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DEBATING THEIR BELIEFS TO VICTORY: HOW THE BELIEFS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TRANSFORM THE RHETORIC USED IN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES
Title
DEBATING THEIR BELIEFS TO VICTORY: HOW THE BELIEFS OF PRESIDENTIAL CANDIDATES TRANSFORM THE RHETORIC USED IN PRESIDENTIAL DEBATES.
Creator
Marks, Aubrey, Pollock, Philip, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
As presidential candidates rhetorically articulate their beliefs during presidential debates, they reveal a lot about their underlying ideological beliefs. These beliefs were examined through the lens of an established methodology called the Operational Code, which uses a program to decipher a candidate's beliefs through what they say in debate transcripts. In this study, the belief trends of the Operational Codes of all presidential candidates from 1976-2012 were examined through a...
Show moreAs presidential candidates rhetorically articulate their beliefs during presidential debates, they reveal a lot about their underlying ideological beliefs. These beliefs were examined through the lens of an established methodology called the Operational Code, which uses a program to decipher a candidate's beliefs through what they say in debate transcripts. In this study, the belief trends of the Operational Codes of all presidential candidates from 1976-2012 were examined through a rhetorical lens, and it was found that rhetoric was indeed the driving force for the apparent changes in Operational Code beliefs. These changes were examined on a greater level of detail through four case studies, which illustrated the changes in Operational Code beliefs and rhetoric of Ronald Reagan, the incumbent presidential candidates, the 2004 election, and lastly, with the independent presidential candidates.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFH0004554, ucf:45160
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004554
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS
Title
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS.
Creator
Kazazis, Collin J., Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly...
Show moreThis thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly problematic. By utilizing the Operational Code, this study creates a new threat-perception variable based on cognitive constructs. Using a sample of US presidents, this new variable is tested in two different ways. The first examines three psychological characteristics (need for power, in-group bias, and distrust) from Leadership Trait Analysis that are thought to influence the level of threat perception in a leader. The second examines threat perception as an explanatory variable for the use of force alongside three other important control variables (economic violence, presidential popularity, and US power). The use of force variable is derived from Meernik's Use of Force dataset with each case in the dataset representing an opportunity to use force. The psychological data are derived from the verbal material of US presidents using at-a-distance methods found in the literature. OLS regression and probit are used to model the research questions. The project finds that levels of threat perception are indeed affected by a leader's level of distrust, in-group bias, and need for power. In addition, the new psychologically-derived threat-perception variable is a very good predictor of a president's use of force: presidents with higher levels of threat perception have a much higher probability of using force when the situation presents an opportunity.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000559, ucf:45649
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000559
Leader Psychology and Civil War Behavior
Title
Leader Psychology and Civil War Behavior.
Creator
Smith, Gary, Schafer, Mark, Kang, Kyungkook, Powell, Jonathan, Walker, Stephen, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
How do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their...
Show moreHow do the psychological characteristics of world leaders affect civil wars? Multiple studies have investigated how the personalities and beliefs of world leaders affect foreign policy preferences and outcomes. However, this research has yet to be applied to the intrastate context, which is problematic, given the growing importance of civil wars in the conflict-studies literature. This dissertation project utilizes at-a-distance profiling methods to investigate how leaders and their psychological characteristics can affect the likelihood, severity, and duration of civil conflicts. The findings of this research provide further support for the general hypothesis that leaders can, and often do, matter when trying to explain policy outcomes. More importantly, the findings demonstrate that leaders can influence the likelihood of civil war onset, the severity of civil wars, and their duration. Additionally, this project investigates the effect that civil war severity has on the psychological characteristics of leaders. Contrary to some previous research, however, the findings here indicate that leaders' psychology may not be sensitive to civil conflict severity.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFE0007375, ucf:52089
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0007375
Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code
Title
Explaining State Crisis Behavior Using the Operational Code.
Creator
George, William, Schafer, Mark, Dolan, Thomas, Vasquez, Joseph, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Does the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used...
Show moreDoes the operational code of a state's leadership have an effect on its behavior during foreign policy crises? Specifically, do states with more conflictual operational codes opt for a more conflictual response to crises, or do systemic and structural variables intervene to limit their significance? While the study of individual level psychology in international relations has been gaining momentum, the causal links between beliefs and behavior have yet to be solidified. This study used ordered logistic regression across three models to determine the effect of the operational code on state crisis behavior while controlling for key domestic and crisis dimension variables. Predicted probabilities were also used to better demonstrate the variables' substantive effects. The 50 cases used in this research are drawn from the International Crisis Behavior Dataset composed by Brecher and Wilkenfeld, and they focus on the United States as the major crisis actor. Operational code data were derived from computer-based content analysis using the Verbs In Context System (Walker, Schafer, and Young 1998). The theoretical goal of this paper was to explain variance in state crisis behavior through variations in the operational codes of US Presidents. The results demonstrate that the operational codes of leaders do affect state crisis behavior. Specifically, the operational code indices P1 and I1 show that a leader with a more conflictual view of the nature of the political universe and a conflictual direction of strategy is more likely to employ escalatory crisis behavior.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005336, ucf:50528
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005336
The Effects of State Leader Psychology on Civil War Lethality
Title
The Effects of State Leader Psychology on Civil War Lethality.
Creator
Kelley, Brandon, Vasquez, Joseph, Dolan, Thomas, Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Does a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits...
Show moreDoes a state leader's psychology influence lethality in civil wars? This thesis analyzes the aforementioned question during post-1945 civil wars. This particular subject, paying close attention to individual psychology at the state level, is gaining traction amongst scholars, though limited scholarly attention has addressed whether leader psychology is an indicator of conflict severity in terms of lethality. The psychology of the state leader in this thesis is assessed from leadership traits and operational code indices, specifically direction of strategy (I1) and interpretation of the nature of the political universe (P1). The data and cases used are pulled from datasets by Dr. James Fearon and the Correlates of War Project. The leaders' speech content is derived primarily from prepared material and analyzed using verbal content analysis via Profiler Plus. In measuring the effects of the predictors on my dependent variable, I chose the methodological approach of count data models, specifically, zero-truncated negative binomial regression. The results from the eight models I ran show that specific psychological traits, particularly a leader's I1 and P1 scores, level of distrust, and need for power, do play a significant role when determining the causes of civil war lethality.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005358, ucf:50469
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005358
Uncovering The Sub-Text: Presidents' Emotional Expressions and Major Uses of Force
Title
Uncovering The Sub-Text: Presidents' Emotional Expressions and Major Uses of Force.
Creator
Assaf, Elias, Houghton, David, Kim, Myunghee, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public...
Show moreThe global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public perception of the use of force. This thesis therefore measures expressed emotion and cognitive expressions in the form of expressed aggression, passivity, blame, praise, certainty, realism, and optimism as a means of predicting subsequent major uses of force. Since aggression and blame are precipitated by anger and perceived vulnerability, they are theorized to foreshadow increased uses of force (Gardner and Moore 2008). Conversely, passivity and praise are indicative of empathy and joy respectively, and are not expected to precede aggressive behavior conducted to maintain emotional regulation (Roberton, Daffer, and Bucks 2012). Additionally, the three cognitive variables of interest expand on existing literature on beliefs and decision making expounded by such authors as Walker (2010), Winter (2003) and Hermann (2003). DICTION 6.0 is used to analyze all text data of presidential news conferences, candidate debates, and State of the Union speeches given between 1945 and 2000 stored by The American Presidency Project (Hart and Carroll 2012). Howell and Pevehouse's (2005) quantitative assessment of quarterly U.S. uses of force between 1945 and 2000 is employed as a means of quantifying instances of major uses of force. Results show systematic differences among the traits expressed by presidents, with most expressions staying consistent across spontaneous speech contexts. Additionally, State of the Union speeches consistently yielded the highest scores across the expressed traits measured; supporting the theory that prepared speech is used to emotionally frame situations and setup emotional interpretations of events to present to the public. Time sensitive regression analyses indicate that expressed aggression within the context of State of the Union Addresses is the only significant predictor of major uses of force by the administration. That being said, other studies may use the comparative findings presented herein to further establish a robust model of personality that accounts for individual dispositions toward emotional expression as a means of framing the emotional interpretation of events by audiences.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005300, ucf:50513
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005300