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Safety investigation of traffic crashes incorporating spatial correlation effects
Title
Safety investigation of traffic crashes incorporating spatial correlation effects.
Creator
Alkahtani, Khalid, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Radwan, Essam, Eluru, Naveen, Lee, JaeYoung, Zheng, Qipeng, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
One main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among...
Show moreOne main interest in crash frequency modeling is to predict crash counts over a spatial domain of interest (e.g., traffic analysis zones (TAZs)). The macro-level crash prediction models can assist transportation planners with a comprehensive perspective to consider safety in the long-range transportation planning process. Most of the previous studies that have examined traffic crashes at the macro-level are related to high-income countries, whereas there is a lack of similar studies among lower- and middle-income countries where most road traffic deaths (90%) occur. This includes Middle Eastern countries, necessitating a thorough investigation and diagnosis of the issues and factors instigating traffic crashes in the region in order to reduce these serious traffic crashes. Since pedestrians are more vulnerable to traffic crashes compared to other road users, especially in this region, a safety investigation of pedestrian crashes is crucial to improving traffic safety. Riyadh, Saudi Arabia, which is one of the largest Middle East metropolises, is used as an example to reflect the representation of these countries' characteristics, where Saudi Arabia has a rather distinct situation in that it is considered a high-income country, and yet it has the highest rate of traffic fatalities compared to their high-income counterparts. Therefore, in this research, several statistical methods are used to investigate the association between traffic crash frequency and contributing factors of crash data, which are characterized by 1) geographical referencing (i.e., observed at specific locations) or spatially varying over geographic units when modeled; 2) correlation between different response variables (e.g., crash counts by severity or type levels); and 3) temporally correlated. A Bayesian multivariate spatial model is developed for predicting crash counts by severity and type. Therefore, based on the findings of this study, policy makers would be able to suggest appropriate safety countermeasures for each type of crash in each zone.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007148, ucf:52324
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007148
LEVEL-OF-SERVICE AND TRAFFIC SAFETY RELATIONSHIP: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS AND MULTILANE HIGH-SPEED ARTERIAL CORRIDORS
Title
LEVEL-OF-SERVICE AND TRAFFIC SAFETY RELATIONSHIP: AN EXPLORATORY ANALYSIS OF SIGNALIZED INTERSECTIONS AND MULTILANE HIGH-SPEED ARTERIAL CORRIDORS.
Creator
Almonte-Valdivia, Ana, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Since its inception in 1965, the Level-of-Service (LOS) has proved to be an important and practical "quality of service" indicator for transportation facilities around the world, widely used in the transportation and planning fields. The LOS rates these facilities' traffic operating conditions through the following delay-based indicators (ordered from best to worst conditions): A, B, C, D, E and F. This LOS rating has its foundation on quantifiable measures of effectiveness (MOEs) and on...
Show moreSince its inception in 1965, the Level-of-Service (LOS) has proved to be an important and practical "quality of service" indicator for transportation facilities around the world, widely used in the transportation and planning fields. The LOS rates these facilities' traffic operating conditions through the following delay-based indicators (ordered from best to worst conditions): A, B, C, D, E and F. This LOS rating has its foundation on quantifiable measures of effectiveness (MOEs) and on road users' perceptions; altogether, these measures define a LOS based on acceptable traffic operating conditions for the road user, implying that traffic safety is inherent to this definition. However, since 1994 safety has been excluded from the LOS definition since it cannot be quantified nor explicitly defined. The latter has been the motivation for research based on the LOS-Safety relationship, conducted at the University of Central Florida (UCF). Using data from two of the most studied transportation facility types within the field of traffic safety, signalized intersections and multilane high-speed arterial corridors, the research conducted has the following main objectives: to incorporate the LOS as a parameter in several traffic safety models, to extend the methodology adopted in previous studies to the subject matter, and to provide a platform for future transportation-related research on the LOS-Safety relationship. A meticulous data collection and preparation process was performed for the two LOS-Safety studies comprising this research. Apart from signalized intersections' and multilane-high speed arterial corridors' data, the other required types of information corresponded to crashes and road features, both obtained from FDOT's respective databases. In addition, the Highway Capacity Software (HCS) and the ArcGIS software package were extensively used for the data preparation. The result was a representative and robust dataset for each LOS-Safety study, to be later tested and analyzed with appropriate statistical methods. Regarding the LOS-Safety study for signalized intersections, two statistical techniques were used. The Generalized Estimating Equations (GEEs), the first technique, was used for the analyses considering all periods of a regular weekday (i.e. Monday through Friday): Early Morning, A.M. Peak, Midday, P.M. Peak and Late Evening; the second technique considered was the Negative Binomial, which was used for performing an individual analysis per period of the day. On the other hand, the LOS-Safety study for multilane high-speed arterial corridors made exclusive use of the Negative Binomial technique. An appropriate variable selection process was required for the respective model building and calibration procedures; the resulting models were built upon the six following response variables: total crashes, severe crashes, as well as rear-end, sideswipe, head-on and angle plus left-turn crashes. The final results proved to be meaningful for the understanding of traffic congestion effects on road safety, and on how they could be useful within the transportation planning scope. Overall, it was found that the risk for crash occurrence at signalized intersections and multilane high-speed arterial corridors is quite high between stable and unacceptable operating conditions; it was also found that this risk increases as it becomes later in the day. Among the significant factors within the signalized intersection-related models were LOS for the intersection as a whole, cycle length, lighting conditions, land use, traffic volume (major and minor roads), left-turn traffic volume (major road only), posted speed limit (major and minor roads), total number of through lanes (major and minor roads), overall total and total number of left-turn lanes (major road only), as well as county and period of the day (dummy variables). For multilane-high speed arterial corridors, the final models included LOS for the road section, average daily traffic (ADT), total number of through lanes in a single direction, total length of the road section, pavement surface type, as well as median and inside shoulder widths. A summary of the overall results per study, model implications and each LOS indicator is presented. Some of the final recommendations are to develop models for other crash types, to perform a LOS-Safety analysis at the approach-level for signalized intersections, as well as one that incorporates intersections within the arterial corridors' framework.
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Date Issued
2009
Identifier
CFE0002615, ucf:48285
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002615
Hierarchical Corridor Safety Analysis Using Multiple Approaches
Title
Hierarchical Corridor Safety Analysis Using Multiple Approaches.
Creator
Alarifi, Saif, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Tatari, Omer, Kuo, Pei-Fen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Traffic crashes are a major cause of concern globally. Extensive efforts from transportation professionals have been made to investigate new methods to identify the contributing factors to crashes at various locations on the road network. Corridors, among other road network's components, play a vital role in moving people and goods between primary zones in different areas, and the safety and operational improvements of them have been the focus of many studies since they carry the most traffic...
Show moreTraffic crashes are a major cause of concern globally. Extensive efforts from transportation professionals have been made to investigate new methods to identify the contributing factors to crashes at various locations on the road network. Corridors, among other road network's components, play a vital role in moving people and goods between primary zones in different areas, and the safety and operational improvements of them have been the focus of many studies since they carry the most traffic on the road network. Corridors contain mainly intersections and segments, and previous corridor studies have focused on a sole type of road entity. Having both components while analyzing corridors in addition to corridor-level variables in a hierarchical joint model framework would provide a comprehensive understanding of the existing safety problems along corridors. Therefore, this research aims to provide a complete understanding of the contributing factors to crashes at intersections and segments along corridors. In addition, it explores the associated crash risk factors with crash counts of different types and severity levels. The results reveal that accounting for the variations in traffic volumes and roadway characteristics, by estimating the model with random parameters, across corridors improved the model's performance. Also, the results confirm the importance of accounting for the spatial autocorrelation between road entities along the same corridor, and the adjacency-based first-order neighboring structure provides the best fit for the data among the other neighboring structures. Furthermore, it was found that the significant variables and their magnitudes are different across crash types and severity levels. Also, road designers and engineers should carefully identify the optimal number and location of driveways, median openings, and access points within the influence area of intersections since they significantly affect crashes along corridors. Lastly, this research suggests and justifies considering the proposed hierarchical joint model for future corridor studies
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0006967, ucf:51666
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006967
A Joint Econometric Approach for Modeling Crash Counts by Collision Type
Title
A Joint Econometric Approach for Modeling Crash Counts by Collision Type.
Creator
Bhowmik, Tanmoy, Eluru, Naveen, Abdel-Aty, Mohamed, Yasmin, Shamsunnahar, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
In recent years, there is growing recognition that common unobserved factors that influence crash frequency by one attribute level are also likely to influence crash frequency by other attribute levels. The most common approach employed to address the potential unobserved heterogeneity in safety literature is the development of multivariate crash frequency models. The current study proposes an alternative joint econometric framework to accommodate for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity ...
Show moreIn recent years, there is growing recognition that common unobserved factors that influence crash frequency by one attribute level are also likely to influence crash frequency by other attribute levels. The most common approach employed to address the potential unobserved heterogeneity in safety literature is the development of multivariate crash frequency models. The current study proposes an alternative joint econometric framework to accommodate for the presence of unobserved heterogeneity (-) referred to as joint negative binomial-multinomial logit fractional split (NB-MNLFS) model. Furthermore, the study undertakes a first of its kind comparison exercise between the most commonly used multivariate model (multivariate random parameter negative binomial model) and the proposed joint approach by generating an equivalent log-likelihood measure. The empirical analysis is based on the zonal level crash count data for different collision types from the state of Florida for the year 2015. The model results highlight the presence of common unobserved effects affecting the two components of the joint model as well as the presence of parameter heterogeneity. The equivalent log-likelihood and goodness of fit measures clearly highlight the superiority of the proposed joint model over the commonly used multivariate approach.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007392, ucf:52740
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007392