diversity dynamics, and how these may shift in a changing world. This thesis first examines multi-decadal fish community diversity metrics across a coastal biogeographic transition zone to quantify changes in species assemblages, assess relationships between fish community diversity and the abiotic environment, and capture potential...
Show moreExamining diversity over multiple spatial and temporal scales affords the opportunity to develop a mechanistic understanding of the factors influencing community diversity dynamics, and how these may shift in a changing world. This thesis first examines multi-decadal fish community diversity metrics across a coastal biogeographic transition zone to quantify changes in species assemblages, assess relationships between fish community diversity and the abiotic environment, and capture potential shifts in the location of a putative biogeographic break. Results of this chapter indicate not only a change in fish community composition, but also a shift in the location of the biogeographic transition zone. If these trends continue, a potential 16-62km shift northward by the year 2100 could occur. Understanding the novel species assemblages these shifts could result in is necessary for the future management of this area. Next this thesis examines diversity on a local scale, assessing the response of the fish community to restoration of oyster reefs and coastal wetlands which act as essential fish habitat. Results support the idea that fish community composition at restored oyster reefs is more similar to those of live reefs than dead reefs, however, results of abundance and diversity analyses were equivocal. Living shoreline analyses produced no differences between control and restored sites before or after restoration. Possible explanations for lack of clear trends in the fish community could be explained by the presence of other essential fish habitats in the area, scale of restoration, and length of monitoring. This thesis explores diversity on a multitude of spatial and temporal scales to better understand how fish communities respond to change and generates fundamental knowledge that can improve our ability to conserve and manage coastal communities and better inform the development of ecosystem-based management strategies.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFE0007905, ucf:52753
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007905
- Title
- Miami-Dade Task Force: A Content Analysis of How Coastal Communities View Sea Level Rise as a Threat.
- Creator
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Alvaro, Francisco, Jacques, Peter, Knox, Claire, Hinkle, Ross, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Sea level rise (SLR) has become a serious threat for coastal communities in recent years. Many communities, including South Florida, are already having the security of their daily lives impacted as climate change causes SLR and other environmental impacts to worsen. This study reviews the Miami-Dade Sea Level Rise Task Force Report to determine how this coastal county government views SLR as a threat. Using mixed content analysis to analyze the report qualitatively and quantitatively, the...
Show moreSea level rise (SLR) has become a serious threat for coastal communities in recent years. Many communities, including South Florida, are already having the security of their daily lives impacted as climate change causes SLR and other environmental impacts to worsen. This study reviews the Miami-Dade Sea Level Rise Task Force Report to determine how this coastal county government views SLR as a threat. Using mixed content analysis to analyze the report qualitatively and quantitatively, the Task Force's recommendations are categorized based on their focus on security, infrastructure, economics, and the environment. One finds the concerns of the people to maintain their property and infrastructure, as well as their access to water and other basic needs, as insurance costs spike and funding becomes more difficult to obtain. Policies will have to be revised using updated scientific studies, modeling, and mapping to mitigate against the worse-case scenarios.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2019
- Identifier
- CFE0007427, ucf:52705
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007427
- Title
- Groundwater modeling for assessing the impacts of natural hazards in east-central Florida.
- Creator
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Xiao, Han, Wang, Dingbao, Nam, Boo Hyun, Medeiros, Stephen, Mayo, Talea, Hall, Carlton, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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In coastal east-central Florida (ECF) , the low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier islands have a high risk of being inundated by seawater due to climate change effects such as sea-level rise, changing rainfall patterns, and intensified storm surge from hurricanes., This will produce saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer from infiltration of overtopping saltwater. In the inland ECF region, sinkhole occurrence is recognized as the primary geologic hazard causing massive financial...
Show moreIn coastal east-central Florida (ECF) , the low-lying coastal alluvial plains and barrier islands have a high risk of being inundated by seawater due to climate change effects such as sea-level rise, changing rainfall patterns, and intensified storm surge from hurricanes., This will produce saltwater intrusion into the coastal aquifer from infiltration of overtopping saltwater. In the inland ECF region, sinkhole occurrence is recognized as the primary geologic hazard causing massive financial losses to society in the past several decades. The objectives of this dissertation are to: (1) evaluate the impacts of sea-level rise and intensified storm surge on the extent of saltwater intrusion into the coastal ECF region; (2) assess the risk level of sinkhole occurrence in the inland ECF region. In this dissertation, numerical modeling methods are used to achieve these objectives. Several three-dimensional groundwater flow and salinity transport models, focused on the coastal ECF region, are developed and calibrated to simulate impacts of sea-level rise and storm surge based on various sea-level rise scenarios. A storm surge model is developed to quantify the future extent of saltwater intrusion. Several three-dimensional groundwater flow models, focused on the inland ECF region, are developed and calibrated to simulate the spatial variation of groundwater recharge rate for analyzing the risk level of sinkhole occurrence in the geotypical central Florida karst terrains. Results indicate that sea-level rise and storm surge play a dominant role in causing saltwater intrusion, and the risk of sinkhole occurrence increases linearly with an increase in recharge rate while the timing of sinkhole occurrence is highly related to the temporal variation of the difference of groundwater level between confined and unconfined aquifers. The outcome will contribute to ongoing research focused on forecasting the impacts of climate change on the risk level of natural hazards in ECF region.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2017
- Identifier
- CFE0007298, ucf:52160
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007298
- Title
- Modeling Annual Water Balance in The Seasonal Budyko Framework.
- Creator
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Alimohammadi, Negin, Wang, Dingbao, Hagen, Scott, Madani Larijani, Kaveh, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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In this thesis, the role of soil water storage change on the annual water balance is evaluated based on observations at a large number of watersheds located in a spectrum of climate regions, and an annual water balance model is developed at the seasonal scale based on Budyko hypthesis. The annual water storage change is quantified based on water balance closure given the available data of precipitation, runoff, and evaporation estimated from remote sensing data and meteorology reanalysis. The...
Show moreIn this thesis, the role of soil water storage change on the annual water balance is evaluated based on observations at a large number of watersheds located in a spectrum of climate regions, and an annual water balance model is developed at the seasonal scale based on Budyko hypthesis. The annual water storage change is quantified based on water balance closure given the available data of precipitation, runoff, and evaporation estimated from remote sensing data and meteorology reanalysis. The responses of annual runoff, evaporation, and storage change to the interannual variability of precipitation and potential evaporation are then analyzed. Both runoff and evaporation sensitivities to potential evaporation are higher under energy-limited conditions, but storage change seems to be more sensitive to potential evaporation under the conditions in which water and energy are balanced. Runoff sensitivity to precipitation is higher under energy-limited conditions; but both evaporation and storage change sensitivities to precipitation are higher under water-limited conditions. Therefore, under energy-limited conditions, most of precipitation variability is transferred to runoff variability; but under water-limited conditions, most of precipitation variability is transferred to storage change and some of precipitation variability is transferred to evaporation variability. The main finding of this part is that evaporation variability will be overestimated by assuming negligible storage change in annual water balance, particularly under water-limited conditions. Budyko framework which expresses partitioning of water supply at the mean annual scale, is adapted to be applicable in modeling water cycle in short terms i.e., seasonal and interannual scales. Seasonal aridity index is defined as the ratio of seasonal potential evaporation and the difference between precipitation and storage change. The seasonal water balance is modeled by using a Budyko-type curve with horizontal shifts which leads prediction of seasonal and annual storage changes and evaporation if precipitation, potential evaporation, and runoff data are available.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2012
- Identifier
- CFE0004509, ucf:49283
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004509
- Title
- Climate Change Impacts on Rainfed Corn Production in Malawi.
- Creator
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Msowoya, Kondwani, Madani Larijani, Kaveh, Wang, Dingbao, Xanthopoulos, Petros, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Agriculture is the mainstay of the economy in Malawi and accounts for 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90% of the export revenues. Corn (maize) is the major cereal crop grown as staple food under rainfed conditions, covers over 92% of the total agricultural area, and contributes 54% of the caloric intake. Corn production is the principle occupation and major source of income for over 85% of the total population in Malawi. Issues of hunger and food insecurity for the entire nation...
Show moreAgriculture is the mainstay of the economy in Malawi and accounts for 40% of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) and 90% of the export revenues. Corn (maize) is the major cereal crop grown as staple food under rainfed conditions, covers over 92% of the total agricultural area, and contributes 54% of the caloric intake. Corn production is the principle occupation and major source of income for over 85% of the total population in Malawi. Issues of hunger and food insecurity for the entire nation are associated with corn scarcity and low production. Global warming is expected to cause climate change in Malawi, including changes in temperature and precipitation amounts and patterns. These climate changes are expected to affect corn production in Malawi. This study evaluates the impacts of climate change on rainfed corn production in Malawi. Lilongwe District, with about 1,045 square miles of agriculture area, has been selected as a representative area. First, outputs of 15 General Circulation Models (GCMs) under different emission scenarios are statistically downscaled. For this purpose, a weather generator (LARS-WG) is calibrated and validated for the study area and daily precipitation as well as minimum and maximum temperature are projected for 15 GCMs for three time horizons of 2020s, 2050s and 2090s. Probability assessment of bounded range with known distributions is used to deal with the uncertainties of GCMs' outputs. These GCMs outputs are weighted by considering the ability of each model to simulate historical records. AquaCrop, a new model developed by FAO that simulates the crop yield response to water deficit conditions, is employed to assess potential rainfed corn production in the study area with and without climate change. Study results indicate an average temperature increase of 0.52 to 0.94oC, 1.26 to 2.20oC and 1.78 to 3.58oC in the near-term (2020s), mid-term (2050s) and long-term (2090s) future, respectively. The expected changes in precipitation during these periods are -17 to 11%, -26 to 0%, and -29 to -3%. Corn yields are expected to change by -8.11 to 0.53%, -7.25 to -14.33%, and -13.19 to -31.86%, during the same time periods. The study concludes with suggestion of some adaptation strategies that the Government of Malawi could consider to improve national food security under climate change.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2013
- Identifier
- CFE0005036, ucf:50011
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005036
- Title
- Integrated Remote Sensing and Forecasting of Regional Terrestrial Precipitation with Global Nonlinear and Nonstationary Teleconnection Signals Using Wavelet Analysis.
- Creator
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Mullon, Lee, Chang, Ni-bin, Wang, Dingbao, Wanielista, Martin, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
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Global sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on terrestrial climate dynamics throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that teleconnections can be used for climate prediction across a wide region at sub-continental scales. Yet these studies tend to have large uncertainties in...
Show moreGlobal sea surface temperature (SST) anomalies have a demonstrable effect on terrestrial climate dynamics throughout the continental U.S. SST variations have been correlated with greenness (vegetation densities) and precipitation via ocean-atmospheric interactions known as climate teleconnections. Prior research has demonstrated that teleconnections can be used for climate prediction across a wide region at sub-continental scales. Yet these studies tend to have large uncertainties in estimates by utilizing simple linear analyses to examine chaotic teleconnection relationships. Still, non-stationary signals exist, making teleconnection identification difficult at the local scale. Part 1 of this research establishes short-term (10-year), linear and non-stationary teleconnection signals between SST at the North Atlantic and North Pacific oceans and terrestrial responses of greenness and precipitation along multiple pristine sites in the northeastern U.S., including (1) White Mountain National Forest (-) Pemigewasset Wilderness, (2) Green Mountain National Forest (-) Lye Brook Wilderness and (3) Adirondack State Park (-) Siamese Ponds Wilderness. Each site was selected to avoid anthropogenic influences that may otherwise mask climate teleconnection signals. Lagged pixel-wise linear teleconnection patterns across anomalous datasets found significant correlation regions between SST and the terrestrial sites. Non-stationary signals also exhibit salient co-variations at biennial and triennial frequencies between terrestrial responses and SST anomalies across oceanic regions in agreement with the El Nino Southern Oscillation (ENSO) and North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) signals. Multiple regression analysis of the combined ocean indices explained up to 50% of the greenness and 42% of the precipitation in the study sites. The identified short-term teleconnection signals improve the understanding and projection of climate change impacts at local scales, as well as harness the interannual periodicity information for future climate projections. Part 2 of this research paper builds upon the earlier short-term study by exploring a long-term (30-year) teleconnection signal investigation between SST at the North Atlantic and Pacific oceans and the precipitation within Adirondack State Park in upstate New York. Non-traditional teleconnection signals are identified using wavelet decomposition and teleconnection mapping specific to the Adirondack region. Unique SST indices are extracted and used as input variables in an artificial neural network (ANN) prediction model. The results show the importance of considering non-leading teleconnection patterns as well as the known teleconnection patterns. Additionally, the effects of the Pacific Ocean SST or the Atlantic Ocean SST on terrestrial precipitation in the study region were compared with each other to deepen the insight of sea-land interactions. Results demonstrate reasonable prediction skill at forecasting precipitation trends with a lead time of one month, with r values of 0.6. The results are compared against a statistical downscaling approach using the HadCM3 global circulation model output data and the SDSM statistical downscaling software, which demonstrate less predictive skill at forecasting precipitation within the Adirondacks.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2014
- Identifier
- CFE0005535, ucf:50319
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005535
