Current Search:   Variable Speed Limits (x)

View All Items

  • CSV Spreadsheet
(1 - 8 of 8)
EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF COMBINING RAMP METERING AND VARIABLE SPEED LIMIT STRATEGIES FOR ALLEVIATING REAL-TIME CRASH RISK ON URBAN FREEWAYS
Title
EXPLORING THE POTENTIAL OF COMBINING RAMP METERING AND VARIABLE SPEED LIMIT STRATEGIES FOR ALLEVIATING REAL-TIME CRASH RISK ON URBAN FREEWAYS.
Creator
Haleem, Kirolos, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Research recently conducted at the University of Central Florida involving crashes on Interstate-4 in Orlando, Florida has led to the creation of new statistical and neural networks models that are capable of determining the crash risk on the freeway (Abdel-Aty et al., 2004; 2005, Pande and Abdel-Aty, 2006). These models are able to calculate rear-end and lane-change crash risks along the freeway in real-time through the use of static information at various locations along the freeway as well...
Show moreResearch recently conducted at the University of Central Florida involving crashes on Interstate-4 in Orlando, Florida has led to the creation of new statistical and neural networks models that are capable of determining the crash risk on the freeway (Abdel-Aty et al., 2004; 2005, Pande and Abdel-Aty, 2006). These models are able to calculate rear-end and lane-change crash risks along the freeway in real-time through the use of static information at various locations along the freeway as well as real-time traffic data obtained by loop detectors. Since these models use real-time traffic data, they are capable of calculating rear-end and lane-change crash risk values as the traffic flow conditions are changing on the freeway. The objective of this study is to examine the potential benefits of combining two ITS strategies (Ramp Metering and Variable Speed Limits strategies) for reducing the crash risk (both rear-end and lane-change crash risks) along the I-4 freeway. Following this aspect, a 36.25-mile section of I-4 running though Orlando, FL was simulated using the PARAMICS micro-simulation program. Gayah (2006) used the same network to examine the potential benefits of two ITS strategies separately (Route Diversion and Ramp Metering) for reducing the crash risk along the freeway by changing traffic flow parameters. Cunningham (2007) also used the same network to examine the potential benefits of implementing Variable Speed Limits strategy for reducing the crash risk along the freeway. Since the same network is used, the calibration and validation procedures used in this study are the same as these previous two studies. This study simulates three volume loading scenarios on the I-4 freeway. These are 60, 80 and 90 percent loading scenarios. From the final experimental design for the 60 % loading, it was concluded that implementing VSL strategy only was more beneficial to the network than either implementing Ramp Metering everywhere (through the whole network) in conjunction with VSL everywhere or implementing Ramp Metering downtown (in downtown areas only) in conjunction with VSL everywhere. This was concluded from the comparison of the results of this study with the results from Cunningham (2007). However, either implementing Ramp Metering everywhere or downtown in conjunction with VSL everywhere showed safety benefits across the simulated network as well as a reduction in the total travel time. The best case for implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere was using a homogeneous speed zone threshold of 2.5 mph, a speed change distance of half speed zone and a speed change time of 5 minutes in conjunction with a 60 seconds cycle length for the Zone algorithm, a critical occupancy of 0.17 and a 30 seconds cycle length for the ALINEA algorithm. And the best case for implementing Ramp Metering downtown in conjunction with VSL everywhere was using a homogeneous speed zone threshold of 2.5 mph, a speed change distance of half speed zone and a speed change time of 10 minutes in conjunction with a 60 seconds cycle length for the Zone algorithm, a critical occupancy of 0.17 and a 30 seconds cycle length for the ALINEA algorithm. For the 80 % loading, it was concluded that either implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere or implementing Ramp Metering downtown in conjunction with VSL everywhere was more beneficial to the network than implementing VSL strategy only. This was also concluded from the comparison of the results of this study with the results from Cunningham (2007). Moreover, it was concluded that implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere showed higher safety benefits across the simulated network than implementing Ramp Metering downtown in conjunction with VSL everywhere. Also, both of them increased the total travel time a bit, but this was deemed acceptable. Additionally, both of them had successive fluctuations and variations in the average lane-change crash risk vs. time step. The best case for implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere was using a homogeneous speed zone threshold of 5 mph, a speed change distance of half speed zone and a speed change time of 30 minutes in conjunction with a 60 seconds cycle length for the Zone algorithm, a critical occupancy of 0.17 and a 30 seconds cycle length for the ALINEA algorithm. And the best case for implementing Ramp Metering downtown in conjunction with VSL everywhere was using a homogeneous speed zone threshold of 5 mph, a speed change distance of half speed zone and a speed change time of 30 minutes in conjunction with a 60 seconds cycle length for the Zone algorithm, a critical occupancy of 0.17 and a 30 seconds cycle length for the ALINEA algorithm. Searching for the best way to implement both Ramp Metering and VSL strategies in conjunction with each other, an indepth investigation was conducted in order to remove the fluctuations and variations in the crash risk with time step (through the entire simulation period). The entire simulation period is 3 hours, and each time step is 5 minutes, so there are 36 time steps representing the entire simulation period. This indepth investigation led to the idea of not implementing VSL at consecutive zones (using either a gap of one zone or more). Then this idea was applied for the best case of implementing Ramp Metering and VSL everywhere at the 80 % loading, and the successive fluctuations and variations in the crash risk with time step were removed. Moreover, much better safety benefits were found. So, this confirms that this idea was very beneficial to the network. For the 90 % loading, it was concluded that implementing Ramp Metering strategy only (Zone algorithm in downtown areas, and ALINEA algorithm in non downtown areas) was more beneficial to the network than implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere. This was concluded from the comparison of the results of this study with the results from Gayah (2006). However, implementing Ramp Metering everywhere in conjunction with VSL everywhere showed safety benefits across the simulated network as well as a reduction in the total travel time. The best case was using a homogeneous speed zone threshold of 2.5 mph, a speed change distance of the entire speed zone and a speed change time of 20 minutes in conjunction with a 60 seconds cycle length for the Zone algorithm, a critical occupancy of 0.17 and a 30 seconds cycle length for the ALINEA algorithm. In summary, Ramp Metering was more beneficial at congested situations, while Variable Speed Limits were more beneficial at free-flow conditions. At conditions approaching congestion, the combination of Ramp Metering and Variable Speed Limits produced the best benefits. These results illustrate the significant potential of ITS strategies to improve the safety and efficiency of urban freeways.
Show less
Date Issued
2007
Identifier
CFE0001840, ucf:47363
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001840
EVALUATING RAMP METERING AND VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS TO REDUCE CRASH POTENTIAL ON CONGESTED FREEWAYS USING MICRO-SIMULATION
Title
EVALUATING RAMP METERING AND VARIABLE SPEED LIMITS TO REDUCE CRASH POTENTIAL ON CONGESTED FREEWAYS USING MICRO-SIMULATION.
Creator
Dhindsa, Albinder, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Recent research at UCF into defining surrogate measures for identifying crash prone conditions on freeways has led to the introduction of several statistical models which can flag such conditions with a good degree of accuracy. Outputs from these models have the potential to be used as real-time safety measures on freeways. They may also act as the basis for the evaluation of several intervention strategies that might help in the mitigation of risk of crashes. Ramp Metering and Variable Speed...
Show moreRecent research at UCF into defining surrogate measures for identifying crash prone conditions on freeways has led to the introduction of several statistical models which can flag such conditions with a good degree of accuracy. Outputs from these models have the potential to be used as real-time safety measures on freeways. They may also act as the basis for the evaluation of several intervention strategies that might help in the mitigation of risk of crashes. Ramp Metering and Variable Speed Limits are two approaches which have the potential of becoming effective implementation strategies for improving the safety conditions on congested freeways. This research evaluates both these strategies in different configurations and attempts to quantify their effect on risk of crash on a 9-mile section of Interstate-4 in the Orlando metropolitan region. The section consists of 17 Loop Detector stations, 11 On-ramps and 10 off-ramps. PARAMICS micro-simulation is used as the tool for modeling the freeway section. The simulated network is calibrated and validated for 5 minute average flows and speeds using loop detector data. Feedback Ramp Metering algorithm, ALINEA, is used for controlling access from up to 7 on-ramps. Variable Speed Limits are implemented based on real-time speed conditions prevailing in the whole 9-mile section. Both these strategies are tested separately as well as collectively to determine the individual effects of all the parameters involved. The results have been used to formulate and recommend the best possible strategy for minimizing the risk of crashes on the corridor. The study concluded that Ramp Metering improves the conditions on the freeway in terms of safety by decreasing variance in speeds and decreasing average occupancy. A safety benefit index was developed for quantifying the reduction in crash risk and it indicated that an optimal implementation strategy might produce benefits of up to 55%. The condition on the freeway section improved with increase in the number of metered ramps. It was also observed that shorter signal cycles for metered ramps were more suitable for metering multiple ramps. Ramp Metering at multiple locations also decreased the segment wide travel-times by 5% and was even able to offset the delays incurred by drivers at the metered on-ramps. Variable Speed Limits (VSL) were individually not as effective as ramp metering but when implemented along with ramp metering, they were found to further improve the safety on the freeway section under consideration. By means of a detailed experimental design it was observed that the best strategy for introducing speed limit changes was to raise the speed limits downstream of the location of interest by 5 mph and not affecting the speed limits upstream. A coordinated strategy - involving simultaneous application of VSL and Ramp Metering - provided safety benefits of up to 56 % for the study section according to the safety benefit index. It also improved the average speeds on the network besides decreasing the overall network travel time by as much as 21%.
Show less
Date Issued
2005
Identifier
CFE0000913, ucf:46741
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0000913
Improving Safety under Reduced Visibility Based on Multiple Countermeasures and Approaches including Connected Vehicles
Title
Improving Safety under Reduced Visibility Based on Multiple Countermeasures and Approaches including Connected Vehicles.
Creator
Wu, Yina, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Lee, JaeYoung, Eluru, Naveen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The effect of low visibility on both crash occurrence and severity is a major concern in the traffic safety field. Different approaches were utilized in this research to analyze the effects of fog on traffic safety and evaluate the effectiveness of different fog countermeasures. First, a (")Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)(") was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash...
Show moreThe effect of low visibility on both crash occurrence and severity is a major concern in the traffic safety field. Different approaches were utilized in this research to analyze the effects of fog on traffic safety and evaluate the effectiveness of different fog countermeasures. First, a (")Crash Risk Increase Indicator (CRII)(") was proposed to explore the differences of crash risk between fog and clear conditions. A binary logistic regression model was applied to link the increase of crash risk with traffic flow characteristics. Second, a new algorithm was proposed to evaluate the rear-end crash risk under fog conditions. Logistic and negative binomial models were estimated in order to explore the relationship between the potential of rear-end crashes and the reduced visibility together with other traffic parameters. Moreover, the effectiveness of real-time fog warning systems was assessed by quantifying and characterizing drivers' speed adjustments through driving simulator experiments. A hierarchical assessment concept was suggested to explore the drivers' speed adjustment maneuvers. Two linear regression models and one hurdle beta regression model were estimated for the indexes. Also, another driving simulator experiment was conducted to explore the effectiveness of Connected-Vehicles (CV) crash warning systems on the drivers' awareness of the imminent situation ahead to take timely crash avoidance action(s). Finally, a micro-simulation experiment was also conducted to evaluate the safety benefits of a proposed Variable Speed limit (VSL) strategy and CV technologies. The proposed VSL strategy and CV technologies were implemented and tested for a freeway section through the micro-simulation software VISSIM. The results of the above mentioned studies showed the impact of reduced visibility on traffic safety, and the effectiveness of different fog countermeasures.
Show less
Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006928, ucf:51704
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006928
EXAMINING DYNAMIC VARIABLE SPEED LIMIT STRATEGIES FOR THE REDUCTION OF REAL-TIME CRASH RISK ON FREEWAYS
Title
EXAMINING DYNAMIC VARIABLE SPEED LIMIT STRATEGIES FOR THE REDUCTION OF REAL-TIME CRASH RISK ON FREEWAYS.
Creator
Cunningham, Ryan, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Recent research at the University of Central Florida involving crashes on Interstate-4 in Orlando, Florida has led to the creation of new statistical models capable of determining the crash risk on the freeway (Abdel-Aty et al., 2004; 2005, Pande and Abdel-Aty, 2006). These models are able to calculate the rear-end and lane-change crash risks along the freeway in real-time through the use of static information at various locations along the freeway as well as the real-time traffic data...
Show moreRecent research at the University of Central Florida involving crashes on Interstate-4 in Orlando, Florida has led to the creation of new statistical models capable of determining the crash risk on the freeway (Abdel-Aty et al., 2004; 2005, Pande and Abdel-Aty, 2006). These models are able to calculate the rear-end and lane-change crash risks along the freeway in real-time through the use of static information at various locations along the freeway as well as the real-time traffic data obtained by loop detectors. Since these models use real-time traffic data, they are capable of calculating rear-end and lane-change crash risk values as the traffic flow conditions are changing on the freeway. The objective of this study is to examine the potential benefits of variable speed limit implementation techniques for reducing the crash risk along the freeway. Variable speed limits is an ITS strategy that is typically used upstream of a queue in order to reduce the effects of congestion. By lowering the speeds of the vehicles approaching a queue, more time is given for the queue to dissipate from the front before it continues to grow from the back. This study uses variable speed limit strategies in a corridor-wide attempt to reduce rear-end and lane-change crash risks where speed differences between upstream and downstream vehicles are high. The idea of homogeneous speed zones was also introduced in this study to determine the distance over which variable speed limits should be implemented from a station of interest. This is unique since it is the first time a dynamic distance has been considered for variable speed limit implementation. Several VSL strategies were found to successfully reduce the rear-end and lane-change crash risks at low-volume traffic conditions (60% and 80% loading conditions). In every case, the most successful treatments involved the lowering of upstream speed limits by 5 mph and the raising of downstream speed limits by 5 mph. In the free-flow condition (60% loading), the best treatments involved the more liberal threshold for defining homogeneous speed zones (5 mph) and the more liberal implementation distance (entire speed zone), as well as a minimum time period of 10 minutes. This treatment was actually shown to significantly reduce the network travel time by 0.8%. It was also shown that this particular implementation strategy (lowering upstream, raising downstream) is wholly resistant to the effects of crash migration in the 60% loading scenario. In the condition approaching congestion (80% loading), the best treatment again involved the more liberal threshold for homogeneous speed zones (5 mph), yet the more conservative implementation distance (half the speed zone), along with a minimum time period of 5 minutes. This particular treatment arose as the best due to its unique capability to resist the increasing effects of crash migration in the 80% loading scenario. It was shown that the treatments implementing over half the speed zone were more robust against crash migration than other treatments. The best treatment exemplified the greatest benefit in reduced sections and the greatest resistance to crash migration in other sections. In the 80% loading scenario, the best treatment increased the network travel time by less than 0.4%, which is deemed acceptable. No treatment was found to successfully reduce the rear-end and lane-change crash risks in the congested traffic condition (90% loading). This is attributed to the fact that, in the congested state, the speed of vehicles is subject to the surrounding traffic conditions and not to the posted speed limit. Therefore, changing the posted speed limit does not affect the speed of vehicles in a desirable manner. These conclusions agree with Dilmore (2005).
Show less
Date Issued
2007
Identifier
CFE0001723, ucf:47309
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001723
MOBILITY AND SAFETY EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED DYNAMIC MERGE AND SPEED CONTROL STRATEGIES IN WORK ZONES
Title
MOBILITY AND SAFETY EVALUATION OF INTEGRATED DYNAMIC MERGE AND SPEED CONTROL STRATEGIES IN WORK ZONES.
Creator
Zaidi, Syed, Radwan, Essam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
There has been a considerable increase in the amount of construction work on the U.S. national highways. Due to the capacity drop, which is the result of lane closure in work zone area, congestion occurs with a high traffic demand. The congestion increases number and severity of traffic conflicts which raise the potential for accidents; furthermore traffic operational properties of roadway in work zone area become worse. Intelligent Transportation System technologies have been developed and...
Show moreThere has been a considerable increase in the amount of construction work on the U.S. national highways. Due to the capacity drop, which is the result of lane closure in work zone area, congestion occurs with a high traffic demand. The congestion increases number and severity of traffic conflicts which raise the potential for accidents; furthermore traffic operational properties of roadway in work zone area become worse. Intelligent Transportation System technologies have been developed and are being deployed to improve the safety and mobility of traffic in and around work zones. The use of Dynamic Merge Controls (dynamic early merge and dynamic late merge) have been initiated to enhance traffic safety and to smooth traffic operations in work zone areas. The use of variable speed limit (VSL) systems at work zones is also one of those measures. VSL systems improve safety by helping the driver in determining the maximum speed that drivers should travel. Besides adding improvement to safety, they are also expected to improve mobility at the work zones. The main goal of this study was to evaluate the safety and operational effectiveness of the dynamic merge systems in the presence of VSL controls. VISSIM model is utilized to simulate a two-to-one lane configuration when one out of the two lanes in the work zone is closed for traffic. Two scenarios each for early and late simplified dynamic lane merge system (SDLMS) with and without VSLs, whereas one scenario each for the current Motorist Awareness System (MAS) and VSL alone were adopted to assess the effectiveness of these scenarios under different traffic demand volumes and different driversÂÂÂÂ' compliance rates to the messages displayed by the systems. Mean throughputs and travel time were operational measures of effectiveness whereas speed variance and deceleration means were taken as safety surrogate measures. Three different logics were coded each for VSL alone, early SDLMS+VSL and late SDLMS+VSL in calibrated and validated VISSIM model for SDLMS through Vehicle Actuated Programming (VAP) code. It is found that for low and medium volume levels (V0500, V1000 and V1500), there is no significant difference between the Maintenance of Traffic (MOT) plans for mean throughputs. For higher volume levels (V2000 and V2500), late SDLMS with and without VSL produced significantly higher mean throughputs for all compliance rates and truck percentages. This study revealed that VSL increases travel time through the work zone. It is also found out that VSL makes the system safer at higher volumes (2,000 vph and 2,500 vph). Another outcome of this study is that the addition of VSL to the dynamic merge systems helps in improving the overall safety of the system by lowering speed variances and deceleration means of the vehicles travelling through the work zone. The passage of traffic through the work zone is made safer when a speed control is integrated to a dynamic merge system.
Show less
Date Issued
2010
Identifier
CFE0003519, ucf:48974
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0003519
Real-time traffic safety evaluation models and their application for variable speed limits
Title
Real-time traffic safety evaluation models and their application for variable speed limits.
Creator
Yu, Rongjie, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Ahmed, Madani Larijani, Kaveh, Ahmed, Mohamed, Wang, Xuesong, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Traffic safety has become the first concern in the transportation area. Crashes have cause extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence at both the aggregate (targeting crash frequency per segment, intersection, etc.,) and disaggregate levels (analyzing each crash event). The aggregate traffic safety studies, mainly...
Show moreTraffic safety has become the first concern in the transportation area. Crashes have cause extensive human and economic losses. With the objective of reducing crash occurrence and alleviating crash injury severity, major efforts have been dedicated to reveal the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence at both the aggregate (targeting crash frequency per segment, intersection, etc.,) and disaggregate levels (analyzing each crash event). The aggregate traffic safety studies, mainly developing safety performance functions (SPFs), are being conducted for the purpose of unveiling crash contributing factors for the interest locations. Results of the aggregate traffic safety studies can be used to identify crash hot spots, calculate crash modification factors (CMF), and improve geometric characteristics. Aggregate analyses mainly focus on discovering the hazardous factors that are related to the frequency of total crashes, of specific crash type, or of each crash severity level. While disaggregate studies benefit from the reliable surveillance systems which provide detailed real-time traffic and weather data. This information could help in capturing microlevel influences of the hazardous factors which might lead to a crash. The disaggregate traffic safety models, also called real-time crash risk evaluation models, can be used in monitoring crash hazardousness with the real-time field data fed in. One potential use of real-time crash risk evaluation models is to develop Variable Speed Limits (VSL) as a part of a freeway management system. Models have been developed to predict crash occurrence to proactively improve traffic safety and prevent crash occurrence.In this study, first, aggregate safety performance functions were estimated to unveil the different risk factors affecting crash occurrence for a mountainous freeway section. Then disaggregate real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed for the total crashes with both the machine learning and hierarchical Bayesian models. Considering the need for analyzing both aggregate and disaggregate aspects of traffic safety, systematic multi-level traffic safety studies have been conducted for single- and multi-vehicle crashes, and weekday and weekend crashes. Finally, the feasibility of utilizing a VSL system to improve traffic safety on freeways has been investigated. This research was conducted based on data obtained from a 15-mile mountainous freeway section on I-70 in Colorado. The data contain historical crash data, roadway geometric characteristics, real-time weather data, and real-time traffic data. Real-time weather data were recorded by 6 weather stations installed along the freeway section, while the real-time traffic data were obtained from the Remote Traffic Microwave Sensor (RTMS) radars and Automatic Vechicle Identification (AVI) systems. Different datasets have been formulated from various data sources, and prepared for the multi-level traffic safety studies. In the aggregate traffic safety investigation, safety performance functions were developed to identify crash occurrence hazardous factors. For the first time real-time weather and traffic data were used in SPFs. Ordinary Poisson model and random effects Poisson models with Bayesian inference approach were employed to reveal the effects of weather and traffic related variables on crash occurrence. Two scenarios were considered: one seasonal based case and one crash type based case. Deviance Information Criterion (DIC) was utilized as the comparison criterion; and the correlated random effects Poisson models outperform the others. Results indicate that weather condition variables, especially precipitation, play a key role in the safety performance functions. Moreover, in order to compare with the correlated random effects Poisson model, Multivariate Poisson model and Multivariate Poisson-lognormal model have been estimated. Conclusions indicate that, instead of assuming identical random effects for the homogenous segments, considering the correlation effects between two count variables would result in better model fit. Results from the aggregate analyses shed light on the policy implication to reduce crash frequencies. For the studied roadway segment, crash occurrence in the snow season have clear trends associated with adverse weather situations (bad visibility and large amount of precipitation); weather warning systems can be employed to improve road safety during the snow season. Furthermore, different traffic management strategies should be developed according to the distinct seasonal influence factors. In particular, sites with steep slopes need more attention from the traffic management center and operators especially during snow seasons to control the excess crash occurrence. Moreover, distinct strategy of freeway management should be designed to address the differences between single- and multi-vehicle crash characteristics.In addition to developing safety performance functions with various modeling techniques, this study also investigates four different approaches of developing informative priors for the independent variables. Bayesian inference framework provides a complete and coherent way to balance the empirical data and prior expectations; merits of these informative priors have been tested along with two types of Bayesian hierarchical models (Poisson-gamma and Poisson-lognormal models). Deviance Information Criterion, R-square values, and coefficients of variance for the estimations were utilized as evaluation measures to select the best model(s). Comparisons across the models indicate that the Poisson-gamma model is superior with a better model fit and it is much more robust with the informative priors. Moreover, the two-stage Bayesian updating informative priors provided the best goodness-of-fit and coefficient estimation accuracies.In addition to the aggregate analyses, real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed to identify crash contributing factors at the disaggregate level. Support Vector Machine (SVM), a recently proposed statistical learning model and Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models were introduced to evaluate real-time crash risk. Classification and regression tree (CART) model has been developed to select the most important explanatory variables. Based on the variable selection results, Bayesian logistic regression models and SVM models with different kernel functions have been developed. Model comparisons based on receiver operating curves (ROC) demonstrate that the SVM model with Radial basis kernel function outperforms the others. Results from the models demonstrated that crashes are likely to happen during congestion periods (especially when the queuing area has propagated from the downstream segment); high variation of occupancy and/or volume would increase the probability of crash occurrence.Moreover, effects of microscopic traffic, weather, and roadway geometric factors on the occurrence of specific crash types have been investigated. Crashes have been categorized as rear-end, sideswipe, and single-vehicle crashes. AVI segment average speed, real-time weather data, and roadway geometric characteristics data were utilized as explanatory variables. Conclusions from this study imply that different active traffic management (ATM) strategies should be designed for three- and two-lane roadway sections and also considering the seasonal effects. Based on the abovementioned results, real-time crash risk evaluation models have been developed separately for multi-vehicle and single-vehicle crashes, and weekday and weekend crashes. Hierarchical Bayesian logistic regression models (random effects and random parameter logistic regression models) have been introduced to address the seasonal variations, crash unit level's diversities, and unobserved heterogeneity caused by geometric characteristics. For the multi-vehicle crashes: congested conditions at downstream would contribute to an increase in the likelihood of multi-vehicle crashes; multi-vehicle crashes are more likely to occur during poor visibility conditions and if there is a turbulent area that exists downstream. Drivers who are unable to reduce their speeds timely are prone to causing rear-end crashes. While for the single-vehicle crashes: slow moving traffic platoons at the downstream detector of the crash occurrence locations would increase the probability of single-vehicle crashes; large variations of occupancy downstream would also increase the likelihood of single-vehicle crash occurrence.Substantial efforts have been dedicated to revealing the hazardous factors that affect crash occurrence from both the aggregate and disaggregate level in this study, however, findings and conclusions from these research work need to be transferred into applications for roadway design and freeway management. This study further investigates the feasibility of utilizing Variable Speed Limits (VSL) system, one key part of ATM, to improve traffic safety on freeways. A proactive traffic safety improvement VSL control algorithm has been proposed. First, an extension of the traffic flow model METANET was employed to predict traffic flow while considering VSL's impacts on the flow-density diagram; a real-time crash risk evaluation model was then estimated for the purpose of quantifying crash risk; finally, the optimal VSL control strategies were achieved by employing an optimization technique of minimizing the total predicted crash risks along the VSL implementation area. Constraints were set up to limit the increase of the average travel time and differences between posted speed limits temporarily and spatially. The proposed VSL control strategy was tested for a mountainous freeway bottleneck area in the microscopic simulation software VISSIM. Safety impacts of the VSL system were quantified as crash risk improvements and speed homogeneity improvements. Moreover, three different driver compliance levels were modeled in VISSIM to monitor the sensitivity of VSL's safety impacts on driver compliance levels. Conclusions demonstrate that the proposed VSL system could effectively improve traffic safety by decreasing crash risk, enhancing speed homogeneity, and reducing travel time under both high and moderate driver compliance levels; while the VSL system does not have significant effects on traffic safety enhancement under the low compliance scenario. Future implementations of VSL control strategies and related research topics were also discussed.
Show less
Date Issued
2013
Identifier
CFE0005283, ucf:50556
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005283
Implementation Strategies for Real-time Traffic Safety Improvements on Urban Freeways
Title
Implementation Strategies for Real-time Traffic Safety Improvements on Urban Freeways.
Creator
Dilmore, Jeremy, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This research evaluates Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation strategies to improve the safety of a freeway once a potential of a crash is detected. Among these strategies are Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and ramp metering. VSL are ITS devices that are commonly used to calm traffic in an attempt to relieve congestion and enhance throughput. With proper use, VSL can be more cost effective than adding more lanes. In addition to maximizing the capacity of a roadway, a different...
Show moreThis research evaluates Intelligent Transportation System (ITS) implementation strategies to improve the safety of a freeway once a potential of a crash is detected. Among these strategies are Variable Speed Limit (VSL) and ramp metering. VSL are ITS devices that are commonly used to calm traffic in an attempt to relieve congestion and enhance throughput. With proper use, VSL can be more cost effective than adding more lanes. In addition to maximizing the capacity of a roadway, a different aspect of VSL can be realized by the potential of improving traffic safety. Through the use of multiple microscopic traffic simulations, best practices can be determined, and a final recommendation can be made. Ramp metering is a method to control the amount of traffic flow entering from on-ramps to achieve a better efficiency of the freeway. It can also have a potential benefit in improving the safety of the freeway. This thesis pursues the goal of a best-case implementation of VSL. Two loading scenarios, a fully loaded case (90% of ramp maximums) and an off-peak loading case (60% of ramp maximums), at multiple stations with multiple implementation methods are strategically attempted until a best-case implementation is found. The final recommendation for the off-peak loading is a 15 mph speed reduction for 2 miles upstream and a 15 mph increase in speed for the 2 miles downstream of the detector that shows a high crash potential. The speed change is to be implemented in 5 mph increments every 10 minutes. The recommended case is found to reduce relative crash potential from .065 to -.292, as measured by a high-speed crash prediction algorithm (Abdel-Aty et al. 2005). A possibility of crash migration to downstream and upstream locations was observed, however, the safety and efficiency benefits far outweigh the crash migration potential. No final recommendation is made for the use of VSL in the fully loaded case (low-speed case); however, ramp metering indicated a promising potential for safety improvement.
Show less
Date Issued
2005
Identifier
CFE0000339, ucf:46287
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0000339
Microscopic Safety Evaluation and Prediction for Special Expressway Facilities
Title
Microscopic Safety Evaluation and Prediction for Special Expressway Facilities.
Creator
Wang, Ling, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Uddin, Nizam, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Expressways are of great importance and serve as the backbone of a roadway system. One of the reasons why expressways increase travel speeds and provide high level of services is that limited access is provided to permit vehicles to enter or exit expressways. Entering and exiting of vehicles are accomplished through interchanges, which consist of several ramps, thus the spacing between ramps is important. A weaving segment might form when an on-ramp is closely followed by an off-ramp. The...
Show moreExpressways are of great importance and serve as the backbone of a roadway system. One of the reasons why expressways increase travel speeds and provide high level of services is that limited access is provided to permit vehicles to enter or exit expressways. Entering and exiting of vehicles are accomplished through interchanges, which consist of several ramps, thus the spacing between ramps is important. A weaving segment might form when an on-ramp is closely followed by an off-ramp. The geometric design of ramps and the traffic behavior of weaving segments are different from other expressway segments. These differences result in distinct safety mechanisms of these two expressway special facilities. Hence, the safety of these two facilities needs to be addressed.The majority of previous traffic safety studies on expressway special facilities are based on highly aggregated traffic data, e.g., Annual Average Daily Traffic (AADT). This highly aggregated traffic data cannot represent traffic conditions at the time of crashes and also cannot be used in the study of weather and temporal impact on crash occurrence. One way to solve this problem is microscopic safety evaluation and prediction through hourly crash prediction and real-time safety analysis. An hourly crash study averages one or several hours' traffic data in a year and also aggregates crash frequencies in the corresponding hour(s). Then it applies predictive models to determine the statistical relationship between crashes and hourly traffic flow characteristics, such as traffic volume. Real-time safety analysis enables us to predict crash risk and distinguish crashes from non-crashes in the next few minutes using the current traffic, weather, and other conditions.There are four types of crash contributing factors: traffic, geometry, weather, and driver. Among these, traffic parameters have been utilized in all previous microscopic safety studies. On the other hand, the other three factors' impact on microscopic safety has not been widely analyzed. The geometric factors' influence on safety are generally excluded by previous researchers using the matched-case-control method, because the majority of previous microscopic safety studies are on mainlines, where the geometric design of a segment does not change much and geometry does not have a significant effect on safety. Not enough studies have adopted weather factors in microscopic safety analysis because of the limited availability of weather data. The impact of drivers on safety has also not been widely considered since driver information is hard to be obtained. This study explores the relationship between crashes and the four contributing factors. Weather data are obtained from airport weather stations and crash reports which record weather and roadway surface conditions for crashes. Meanwhile, land-use and trip generation parameters serve as surrogates for drivers' behavior.Several methods are used to explore and quantify the impact of these factors. Random forests are used in discovering important and significant explanatory variables, which play significant roles in determining traffic safety, by ranking their importance. Meanwhile, in order to prevent high correlation between independent variables, Pearson correlation tests are carried out before model estimations. Only the variables which are not highly correlated are selected. Then, the selected variables are put in logistic regression models and Poisson-lognormal models to respectively estimate crash risk and crash frequency for special expressway facilities. Meanwhile, in case of correlation among observations in the same segment, a multilevel modeling structure has been implemented. Furthermore, a data mining technique(-)Support Vector Machine (SVM)(-)is used to distinguish crash from non-crash observations. Once the crash mechanisms for special expressway facilities are found, we are able to provide valuable information on how to manage roadway facilities to improve the traffic safety of special facilities. This study adopts Active Traffic Management (ATM) strategies, including Ramp Metering (RM) and Variable Speed Limit (VSL), in order to enhance the safety of a congested weaving segment. RM regulates the entering vehicle volume by adjusts metering rate, and VSL is able to provide smoother mainline traffic by changing the mainline speed limits. The ATM strategies are carried out in microscopic simulation VISSIM through the Component Object Model (COM) interface. The results shows that the crash risk and conflict count of the studies weaving segment have been significantly reduced because of ATM.Furthermore, the mechanisms of traffic conflicts, a surrogate safety measurement, are explored for weaving segments using microscopic simulation. The weaving segment conflict prediction model is compared with its crash prediction model. The results show that there are similarity and differences between conflict and crash mechanisms. Finally, potential relevant applications beyond the scope of this research but worth investigation in the future are also discussed in this dissertation.
Show less
Date Issued
2016
Identifier
CFE0006414, ucf:51480
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006414