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A LIFE CYCLE SOFTWARE QUALITY MODEL USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS
Title
A LIFE CYCLE SOFTWARE QUALITY MODEL USING BAYESIAN BELIEF NETWORKS.
Creator
Beaver, Justin, Schiavone, Guy, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Software practitioners lack a consistent approach to assessing and predicting quality within their products. This research proposes a software quality model that accounts for the influences of development team skill/experience, process maturity, and problem complexity throughout the software engineering life cycle. The model is structured using Bayesian Belief Networks and, unlike previous efforts, uses widely-accepted software engineering standards and in-use industry techniques to quantify...
Show moreSoftware practitioners lack a consistent approach to assessing and predicting quality within their products. This research proposes a software quality model that accounts for the influences of development team skill/experience, process maturity, and problem complexity throughout the software engineering life cycle. The model is structured using Bayesian Belief Networks and, unlike previous efforts, uses widely-accepted software engineering standards and in-use industry techniques to quantify the indicators and measures of software quality. Data from 28 software engineering projects was acquired for this study, and was used for validation and comparison of the presented software quality models. Three Bayesian model structures are explored and the structure with the highest performance in terms of accuracy of fit and predictive validity is reported. In addition, the Bayesian Belief Networks are compared to both Least Squares Regression and Neural Networks in order to identify the technique is best suited to modeling software product quality. The results indicate that Bayesian Belief Networks outperform both Least Squares Regression and Neural Networks in terms of producing modeled software quality variables that fit the distribution of actual software quality values, and in accurately forecasting 25 different indicators of software quality. Between the Bayesian model structures, the simplest structure, which relates software quality variables to their correlated causal factors, was found to be the most effective in modeling software quality. In addition, the results reveal that the collective skill and experience of the development team, over process maturity or problem complexity, has the most significant impact on the quality of software products.
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Date Issued
2006
Identifier
CFE0001367, ucf:46993
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001367
Reliable Spectrum Hole Detection in Spectrum-Heterogeneous Mobile Cognitive Radio Networks via Sequential Bayesian Non-parametric Clustering
Title
Reliable Spectrum Hole Detection in Spectrum-Heterogeneous Mobile Cognitive Radio Networks via Sequential Bayesian Non-parametric Clustering.
Creator
Zaeemzadeh, Alireza, Rahnavard, Nazanin, Vosoughi, Azadeh, Qi, GuoJun, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
In this work, the problem of detecting radio spectrum opportunities in spectrum-heterogeneous cognitive radio networks is addressed. Spectrum opportunities are the frequency channels that are underutilized by the primary licensed users. Thus, by enabling the unlicensed users to detect and utilize them, we can improve the efficiency, reliability, and the flexibility of the radio spectrum usage. The main objective of this work is to discover the spectrum opportunities in time, space, and...
Show moreIn this work, the problem of detecting radio spectrum opportunities in spectrum-heterogeneous cognitive radio networks is addressed. Spectrum opportunities are the frequency channels that are underutilized by the primary licensed users. Thus, by enabling the unlicensed users to detect and utilize them, we can improve the efficiency, reliability, and the flexibility of the radio spectrum usage. The main objective of this work is to discover the spectrum opportunities in time, space, and frequency domains, by proposing a low-cost and practical framework. Spectrum-heterogeneous networks are the networks in which different sensors experience different spectrum opportunities. Thus, the sensing data from sensors cannot be combined to reach consensus and to detect the spectrum opportunities. Moreover, unreliable data, caused by noise or malicious attacks, will deteriorate the performance of the decision-making process. The problem becomes even more challenging when the locations of the sensors are unknown. In this work, a probabilistic model is proposed to cluster the sensors based on their readings, not requiring any knowledge of location of the sensors. The complexity of the model, which is the number of clusters, is automatically inferred from the sensing data. The processing node, also referred to as the base station or the fusion center, infers the probability distributions of cluster memberships, channel availabilities, and devices' reliability in an online manner. After receiving each chunk of sensing data, the probability distributions are updated, without requiring to repeat the computations on previous sensing data. All the update rules are derived mathematically, by employing Bayesian data analysis techniques and variational inference.Furthermore, the inferred probability distributions are employed to assign unique spectrum opportunities to each of the sensors. To avoid interference among the sensors, physically adjacent devices should not utilize the same channels. However, since the location of the devices is not known, cluster membership information is used as a measure of adjacency. This is based on the assumption that the measurements of the devices are spatially correlated. Thus, adjacent devices, which experience similar spectrum opportunities, belong to the same cluster. Then, the problem is mapped into a energy minimization problem and solved via graph cuts. The goal of the proposed graph-theory-based method is to assign each device an available channel, while avoiding interference among neighboring devices. The numerical simulations illustrates the effectiveness of the proposed methods, compared to the existing frameworks.
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Date Issued
2017
Identifier
CFE0006963, ucf:51639
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006963
Quantifying Trust and Reputation for Defense against Adversaries in Multi-Channel Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks
Title
Quantifying Trust and Reputation for Defense against Adversaries in Multi-Channel Dynamic Spectrum Access Networks.
Creator
Bhattacharjee, Shameek, Chatterjee, Mainak, Guha, Ratan, Zou, Changchun, Turgut, Damla, Catbas, Necati, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Dynamic spectrum access enabled by cognitive radio networks are envisioned to drivethe next generation wireless networks that can increase spectrum utility by opportunisticallyaccessing unused spectrum. Due to the policy constraint that there could be no interferenceto the primary (licensed) users, secondary cognitive radios have to continuously sense forprimary transmissions. Typically, sensing reports from multiple cognitive radios are fusedas stand-alone observations are prone to errors...
Show moreDynamic spectrum access enabled by cognitive radio networks are envisioned to drivethe next generation wireless networks that can increase spectrum utility by opportunisticallyaccessing unused spectrum. Due to the policy constraint that there could be no interferenceto the primary (licensed) users, secondary cognitive radios have to continuously sense forprimary transmissions. Typically, sensing reports from multiple cognitive radios are fusedas stand-alone observations are prone to errors due to wireless channel characteristics. Suchdependence on cooperative spectrum sensing is vulnerable to attacks such as SecondarySpectrum Data Falsification (SSDF) attacks when multiple malicious or selfish radios falsifythe spectrum reports. Hence, there is a need to quantify the trustworthiness of radios thatshare spectrum sensing reports and devise malicious node identification and robust fusionschemes that would lead to correct inference about spectrum usage.In this work, we propose an anomaly monitoring technique that can effectively cap-ture anomalies in the spectrum sensing reports shared by individual cognitive radios duringcooperative spectrum sensing in a multi-channel distributed network. Such anomalies areused as evidence to compute the trustworthiness of a radio by its neighbours. The proposedanomaly monitoring technique works for any density of malicious nodes and for any physicalenvironment. We propose an optimistic trust heuristic for a system with a normal risk attitude and show that it can be approximated as a beta distribution. For a more conservativesystem, we propose a multinomial Dirichlet distribution based conservative trust framework,where Josang's Belief model is used to resolve any uncertainty in information that mightarise during anomaly monitoring. Using a machine learning approach, we identify maliciousnodes with a high degree of certainty regardless of their aggressiveness and variations intro-duced by the pathloss environment. We also propose extensions to the anomaly monitoringtechnique that facilitate learning about strategies employed by malicious nodes and alsoutilize the misleading information they provide. We also devise strategies to defend against a collaborative SSDF attack that islaunched by a coalition of selfish nodes. Since, defense against such collaborative attacks isdifficult with popularly used voting based inference models or node centric isolation techniques, we propose a channel centric Bayesian inference approach that indicates how much the collective decision on a channels occupancy inference can be trusted. Based on the measured observations over time, we estimate the parameters of the hypothesis of anomalous andnon-anomalous events using a multinomial Bayesian based inference. We quantitatively define the trustworthiness of a channel inference as the difference between the posterior beliefsassociated with anomalous and non-anomalous events. The posterior beliefs are updated based on a weighted average of the prior information on the belief itself and the recently observed data.Subsequently, we propose robust fusion models which utilize the trusts of the nodes to improve the accuracy of the cooperative spectrum sensing decisions. In particular, we propose three fusion models: (i) optimistic trust based fusion, (ii) conservative trust based fusion, and (iii) inversion based fusion. The former two approaches exclude untrustworthy sensing reports for fusion, while the last approach utilizes misleading information. Allschemes are analyzed under various attack strategies. We propose an asymmetric weightedmoving average based trust management scheme that quickly identifies on-off SSDF attacks and prevents quick trust redemption when such nodes revert back to temporal honest behavior. We also provide insights on what attack strategies are more effective from the adversaries' perspective.Through extensive simulation experiments we show that the trust models are effective in identifying malicious nodes with a high degree of certainty under variety of network and radio conditions. We show high true negative detection rates even when multiple malicious nodes launch collaborative attacks which is an improvement over existing voting based exclusion and entropy divergence techniques. We also show that we are able to improve the accuracy of fusion decisions compared to other popular fusion techniques. Trust based fusion schemes show worst case decision error rates of 5% while inversion based fusion show 4% as opposed majority voting schemes that have 18% error rate. We also show that the proposed channel centric Bayesian inference based trust model is able to distinguish between attacked and non-attacked channels for both static and dynamic collaborative attacks. We are also able to show that attacked channels have significantly lower trust values than channels that are not(-) a metric that can be used by nodes to rank the quality of inference on channels.
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Date Issued
2015
Identifier
CFE0005764, ucf:50081
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005764
SINBAD AUTOMATION OF SCIENTIFIC PROCESS: FROM HIDDEN FACTOR ANALYSIS TO THEORY SYNTHESIS
Title
SINBAD AUTOMATION OF SCIENTIFIC PROCESS: FROM HIDDEN FACTOR ANALYSIS TO THEORY SYNTHESIS.
Creator
KURSUN, OLCAY, Favorov, Oleg V., University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Modern science is turning to progressively more complex and data-rich subjects, which challenges the existing methods of data analysis and interpretation. Consequently, there is a pressing need for development of ever more powerful methods of extracting order from complex data and for automation of all steps of the scientific process. Virtual Scientist is a set of computational procedures that automate the method of inductive inference to derive a theory from observational data dominated by...
Show moreModern science is turning to progressively more complex and data-rich subjects, which challenges the existing methods of data analysis and interpretation. Consequently, there is a pressing need for development of ever more powerful methods of extracting order from complex data and for automation of all steps of the scientific process. Virtual Scientist is a set of computational procedures that automate the method of inductive inference to derive a theory from observational data dominated by nonlinear regularities. The procedures utilize SINBAD – a novel computational method of nonlinear factor analysis that is based on the principle of maximization of mutual information among non-overlapping sources (Imax), yielding higher-order features of the data that reveal hidden causal factors controlling the observed phenomena. One major advantage of this approach is that it is not dependent on a particular choice of learning algorithm to use for the computations. The procedures build a theory of the studied subject by finding inferentially useful hidden factors, learning interdependencies among its variables, reconstructing its functional organization, and describing it by a concise graph of inferential relations among its variables. The graph is a quantitative model of the studied subject, capable of performing elaborate deductive inferences and explaining behaviors of the observed variables by behaviors of other such variables and discovered hidden factors. The set of Virtual Scientist procedures is a powerful analytical and theory-building tool designed to be used in research of complex scientific problems characterized by multivariate and nonlinear relations.
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Date Issued
2004
Identifier
CFE0000043, ucf:46124
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0000043
Chemical Analysis, Databasing, and Statistical Analysis of Smokeless Powders for Forensic Application
Title
Chemical Analysis, Databasing, and Statistical Analysis of Smokeless Powders for Forensic Application.
Creator
Dennis, Dana-Marie, Sigman, Michael, Campiglia, Andres, Yestrebsky, Cherie, Fookes, Barry, Ni, Liqiang, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Smokeless powders are a set of energetic materials, known as low explosives, which are typically utilized for reloading ammunition. There are three types which differ in their primary energetic materials; where single base powders contain nitrocellulose as their primary energetic material, double and triple base powders contain nitroglycerin in addition to nitrocellulose, and triple base powders also contain nitroguanidine. Additional organic compounds, while not proprietary to specific...
Show moreSmokeless powders are a set of energetic materials, known as low explosives, which are typically utilized for reloading ammunition. There are three types which differ in their primary energetic materials; where single base powders contain nitrocellulose as their primary energetic material, double and triple base powders contain nitroglycerin in addition to nitrocellulose, and triple base powders also contain nitroguanidine. Additional organic compounds, while not proprietary to specific manufacturers, are added to the powders in varied ratios during the manufacturing process to optimize the ballistic performance of the powders. The additional compounds function as stabilizers, plasticizers, flash suppressants, deterrents, and opacifiers. Of the three smokeless powder types, single and double base powders are commercially available, and have been heavily utilized in the manufacture of improvised explosive devices.Forensic smokeless powder samples are currently analyzed using multiple analytical techniques. Combined microscopic, macroscopic, and instrumental techniques are used to evaluate the sample, and the information obtained is used to generate a list of potential distributors. Gas chromatography (-) mass spectrometry (GC-MS) is arguably the most useful of the instrumental techniques since it distinguishes single and double base powders, and provides additional information about the relative ratios of all the analytes present in the sample. However, forensic smokeless powder samples are still limited to being classified as either single or double base powders, based on the absence or presence of nitroglycerin, respectively. In this work, the goal was to develop statistically valid classes, beyond the single and double base designations, based on multiple organic compounds which are commonly encountered in commercial smokeless powders. Several chemometric techniques were applied to smokeless powder GC-MS data for determination of the classes, and for assignment of test samples to these novel classes. The total ion spectrum (TIS), which is calculated from the GC-MS data for each sample, is obtained by summing the intensities for each mass-to-charge (m/z) ratio across the entire chromatographic profile. A TIS matrix comprising data for 726 smokeless powder samples was subject to agglomerative hierarchical cluster (AHC) analysis, and six distinct classes were identified. Within each class, a single m/z ratio had the highest intensity for the majority of samples, though the m/z ratio was not always unique to the specific class. Based on these observations, a new classification method known as the Intense Ion Rule (IIR) was developed and used for the assignment of test samples to the AHC designated classes.Discriminant models were developed for assignment of test samples to the AHC designated classes using k-Nearest Neighbors (kNN) and linear and quadratic discriminant analyses (LDA and QDA, respectively). Each of the models were optimized using leave-one-out (LOO) and leave-group-out (LGO) cross-validation, and the performance of the models was evaluated by calculating correct classification rates for assignment of the cross-validation (CV) samples to the AHC designated classes. The optimized models were utilized to assign test samples to the AHC designated classes. Overall, the QDA LGO model achieved the highest correct classification rates for assignment of both the CV samples and the test samples to the AHC designated classes.In forensic application, the goal of an explosives analyst is to ascertain the manufacturer of a smokeless powder sample. In addition, knowledge about the probability of a forensic sample being produced by a specific manufacturer could potentially decrease the time invested by an analyst during investigation by providing a shorter list of potential manufacturers. In this work, Bayes' Theorem and Bayesian Networks were investigated as an additional tool to be utilized in forensic casework. Bayesian Networks were generated and used to calculate posterior probabilities of a test sample belonging to specific manufacturers. The networks were designed to include manufacturer controlled powder characteristics such as shape, color, and dimension; as well as, the relative intensities of the class associated ions determined from cluster analysis. Samples were predicted to belong to a manufacturer based on the highest posterior probability. Overall percent correct rates were determined by calculating the percentage of correct predictions; that is, where the known and predicted manufacturer were the same. The initial overall percent correct rate was 66%. The dimensions of the smokeless powders were added to the network as average diameter and average length nodes. Addition of average diameter and length resulted in an overall prediction rate of 70%.
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Date Issued
2015
Identifier
CFE0005784, ucf:50059
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005784
Development of Traffic Safety Zones and Integrating Macroscopic and Microscopic Safety Data Analytics for Novel Hot Zone Identification
Title
Development of Traffic Safety Zones and Integrating Macroscopic and Microscopic Safety Data Analytics for Novel Hot Zone Identification.
Creator
Lee, JaeYoung, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Ahmed, Nam, Boo Hyun, Kuo, Pei-Fen, Choi, Keechoo, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Traffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. With consistent efforts of transportation engineers, Federal, State and local government officials, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in the United States have steadily declined from 2006 to 2011.Nevertheless, fatalities from traffic crashes slightly increased in 2012 (NHTSA, 2013). We lost 33,561 lives from road traffic crashes in the year 2012, and the road traffic...
Show moreTraffic safety has been considered one of the most important issues in the transportation field. With consistent efforts of transportation engineers, Federal, State and local government officials, both fatalities and fatality rates from road traffic crashes in the United States have steadily declined from 2006 to 2011.Nevertheless, fatalities from traffic crashes slightly increased in 2012 (NHTSA, 2013). We lost 33,561 lives from road traffic crashes in the year 2012, and the road traffic crashes are still one of the leading causes of deaths, according to the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). In recent years, efforts to incorporate traffic safety into transportation planning has been made, which is termed as transportation safety planning (TSP). The Safe, Affordable, Flexible Efficient, Transportation Equity Act (-) A Legacy for Users (SAFETEA-LU), which is compliant with the United States Code, compels the United States Department of Transportation to consider traffic safety in the long-term transportation planning process. Although considerable macro-level studies have been conducted to facilitate the implementation of TSP, still there are critical limitations in macroscopic safety studies are required to be investigated and remedied. First, TAZ (Traffic Analysis Zone), which is most widely used in travel demand forecasting, has crucial shortcomings for macro-level safety modeling. Moreover, macro-level safety models have accuracy problem. The low prediction power of the model may be caused by crashes that occur near the boundaries of zones, high-level aggregation, and neglecting spatial autocorrelation.In this dissertation, several methodologies are proposed to alleviate these limitations in the macro-level safety research. TSAZ (Traffic Safety Analysis Zone) is developed as a new zonal system for the macroscopic safety analysis and nested structured modeling method is suggested to improve the model performance. Also, a multivariate statistical modeling method for multiple crash types is proposed in this dissertation. Besides, a novel screening methodology for integrating two levels is suggested. The integrated screening method is suggested to overcome shortcomings of zonal-level screening, since the zonal-level screening cannot take specific sites with high risks into consideration. It is expected that the integrated screening approach can provide a comprehensive perspective by balancing two aspects: macroscopic and microscopic approaches.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005195, ucf:50653
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005195