View All Items
(1 - 3 of 3)
- Title
- AN IMPACT EVALUATION OF U.S. ARMS EXPORT CONTROLS ON THE U.S. DEFENSE INDUSTRIAL BASE: AN INTERRUPTED TIME-SERIES ANALYSIS.
- Creator
-
Condron, Aaron, Sweo, Robert, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
The United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers...
Show moreThe United States Defense Industrial Base (USDIB) is an essential industry to both the economic prosperity of the US and its strategic control over many advanced military systems and technologies. The USDIB, which encompasses the industries of aerospace and defense, is a volatile industry - prone to many internal and external factors that cause demand to ebb and flow widely year over year. Among the factors that influence the volume of systems the USDIB delivers to its international customers are the arms export controls of the US. These controls impose a divergence from the historical US foreign policy of furthering an open exchange of ideas and liberalized trade. These controls, imposed by the Departments of Commerce, Defense, and State rigidly control all international presence of the Industry. The overlapping controls create an inability to conform to rapidly changing realpolitiks, leaving these controls in an archaic state. This, in turn, imposes a great deal of anxiety and expense upon managers within and outside of the USDIB. Using autoregressive integrated moving average time-series analyses, this paper confirms that the implementation of or amendment to broad arms export controls correlates to significant and near immediate declines in USDIB export volumes. In the context of the US's share of world arms exports, these controls impose up to a 20% decline in export volume.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2011
- Identifier
- CFH0004064, ucf:44785
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004064
- Title
- Risk Management in Reservoir Operations in the Context of Undefined Competitive Consumption.
- Creator
-
Salami, Yunus, Nnadi, Fidelia, Wang, Dingbao, Chopra, Manoj, Rowney, Alexander, Divo, Eduardo, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
Dams and reservoirs with multiple purposes require effective management to fully realize their purposes and maximize efficiency. For instance, a reservoir intended mainly for the purposes of flood control and hydropower generation may result in a system with primary objectives that conflict with each other. This is because higher hydraulic heads are required to achieve the hydropower generation objective while relatively lower reservoir levels are required to fulfill flood control objectives....
Show moreDams and reservoirs with multiple purposes require effective management to fully realize their purposes and maximize efficiency. For instance, a reservoir intended mainly for the purposes of flood control and hydropower generation may result in a system with primary objectives that conflict with each other. This is because higher hydraulic heads are required to achieve the hydropower generation objective while relatively lower reservoir levels are required to fulfill flood control objectives. Protracted imbalances between these two could increase the susceptibility of the system to risks of water shortage or flood, depending on inflow volumes and operational policy effectiveness. The magnitudes of these risks can become even more pronounced when upstream use of the river is unregulated and uncoordinated so that upstream consumptions and releases are arbitrary. As a result, safe operational practices and risk management alternatives must be structured after an improved understanding of historical and anticipated inflows, actual and speculative upstream uses, and the overall hydrology of catchments upstream of the reservoir. One of such systems with an almost yearly occurrence of floods and shortages due to both natural and anthropogenic factors is the dual reservoir system of Kainji and Jebba in Nigeria. To analyze and manage these risks, a methodology that combines a stochastic and deterministic approach was employed. Using methods outlined by Box and Jenkins (1976), autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models were developed for forecasting Niger river inflows at Kainji reservoir based on twenty-seven-year-long historical inflow data (1970-1996). These were then validated using seven-year inflow records (1997-2003). The model with the best correlation was a seasonal multiplicative ARIMA (2,1,1)x(2,1,2)12 model. Supplementary validation of this model was done with discharge rating curves developed for the inlet of the reservoir using in situ inflows and satellite altimetry data. By comparing net inflow volumes with storage deficit, flood and shortage risk factors at the reservoir were determined based on (a) actual inflows, (b) forecasted inflows (up to 2015), and (c) simulated scenarios depicting undefined competitive upstream consumption. Calculated high-risk years matched actual flood years again suggesting the reliability of the model. Monte Carlo simulations were then used to prescribe safe outflows and storage allocations in order to reduce futuristic risk factors. The theoretical safety levels achieved indicated risk factors below threshold values and showed that this methodology is a powerful tool for estimating and managing flood and shortage risks in reservoirs with undefined competitive upstream consumption.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2012
- Identifier
- CFE0004593, ucf:49193
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004593
- Title
- A GASOLINE DEMAND MODEL FOR THE UNITED STATES LIGHT VEHICLE FLEET.
- Creator
-
Rey, Diana, Al-Deek, Haitham, University of Central Florida
- Abstract / Description
-
ABSTRACT The United States is the world's largest oil consumer demanding about twenty five percent of the total world oil production. Whenever there are difficulties to supply the increasing quantities of oil demanded by the market, the price of oil escalates leading to what is known as oil price spikes or oil price shocks. The last oil price shock which was the longest sustained oil price run up in history, began its course in year 2004, and ended in 2008. This last oil price shock...
Show moreABSTRACT The United States is the world's largest oil consumer demanding about twenty five percent of the total world oil production. Whenever there are difficulties to supply the increasing quantities of oil demanded by the market, the price of oil escalates leading to what is known as oil price spikes or oil price shocks. The last oil price shock which was the longest sustained oil price run up in history, began its course in year 2004, and ended in 2008. This last oil price shock initiated recognizable changes in transportation dynamics: transit operators realized that commuters switched to transit as a way to save gasoline costs, consumers began to search the market for more efficient vehicles leading car manufactures to close "gas guzzlers" plants, and the government enacted a new law entitled the Energy Independence Act of 2007, which called for the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator of the light vehicle fleet up to 35 miles per gallon in year 2020. The past trend of gasoline consumption will probably change; so in the context of the problem a gasoline consumption model was developed in this thesis to ascertain how some of the changes will impact future gasoline demand. Gasoline demand was expressed in oil equivalent million barrels per day, in a two steps Ordinary Least Square (OLS) explanatory variable model. In the first step, vehicle miles traveled expressed in trillion vehicle miles was regressed on the independent variables: vehicles expressed in million vehicles, and price of oil expressed in dollars per barrel. In the second step, the fuel consumption in million barrels per day was regressed on vehicle miles traveled, and on the fuel efficiency indicator expressed in miles per gallon. The explanatory model was run in EVIEWS that allows checking for normality, heteroskedasticty, and serial correlation. Serial correlation was addressed by inclusion of autoregressive or moving average error correction terms. Multicollinearity was solved by first differencing. The 36 year sample series set (1970-2006) was divided into a 30 years sub-period for calibration and a 6 year "hold-out" sub-period for validation. The Root Mean Square Error or RMSE criterion was adopted to select the "best model" among other possible choices, although other criteria were also recorded. Three scenarios for the size of the light vehicle fleet in a forecasting period up to 2020 were created. These scenarios were equivalent to growth rates of 2.1, 1.28, and about 1 per cent per year. The last or more optimistic vehicle growth scenario, from the gasoline consumption perspective, appeared consistent with the theory of vehicle saturation. One scenario for the average miles per gallon indicator was created for each one of the size of fleet indicators by distributing the fleet every year assuming a 7 percent replacement rate. Three scenarios for the price of oil were also created: the first one used the average price of oil in the sample since 1970, the second was obtained by extending the price trend by exponential smoothing, and the third one used a longtime forecast supplied by the Energy Information Administration. The three scenarios created for the price of oil covered a range between a low of about 42 dollars per barrel to highs in the low 100's. The 1970-2006 gasoline consumption trend was extended to year 2020 by ARIMA Box-Jenkins time series analysis, leading to a gasoline consumption value of about 10 millions barrels per day in year 2020. This trend line was taken as the reference or baseline of gasoline consumption. The savings that resulted by application of the explanatory variable OLS model were measured against such a baseline of gasoline consumption. Even on the most pessimistic scenario the savings obtained by the progressive improvement of the fuel efficiency indicator seem enough to offset the increase in consumption that otherwise would have occurred by extension of the trend, leaving consumption at the 2006 levels or about 9 million barrels per day. The most optimistic scenario led to savings up to about 2 million barrels per day below the 2006 level or about 3 millions barrels per day below the baseline in 2020. The "expected" or average consumption in 2020 is about 8 million barrels per day, 2 million barrels below the baseline or 1 million below the 2006 consumption level. More savings are possible if technologies such as plug-in hybrids that have been already implemented in other countries take over soon, are efficiently promoted, or are given incentives or subsidies such as tax credits. The savings in gasoline consumption may in the future contribute to stabilize the price of oil as worldwide demand is tamed by oil saving policy changes implemented in the United States.
Show less - Date Issued
- 2009
- Identifier
- CFE0002539, ucf:47659
- Format
- Document (PDF)
- PURL
- http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002539
