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BUFFER TECHNIQUES FOR STOCHASTIC RESOURCE CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH STOCHASTIC TASK INSERTIONS PROBLEMS
Title
BUFFER TECHNIQUES FOR STOCHASTIC RESOURCE CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH STOCHASTIC TASK INSERTIONS PROBLEMS.
Creator
Grey, Jennifer, Armacost, Robert, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
Project managers are faced with the challenging task of managing an environment filled with uncertainties that may lead to multiple disruptions during project execution. In particular, they are frequently confronted with planning for routine and non-routine unplanned work: known, identified, tasks that may or may not occur depending upon various, often unpredictable, factors. This problem is known as the stochastic task insertion problem, where tasks of deterministic duration occur...
Show moreProject managers are faced with the challenging task of managing an environment filled with uncertainties that may lead to multiple disruptions during project execution. In particular, they are frequently confronted with planning for routine and non-routine unplanned work: known, identified, tasks that may or may not occur depending upon various, often unpredictable, factors. This problem is known as the stochastic task insertion problem, where tasks of deterministic duration occur stochastically. Traditionally, project managers may include an extra margin within deterministic task times or an extra time buffer may be allotted at the end of the project schedule to protect the final project completion milestone. Little scientific guidance is available to better integrate buffers strategically into the project schedule. Motivated by the Critical Chain and Buffer Management approach of Goldratt, this research identifies, defines, and demonstrates new buffer sizing techniques to improve project duration and stability metrics associated with the stochastic resource constrained project scheduling problem with stochastic task insertions. Specifically, this research defines and compares partial buffer sizing strategies for projects with varying levels of resource and network complexity factors as well as the level and location of the stochastically occurring tasks. Several project metrics may be impacted by the stochastic occurrence or non-occurrence of a task such as the project makespan and the project stability. New duration and stability metrics are developed in this research and are used to evaluate the effectiveness of the proposed buffer sizing techniques. These "robustness measures" are computed through the comparison of the characteristics of the initial schedule (termed the infeasible base schedule), a modified base schedule (or as-run schedule) and an optimized version of the base schedule (or perfect knowledge schedule). Seven new buffer sizing techniques are introduced in this research. Three are based on a fixed percentage of task duration and the remaining four provide variable buffer sizes based upon the location of the stochastic task in the schedule and knowledge of the task stochasticity characteristic. Experimental analysis shows that partial buffering produces improvements in the project stability and duration metrics when compared to other baseline scheduling approaches. Three of the new partial buffering techniques produced improvements in project metrics. One of these partial buffers was based on a fixed percentage of task duration and the other two used a variable buffer size based on knowledge of the location of the task in the project network. This research provides project schedulers with new partial buffering techniques and recommendations for the type of partial buffering technique that should be utilized when project duration and stability performance improvements are desired. When a project scheduler can identify potential unplanned work and where it might occur, the use of these partial buffer techniques will yield a better estimated makespan. Furthermore, it will result in less disruption to the planned schedule and minimize the amount of time that specific tasks will have to move to accommodate the unplanned tasks.
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Date Issued
2007
Identifier
CFE0001584, ucf:52850
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0001584
STOCHASTIC RESOURCE CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH STOCHASTIC TASK INSERTION PROBLEMS
Title
STOCHASTIC RESOURCE CONSTRAINED PROJECT SCHEDULING WITH STOCHASTIC TASK INSERTION PROBLEMS.
Creator
Archer, Sandra, Armacost, Robert, University of Central Florida
Abstract / Description
The area of focus for this research is the Stochastic Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (SRCPSP) with Stochastic Task Insertion (STI). The STI problem is a specific form of the SRCPSP, which may be considered to be a cross between two types of problems in the general form: the Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem, and the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem. The stochastic nature of this problem is in the occurrence/non-occurrence of tasks with deterministic...
Show moreThe area of focus for this research is the Stochastic Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem (SRCPSP) with Stochastic Task Insertion (STI). The STI problem is a specific form of the SRCPSP, which may be considered to be a cross between two types of problems in the general form: the Stochastic Project Scheduling Problem, and the Resource Constrained Project Scheduling Problem. The stochastic nature of this problem is in the occurrence/non-occurrence of tasks with deterministic duration. Researchers Selim (2002) and Grey (2007) laid the groundwork for the research on this problem. Selim (2002) developed a set of robustness metrics and used these to evaluate two initial baseline (predictive) scheduling techniques, optimistic (0% buffer) and pessimistic (100% buffer), where none or all of the stochastic tasks were scheduled, respectively. Grey (2007) expanded the research by developing a new partial buffering strategy for the initial baseline predictive schedule for this problem and found the partial buffering strategy to be superior to Selim's "extreme" buffering approach. The current research continues this work by focusing on resource aspects of the problem, new buffering approaches, and a new rescheduling method. If resource usage is important to project managers, then a set of metrics that describes changes to the resource flow would be important to measure between the initial baseline predictive schedule and the final "as-run" schedule. Two new sets of resource metrics were constructed regarding resource utilization and resource flow. Using these new metrics, as well as the Selim/Grey metrics, a new buffering approach was developed that used resource information to size the buffers. The resource-sized buffers did not show to have significant improvement over Grey's 50% buffer used as a benchmark. The new resource metrics were used to validate that the 50% buffering strategy is superior to the 0% or 100% buffering by Selim. Recognizing that partial buffers appear to be the most promising initial baseline development approach for STI problems, and understanding that experienced project managers may be able to predict stochastic probabilities based on prior projects, the next phase of the research developed a new set of buffering strategies where buffers are inserted that are proportional to the probability of occurrence. The results of this proportional buffering strategy were very positive, with the majority of the metrics (both robustness and resource), except for stability metrics, improved by using the proportional buffer. Finally, it was recognized that all research thus far for the SRCPSP with STI focused solely on the development of predictive schedules. Therefore, the final phase of this research developed a new reactive strategy that tested three different rescheduling points during schedule eventuation when a complete rescheduling of the latter portion of the schedule would occur. The results of this new reactive technique indicate that rescheduling improves the schedule performance in only a few metrics under very specific network characteristics (those networks with the least restrictive parameters). This research was conducted with extensive use of Base SAS v9.2 combined with SAS/OR procedures to solve project networks, solve resource flow problems, and implement reactive scheduling heuristics. Additionally, Base SAS code was paired with Visual Basic for Applications in Excel 2003 to implement an automated Gantt chart generator that provided visual inspection for validation of the repair heuristics. The results of this research when combined with the results of Selim and Grey provide strong guidance for project managers regarding how to develop baseline predictive schedules and how to reschedule the project as stochastic tasks (e.g. unplanned work) do or do not occur. Specifically, the results and recommendations are provided in a summary tabular format that describes the recommended initial baseline development approach if a project manager has a good idea of the level and location of the stochasticity for the network, highlights two cases where rescheduling during schedule eventuation may be beneficial, and shows when buffering proportional to the probability of occurrence is recommended, or not recommended, or the cases where the evidence is inconclusive.
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Date Issued
2008
Identifier
CFE0002491, ucf:47673
Format
Document (PDF)
PURL
http://purl.flvc.org/ucf/fd/CFE0002491