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PLURALISM AND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM: A POLICY ANALYSIS OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM FROM FECA TO BCRA
Title
PLURALISM AND PRESIDENTIAL CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM: A POLICY ANALYSIS OF CAMPAIGN FINANCE REFORM FROM FECA TO BCRA.
Creator
Dillon, Tully, Dolan, Chris, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
One of the underlying themes in American politics is that the addition of campaign finance laws at the presidential election level will have a negative relationship with amount of influence and money in campaigns and the amount of regulation. In other words, as regulation goes up the amount of money and influence will decrease. However, with the recent 2004 presidential election this concept has surely been shown to be problematic, at least at the outset. The purpose of this thesis is to...
Show moreOne of the underlying themes in American politics is that the addition of campaign finance laws at the presidential election level will have a negative relationship with amount of influence and money in campaigns and the amount of regulation. In other words, as regulation goes up the amount of money and influence will decrease. However, with the recent 2004 presidential election this concept has surely been shown to be problematic, at least at the outset. The purpose of this thesis is to examine this relationship and to further expand upon the limited knowledge of this sub-field of political science. This thesis will suggest that the intended result of campaign finance reform may not necessarily be realized. Subsequently, we must ask ourselves whether or not campaign finance regulations actually result in the intended consequences. Federal campaign finance laws do not necessarily reduce the amount of money and influence by special interests in presidential elections. In examining presidential campaign finance regulations do higher levels of regulations really have an impact upon the amount of money (influence) collected and spent in a particular campaign? The McCain-Feingold Campaign Finance Act of 2002 (officially implemented in 2002), or the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act (BCRA), was a rudimentary attempt to dramatically change the electoral system in terms of money. In fact, this bill was the most comprehensive overhaul of the electoral system in a quarter of a century (at least since the 1970's) and one of the underlying reasons, arguably, for the bill was to limit soft money and interest group contributions to presidential candidates or to the presidential campaigns during a given election cycle. Basically, the attempt was made to limit the "money" in politics and particularly in presidential campaigns. However, as most media outlets have claimed (such as CNN) that money or contributions given by individuals and various organizations and the amount of money spent by each campaign (President Bush and Senator Kerry) in the most recent presidential election of 2004 surpassed that of any previous presidential election cycle. Part of the reasoning for the limitation of soft money in presidential elections is the whimsical "myth" that more money in presidential elections will inevitably lead to more influence of the executive branch by big time donors such as labor unions, business, wealthy persons, and by interest groups to name just a few. In other words, wealthy interests such as those mentioned in the previous sentence, would theoretically have a greater impact on the electoral process than by individuals. This concept is briefly examined. Of course, the data will come from many sources with government resources being the dominant resource. The FEC began collecting campaign finance data since the 1970's and much of the data comes from published data files from the FEC. Additionally, data will be taken from other government resources such as the U.S. Census Bureau and the U.S Bureau of Labor statistics. Other data contained within in this will be properly noted.
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Date Issued
2006
Identifier
CFE0001009, ucf:46839
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001009
Public Opinion and the President's Use of Executive Orders: Aggregate- and Individual-Level Analyses Across Time
Title
Public Opinion and the President's Use of Executive Orders: Aggregate- and Individual-Level Analyses Across Time.
Creator
Jones, Brett, Lanier, Drew, Knuckey, Jonathan, Ilderton, Nathan, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Presidential approval ratings are a political resource that presidents and their advisors hope to influence through strategic action in order to achieve their policy goals (McAvoy 2008, 284). Through 1999, scholarly literature had largely ignored the president's use of unilateral powers. Since Moe and Howell (1999a, 1999b), however, the literature on the unilateral presidency has expanded rapidly. Despite the rapid growth of literature examining the unilateral presidency, and 45 years of...
Show morePresidential approval ratings are a political resource that presidents and their advisors hope to influence through strategic action in order to achieve their policy goals (McAvoy 2008, 284). Through 1999, scholarly literature had largely ignored the president's use of unilateral powers. Since Moe and Howell (1999a, 1999b), however, the literature on the unilateral presidency has expanded rapidly. Despite the rapid growth of literature examining the unilateral presidency, and 45 years of presidential approval ratings literature, literature examining the link between the president's use of unilateral powers and subsequent presidential approval ratings is virtually nonexistent. Existing research has not statistically examined what effect, if any, the president's issuing executive orders has on subsequent job approval ratings. This thesis seeks to address that research gap. By modeling aggregate and individual-level presidential approval ratings, using fixed-effect models, OLS regression, and binary logistic regression, this thesis finds evidence indicating the president's issuing of executive orders has a negative impact on the subsequent presidential job approval ratings that individuals report. If an executive order is salient to the public, presidents receive lower presidential approval ratings from persons of all political parties; however, if the executive order is non-salient then presidents only receive lower presidential approval ratings from members of their own political party. Members of the opposition party report higher presidential approval ratings when the president issued non-salient executive orders. Thus, this thesis concludes that the president's issuing of executive orders has significant effects on subsequent presidential job approval ratings, and future research should be conducted to explore this relationship further.
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Date Issued
2016
Identifier
CFE0006123, ucf:51164
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0006123
Institutional vs. Non-Institutional Sources of Presidential Influence: Explaining Congressional-Presidential Relations in the Age of Polarization
Title
Institutional vs. Non-Institutional Sources of Presidential Influence: Explaining Congressional-Presidential Relations in the Age of Polarization.
Creator
Culp, Derek, Ilderton, Nathan, Lanier, Drew, Houghton, David, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis examines the determinants of presidential success with Congress. Seven essential sources of presidential power in the current era of party polarization were derived from the extant literature, and these factors were delineated into the institutional (formal) and non-institutional (informal) policymaking tools of the presidency. Variables that explain presidential legislative success include: intraparty support in Congress, the use of veto bargaining, executive orders and signing...
Show moreThis thesis examines the determinants of presidential success with Congress. Seven essential sources of presidential power in the current era of party polarization were derived from the extant literature, and these factors were delineated into the institutional (formal) and non-institutional (informal) policymaking tools of the presidency. Variables that explain presidential legislative success include: intraparty support in Congress, the use of veto bargaining, executive orders and signing statements (institutional factors); as well as public approval, 'going public,' and strategic lobbying of Congress (non-institutional factors). Case studies of the presidencies of Bill Clinton and George W. Bush analyze the role of these policymaking tools in four key legislative battles of each presidency. Regression models were constructed to test the effect of these variables on presidential legislative success. The case studies elucidate the relationship between non-institutional factors and their subsequent impact on key presidential policy priorities, particularly the interaction between public approval and going public. Findings indicate a positive relationship between a president's strategic bargaining ability with Congress and subsequent legislative success. Findings also show no significant relationship between intraparty support and presidential success when focusing on only key legislative battles between the executive and legislative branches, contrary to the findings of prior research. Future research might examine the various relationships between these policymaking tools and how they affect the nature of presidential power in the current era of heightened party polarization and ideological homogeneity.
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Date Issued
2013
Identifier
CFE0004832, ucf:49705
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0004832
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL DESIGN: THE COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENTIAL REGIMES
Title
HUMAN DEVELOPMENT AND INSTITUTIONAL DESIGN: THE COMPARATIVE PERFORMANCE OF PRESIDENTIAL REGIMES.
Creator
Hristakopoulos, Michael, Wilson, Bruce, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Measures of human development, no matter their specific methodology, have always placed Costa Rica substantially higher than its neighbor, Nicaragua, but no apparent governmental, resource, or historical discrepancy can account for this gap. This thesis uses two case studies to examine this phenomenon from three different theoretical perspectives, and conclude which has the greatest explanatory power to account for the disparity between these two particular governments. Political scientists...
Show moreMeasures of human development, no matter their specific methodology, have always placed Costa Rica substantially higher than its neighbor, Nicaragua, but no apparent governmental, resource, or historical discrepancy can account for this gap. This thesis uses two case studies to examine this phenomenon from three different theoretical perspectives, and conclude which has the greatest explanatory power to account for the disparity between these two particular governments. Political scientists have noted that parliamentary systems lend themselves to better governance when compared with their presidential countersystems. Shugart and Carey (1992) cite peculiarities within some presidential models which may account for lower rates of human development. Another approach, offered by Tsebelis (2002) produces a more generalized explanation of this phenomenon, while Lawrence Harrison (1985) offers an entirely different, culture-based explanation. This thesis seeks to examine the validity of these claims, using Costa Rica and Nicaragua as case studies. Limiting the thesis to these two presidential governments will highlight the variation that exists within the presidential model, and possibly shed light on the most significant variables.
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Date Issued
2011
Identifier
CFH0003801, ucf:44777
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0003801
The Pre-Emptive Election: How the Mass Media Determine Winners and Losers in Presidential Primaries, 1988-2012
Title
The Pre-Emptive Election: How the Mass Media Determine Winners and Losers in Presidential Primaries, 1988-2012.
Creator
Stewart, Josh, Pollock, Philip, Holsenbeck, Daniel, Lanier, Drew, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The function of the mass media in the democratic process is crucial to an informed public and vital to a democratic system. One primary role of the media is that of gatekeeper between political candidates and the public. The influence the media has on the electorate is heightened during the primary process of presidential elections and even more so in the pre-primary season when a large majority of potential voters have yet to form opinions of candidates. The effects of the media in the pre...
Show moreThe function of the mass media in the democratic process is crucial to an informed public and vital to a democratic system. One primary role of the media is that of gatekeeper between political candidates and the public. The influence the media has on the electorate is heightened during the primary process of presidential elections and even more so in the pre-primary season when a large majority of potential voters have yet to form opinions of candidates. The effects of the media in the pre-primary season of politics play out in significant relationships where media coverage results in measurable increases in campaign contributions to the candidates included in this research, while the tone of content has no measurable influence. Although models that tested the ability to predict success in primaries failed to reach statistically significant levels, the raw data show high correlations between media coverage and candidate success.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005423, ucf:50407
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005423
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS
Title
THE PSYCHOLOGICAL BASIS OF THREAT PERCEPTION AND ITS EFFECT ON THE USE OF FORCE BY US PRESIDENTS.
Creator
Kazazis, Collin J., Schafer, Mark, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly...
Show moreThis thesis creates a new variable for threat perception built upon psychological concepts and then applies this new variable to the question of why leaders use military force in certain situations. The concept of threat perception has a long history in the field in terms of its effect on leaders choosing to use military force. However, while the concept of threat perception is inherently psychological, previous proxies for the variable have included only situational factors, which is highly problematic. By utilizing the Operational Code, this study creates a new threat-perception variable based on cognitive constructs. Using a sample of US presidents, this new variable is tested in two different ways. The first examines three psychological characteristics (need for power, in-group bias, and distrust) from Leadership Trait Analysis that are thought to influence the level of threat perception in a leader. The second examines threat perception as an explanatory variable for the use of force alongside three other important control variables (economic violence, presidential popularity, and US power). The use of force variable is derived from Meernik's Use of Force dataset with each case in the dataset representing an opportunity to use force. The psychological data are derived from the verbal material of US presidents using at-a-distance methods found in the literature. OLS regression and probit are used to model the research questions. The project finds that levels of threat perception are indeed affected by a leader's level of distrust, in-group bias, and need for power. In addition, the new psychologically-derived threat-perception variable is a very good predictor of a president's use of force: presidents with higher levels of threat perception have a much higher probability of using force when the situation presents an opportunity.
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Date Issued
2019
Identifier
CFH2000559, ucf:45649
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000559
THE NEWS MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION: THE PRESS COVERAGE OF U.S. INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS AND ITS EFFECT ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL
Title
THE NEWS MEDIA AND PUBLIC OPINION: THE PRESS COVERAGE OF U.S. INTERNATIONAL CONFLICTS AND ITS EFFECT ON PRESIDENTIAL APPROVAL.
Creator
McCullough, Kristen, Fine, Terri, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
A standing phenomenon exists in the fields of both political science and communication studies regarding the impact that the news media have on public opinion. This study recognizes the average American citizens' reliance on the press to gain information about international conflicts. Hence, it is theorized that news reports on a political occurrence could very well influence the mass-level opinion of an event such that positive news stories generate positive public opinion, and vice...
Show moreA standing phenomenon exists in the fields of both political science and communication studies regarding the impact that the news media have on public opinion. This study recognizes the average American citizens' reliance on the press to gain information about international conflicts. Hence, it is theorized that news reports on a political occurrence could very well influence the mass-level opinion of an event such that positive news stories generate positive public opinion, and vice versa. Since foreign crises define a presidency in the public's minds, presidential approval ratings determine the degree to which the news media manipulate public opinion. Specifically, news media coverage of two international conflicts, the Vietnam and Persian Gulf Wars, are analyzed in light of their effect on American citizens' public opinion of Presidents Lyndon B. Johnson and George H. W. Bush, respectively.
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Date Issued
2009
Identifier
CFE0002701, ucf:48167
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002701
Uncovering The Sub-Text: Presidents' Emotional Expressions and Major Uses of Force
Title
Uncovering The Sub-Text: Presidents' Emotional Expressions and Major Uses of Force.
Creator
Assaf, Elias, Houghton, David, Kim, Myunghee, Dolan, Thomas, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public...
Show moreThe global context of decision making continues to adapt in response to international threats. Political psychologists have therefore considered decision making processes regarding major uses of force a key area of interest. Although presidential personality has been widely studied as a mitigating factor in the decision making patterns leading to uses of force, traditional theories have not accounted for the emotions of individuals as they affect political actions and are used to frame public perception of the use of force. This thesis therefore measures expressed emotion and cognitive expressions in the form of expressed aggression, passivity, blame, praise, certainty, realism, and optimism as a means of predicting subsequent major uses of force. Since aggression and blame are precipitated by anger and perceived vulnerability, they are theorized to foreshadow increased uses of force (Gardner and Moore 2008). Conversely, passivity and praise are indicative of empathy and joy respectively, and are not expected to precede aggressive behavior conducted to maintain emotional regulation (Roberton, Daffer, and Bucks 2012). Additionally, the three cognitive variables of interest expand on existing literature on beliefs and decision making expounded by such authors as Walker (2010), Winter (2003) and Hermann (2003). DICTION 6.0 is used to analyze all text data of presidential news conferences, candidate debates, and State of the Union speeches given between 1945 and 2000 stored by The American Presidency Project (Hart and Carroll 2012). Howell and Pevehouse's (2005) quantitative assessment of quarterly U.S. uses of force between 1945 and 2000 is employed as a means of quantifying instances of major uses of force. Results show systematic differences among the traits expressed by presidents, with most expressions staying consistent across spontaneous speech contexts. Additionally, State of the Union speeches consistently yielded the highest scores across the expressed traits measured; supporting the theory that prepared speech is used to emotionally frame situations and setup emotional interpretations of events to present to the public. Time sensitive regression analyses indicate that expressed aggression within the context of State of the Union Addresses is the only significant predictor of major uses of force by the administration. That being said, other studies may use the comparative findings presented herein to further establish a robust model of personality that accounts for individual dispositions toward emotional expression as a means of framing the emotional interpretation of events by audiences.
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Date Issued
2014
Identifier
CFE0005300, ucf:50513
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0005300
THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT ON DEMOCRATIC WARFARE
Title
THE EFFECT OF UNEMPLOYMENT ON DEMOCRATIC WARFARE.
Creator
Rakower, Andres, Vasquez, Joseph Paul, Kang, Kyungkook, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
This study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many...
Show moreThis study was done to see the effects of a war on the economy and the internal politics of the United States. In selecting the engagement, we would study we agreed the Iraq War would be aided by a large amount of sampling of public opinion that was more nuanced than in previous wars. The Iraq War was a very complicated war, as it was controversial from the beginning and became a political issue while continuing to be a war fought by Americans abroad. Based on the literature, there were many starting effects and assumptions that were accounted for such as the 'rally round the flag effect.' As a historical landmark, the Iraq War is important for being a significant conflict after the Vietnam War, another very controversial conflict in the eyes of the American public. The hypothesis that I presented were not supported by the data. The impact of the war on the economy was not strong enough that it would create pressure for the sort of model I created to apply. In this model the economic problems faced domestically could lead to more unemployment and therefore to higher military recruitment rates. While this was partially true in 2008, the consequence was not a significantly higher amount of people in the military. Ultimately, this project requires to be done in a more thorough setting where effects may be compared with those of other similar countries in similar scenarios.
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Date Issued
2018
Identifier
CFH2000435, ucf:45816
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH2000435
A CUP OF TEA: A STUDY OF THE TEA PARTY CAUCUS IN THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES
Title
A CUP OF TEA: A STUDY OF THE TEA PARTY CAUCUS IN THE UNITED STATES HOUSE OF REPRESENTATIVES.
Creator
Phillips, Stephen, Pollock, Philip, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Over the course of the last few years, a new movement has taken the American political system by storm, the Tea Party. The movement has not only captivated our media but also the minds of ordinary Americans and political elites. According to popular consensus and academic opinion, the Tea Party is comprised of a group of conservative-leaning Republicans who want a smaller government and a lesser tax burden. This is what we think of the Tea Party, but is it true? It is perceived that Tea Party...
Show moreOver the course of the last few years, a new movement has taken the American political system by storm, the Tea Party. The movement has not only captivated our media but also the minds of ordinary Americans and political elites. According to popular consensus and academic opinion, the Tea Party is comprised of a group of conservative-leaning Republicans who want a smaller government and a lesser tax burden. This is what we think of the Tea Party, but is it true? It is perceived that Tea Party members differ significantly from their Republican colleagues in the House of Representatives, but do they? Do they truly represent the Tea Party philosophy and agenda? By creating an original data set on the Republican members of the United States House of Representatives, and examining variables such as the political lean, economic and employment make-up of a member's district, their endorsements and incumbency, as well as high priority legislative votes from the 112th Congress, I will be able to investigate the characteristics and tendencies of Tea Party Caucus members. Once one looks at the 242 member House Republican Caucus and further examines the sixty members of the Tea Party Caucus, the data shows that Tea Party Caucus members largely originate from safe Republican districts and have served in previous congressional terms. Analysis shows that Tea Party Caucus members do vary significantly from their House Republican colleagues when examining their districts, but do not vary as considerably when examining their voting patterns.
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Date Issued
2012
Identifier
CFH0004151, ucf:44851
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFH0004151